Can the Reds roll on? In a word, no

Sporting News, The, June 7, 2004 by Ken Rosenthal

All right, I'm the guy who ranked the Reds 30th--dead last--in a preseason power poll. I also had the Brewers 25th and the Pirates 29th, which shows how much I knew about the wacky National League Central. Let me also confess that I picked Derek Jeter to win the A.L. batting title--a prediction that is looking good, presuming Jeter hits about .700 the rest of the way.

Hey, I owe the Reds an apology, but that's as far as I'll go. Still, I don't think the Reds are going to win the N.L. Central. I'll be surprised if they finish above .500. And the same goes for the two other payroll-slashing demons from the Central, the Brewers and Pirates.

As the week began, every team in the Central was .500 or better. According to STATS Inc., that's a first this late in the season since the division expanded to six clubs in 1998. As much as Major League Baseball would like to credit increased revenue sharing, the reality is that the Reds, Brewers and Pirates received more than $36 million combined from their wealthier cousins in 2003--but cut payroll by more than $58 million combined from '03 to '04.

It's quite a racket, but as long as such teams continue to show progress--"we're not pocketing the money, we're spending it on our farm systems"--few will complain. The Reds expected to be competitive a year ago and were only 2 1/2 games out of first place on July 2. But injuries, poor performances and cost-cutting trades wrecked their season. Their outlook for 2004 under Dan O'Brien, a new general manager, and Dave Miley, a manager entering his first full season, didn't look promising.

Surprise! Outfielders Ken Griffey, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns already have started more games together than they did last season, and the Reds' record in those games is 17-6. First baseman Sean Casey, displaying renewed power, began the week leading the N.L. with a .387 batting average. And the Reds' much-maligned pitching, while ranked 13th in the league in ERA, is at least giving the team's powerhouse offense a chance to pound out victories.

Alas, it won't last.

At the start of the week, the Reds had outscored their opponents by only one run, a differential that suggested their 29-20 record should have been closer to .500. The team ranked 13th in the N.L. in on-base/slugging percentage out of the leadoff spot and 14th in OPS against left-handers. Casey won't threaten .400 all season. Dunn experienced a severe drop-off in May. I wouldn't bet on Kearns, Griffey and shortstop Barry Larkin staying healthy. And one executive says the Reds' bench is the weakest in the league.

The moment the Reds' offense slows down, their starting pitching will be exposed; Aaron Harang, Paul Wilson and Cory Lidle are 15-6 combined, in part because of outstanding run support. Cincinnati's starters are all righthanded sinkerballers who thrive at Great American Ball Park, where the infield grass is kept high. On the road, only the Rockies and Diamondbacks have higher team ERAs in the N.L.

As good as reliever John Riedling and closer Danny Graves have been, the Reds certainly could use righthanded setup man Chris Reitsma, whom O'Brien traded to the Braves for Class AAA lefthander Jung Bong and righthander Bubba Nelson in late March. O'Brien might have gotten more for Reitsma if he had waited until July. Neither Bong nor Nelson is distinguishing himself at Class AAA, and the Reds' other minor league options also are unappealing.

The good news is that the Reds are in position to add payroll during the season for the first time since 1999. If third baseman Brandon Larson (strained quadriceps) can't get healthy, the club's preference might be a replacement who can make an everyday impact rather than a starting pitcher. Someone such as the Royals' Joe Randa could fit Cincinnati's budget; a team that acquires Randa would owe him the balance of his $3.25 million salary plus a $500,000 buyout.

But it's baseball; anything can happen. Miley, described by one scout as a "poor man's Mike Scioscia," relates well to veterans and youngsters, and he has instilled the same type of professionalism that Ned Yost did with the Brewers. O'Brien, conservative and methodical, will never panic; he's the anti-Jim Bowden. What if Griffey and Co. stay healthy, the Cubs and Astros get sidetracked by injuries and the Cardinals remain an enigma?

My best guess is that the Reds will be the Royals of 2004 and fade after the All-Star break. But again, what do I know? I'm the guy who picked them 30th out of 30. And entering the week, they shared the best record in the National League.

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* So Nomar Garciaparra's agent says the shortstop wants to remain in Boston. Really, would he say his client is miserable and can't wait to get out? Garciaparra's prolonged recovery from an Achilles, tendon injury might make the Red Sox drive a harder bargain. I'll believe that Garciaparra wants to stay in Boston when he signs a contract.