The last three outs are the toughtest: given the unpredictability of closers, if the Phillies' Billy Wagner makes a free-agent tour this offseason, teams might say, 'sorry! No thank you!'

The best way to stump a major league general manager these days is to ask, "How do you find a closer?" "I wish I knew," A's G.M. Billy Beane says.

Most G.M.s know this much: Except in rare cases, it's ludicrous to pay big money to closers who work 60 to 70 innings a year and frequently unravel because of injury or ineffectiveness.

As the week began, the percentage of blown saves in Major League Baseball had increased by only 1.4 percent compared with last season. But more than one-third of the teams had ninth-inning concerns.

Five front-line closers already have been on the disabled list. Old reliables such as the Yankees' Mariano Rivera and the Red Sox's Keith Foulke are teetering. On the flip side, unheralded journeymen are emerging, seemingly out of nowhere, as ninth-inning maestros.

"They're like place-kickers in football, goaltenders in hockey--they go hot and cold," Brewers G.M. Doug Melvin says. "You've got to have a sense of when to hold onto 'em and when you think they're maxed out."

Melvin has picked back-to-back closers off the baseball scrapheap, hitting on Dan Kolb after signing him as a minor league free agent in 2003, then on Derrick Turnbow after claiming him on waivers last October.

The Cubs, by contrast, have been in scramble mode for the past two seasons, flopping with one closer after another trying to replace injured Joe Borowski. The Cubs' only consolation: They didn't sign Armando Benitez or Troy Percival, the top two free-agent closers available last offseason; both are on the D.L.

How do you find a closer?

Rockies G.M. Dan O'Dowd says it best: "I think you've got to get lucky."

This Pirate could be a steal

After struggling with the Phillies in 2003, Pirates closer Jose Mesa generated little trade interest last season, even though he converted 22 of 23 save opportunities before the All-Star break.

That could change this season, given the large number of closers who are struggling or injured. Mesa, who will turn 39 on Sunday, began the week 12-for-12 in save opportunities and had converted 22 consecutive saves including last season. In two seasons with the Pirates, he's 55-for-60 in save chances, ranking with the game's elite.

True, the pressure on Mesa would increase if he were closing for a contender. But any team that acquires Mesa would owe him only a prorated portion of his $2 million salary--a minimal financial risk.

Three up, three down

Three hot closers

1 Joe Nathan, Twins. Nathan began the week having allowed a run in only nine of his past 89 appearances, including once in 16 outings this season.

2 B.J. Ryan, Orioles. A lefthander with deceptiveness and a filthy slider, Ryan began the week leading A.L. closers with 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

3 Francisco Rodriguez, Angels. Who needs Troy Percival? Rodriguez converted 10 of his first 11 save chances as he struck out 23 and walked two.

Three starters who should be closers

1 Kerry Wood, Cubs. His mechanics might prevent him from ever staying healthy, but a change in roles is worth exploring,

2 Scott Kazmir, Devil Rays. A 6-0, 170-pound lefthander who reminds scouts of Billy Wagner, Kazmir would need to improve his command to close games.

3 Vicente Padilla, Phillies. Viewed as a potential closer when the Phillies acquired him in the Curt Schilling trade with Arizona, Padilla would benefit from returning to the bullpen.

Three bargains at $350,000 or less

1 Derrick Turnbow, Brewers, He was projected to be a seventh-inning guy when he was claimed off waivers from the Angels. Now, he's a closer.

2 Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks, Sidelined virtually all of last season, Lyon initially wasn't even a lock to make the team. He began the week leading the majors with 13 saves.

3 Yhency Brazoban, Dodgers. A converted outfielder who began pitching in 2002, Brazoban made good on 11 of 12 save chances in replacing injured Eric Gagne, who returned last weekend.

INSIDE DISH

It looks as if the Yankees overreacted by trading RHP Javier Vazquez to the Diamondbacks for LHP Randy Johnson. As Vazquez began throwing more crisply and consistently in spring training, he realized how much he was affected by the pain and weakness he had experienced behind his right shoulder blade in the second half of last season. "It altered his release point, impacted his velocity and ultimately crushed his confidence," a friend of Vazquez says. Vazquez was an All-Star before struggling in the final two months. His velocity, which had dropped to 89 to 90 mph, is back at 93 to 94. * The biggest difference in Marlins LHP Dontrolle Willis is that he is pounding righthanders inside, holding them to a. 196 batting average compared with .288 last season. Willis worked with new pitching coach Mark Wiley in spring training to keep his chin in line when throwing to righties. By going inside on them, Willis opens up the outside comer, adding to his effectiveness. He also is changing speeds on his fastball, showing an 87-mph batting practice version on occasion. * The Padres expressed interest in Mets RF Mike Cameron last week, but the teams agreed to table the discussions. The Mets currently have no interest in trading Cameron but recognize he ultimately could land them a quality reliever. The Orioles, another team deep in relief pitching, also could emerge as a suitor for Cameron. * Don't look for A's RHP Octavio Dotel to bring much in a trade; he should be a matchup reliever, not a closer. Dotel's long arm action is one reason he struggles against lefthanded hitters, who have a .991 on-base plus slugging percentage against him. Righthanders have a .448 OPS against Dotel. "He shows you the ball right from the get-go," one scout says. * The return of closer RHP Eric Gagne not only deepens the Dodgers' bullpen, but it also should enable manager Jim Tracy to ask less of his starters and start matching up with his relievers earlier in games. The Dodgers' rotation began the week ranked 11th in the National League in ERA. * After Red Sox LF Manny Ramirez was hit by pitches in back-to-back games, one scout expressed surprise that the slugger isn't plunked more. "Manny guesses breaking ball a lot, and he's (hanging) over the plate;' says the scout. "Both Manny and (Vladimir) Guerrero should get hit 30 times a year. The way to get 'era out is up and in. And they're out over the plate." * Tigers RHP Jeremy Bonderman, 22, is displaying the game awareness of a veteran, pitching more aggressively after getting leads and increasing his intensity in his final inning. "He has the makeup of a Roger Clemens," Tigers DH Dmitri Young says. * The Rockies could be active traders before the July 31 nonwaiver deadline, dangling not only CF Preston Wilson and possibly 1B Todd Helton but also RHPs Jason Jennings and Shawn Chacon and LHP Joe Kennedy. Jennings might be worn down by Coors Field after averaging 189 innings for the Rockies the past three seasons. * Orioles RHP Daniel Cabrera topped out at 99 mph in eight shutout innings against the Twins and threw more than 20 pitches at 98 or faster--while mixing in a vicious 89-mph slider. "I couldn't hit the fastball. I couldn't hit the slider. I couldn't even see them," Twins 1B/3B Terry Tiffee told manager Ron Gardenhire.