Lucky number? 1: thanks to its draft lottery win, the Magic owns the No. 1 pick. The problem is figuring out what to do with it

Sporting News, The, June 7, 2004 by Sean Deveney

Pat Williams, the Magic's senior vice president, was not supposed to be here in the first place, sitting at a podium in Secaucus, N.J., with representatives from the league's other dregs. Things were looking good in Orlando when the season began. The Magic was coming off a 42-40 season, a near-upset in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs and the offseason signing of veteran power forward Juwan Howard. The team started off with a rousing, season-opening overtime win over the Knicks. But thanks to lethargy, dissent and utter defensive malfunction, 1-0 became 1-19, and the Magic's fate was sealed: The team had the most pingpong balls in the NBA's draft lottery, helping it win the first overall pick in the June draft.

"We suffered for every one of those balls," Williams says. "I'm just glad they did their job."

The issue for the Magic now is deciding how to end the suffering, and the team is dealing with several wild cards. Chief among them is star shooting guard Tracy McGrady, who is eligible to opt out of his contract and test the free-agent market next summer. Frustrated with the team's backslide last season, McGrady has dropped hints he wants out of Orlando--though many around the Magic believe he is just trying to get management to boost the talent level, much as Kevin Garnett did in Minnesota (prompting the Timberwolves to acquire Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell). The Magic has the No. 1 pick, but McGrady wants immediate help.

That leads to the second problem: Connecticut power forward Emeka Okafor. He is considered the best prospect in the draft, slightly ahead of Atlanta high school star Dwight Howard. He is listed at 6-9, but some scouts believe he is closer to 6-8. Okafor is a great kid, an excellent shot blocker and somewhat limited offensively. That's not terrible news for a team that allowed a league-worst 101.1 points per game and could not stop anyone in the lane. Drafting Okafor, who can play some at center but is much better off at power forward, would create a glut at the power forward spot that likely would lead to trading Drew Gooden.

"He's not Bill Russell, obviously, but what he does reminds me of Russell," veteran NBA scouting director Marty Blake says of Okafor. "If you want a guy who can block shots and be a force on defense, he can do it. And he has proven himself in the NCAA."

The problem with Okafor, though, is that he does not have the can't-miss quality guys such as Yao Ming and LeBron James had in the past few years. He will be a very solid NBA player but probably not a star. One scout compares him to Buck Williams. There also is the health question--Okafor experienced back problems in college, and that scares NBA teams.

"The concern about his back problem is very real," says one Western Conference general manager. "I am awaiting the medical background info on him, as is everyone else."

This creates pitfalls for the Magic, but Williams says the team will be very careful in sizing up its options. There is Okafor. There is Howard. There are the dark horses--Orlando has a glaring hole at point guard (despite plans to give hobbled Grant Hill another crack at the position), so don't rule out high school point guard Shaun Livingston as the first overall pick. There's also the possibility of a trade, which would bring relief for McGrady next season and possibly help persuade him to stay in Orlando. But trading the top pick is very risky. Consider this: During the past 25 years, 20 of the NBA's No. 1 overall picks have gone on to be All-Stars; James is one of the five who has not, but he certainly will. If you have the top pick, then, you have an 84 percent chance of drafting an All-Star.

"We control the draft," Williams says. "We can take anyone we want to take. That's a good position to be in. But this is crucial for us. This is one we really need to nail."

If the Magic does not nail it, there could be more suffering in store for Orlando and McGrady next season, and Williams could wind up back at his podium, watching the pingpong balls. If McGrady packs his bags next summer, that seat could be a permanent one for Williams.

Sean Deveney's projected lottery selections

(1) Orlando: Emeka Okafor, PF, Connecticut. He should provide a sorely needed shot-blocking presence, assuming he gets a clean bill of health.

(2) L.A. Clippers: Dwight Howard, PF, Southwest Christian H.S. (Atlanta). A big (6-10), athletic forward, Howard is probably not a fit with the Clips, so a trade is possible; he must show the competitive fire to improve.

(3) Chicago: Luol Deng, SF, Duke. A very athletic player with great basketball instincts, Deng has improved on defense and would fill a need for the Bulls.

(4) Charlotte: Josh Childress, SF, Stanford. He's skinny but moves very well and is a deadly outside shooter; he would be a solid, reliable rookie for the new franchise.

(5) Washington: Martynas Andriuskevicius, C, Lithuania. Some question whether he will stay in the draft, but he is huge (7-2) and might be similar to countryman Arvydas Sabonis.