Global warning: experience counts: feeling a little Tskit-tish about international players? Afraid of the Darko? Nah, not NBA teams

Sporting News, The, June 10, 2005 by Sean Deveney

The sum total for the NBA career of Darko Milicic, the No. 2 pick in 2003, stands at 413 minutes played, 115 points scored and 64 fouls committed. The numbers on Nikoloz Tskitishvili, pick No. 5 in the 2002 draft, are almost as slim: 3.0 points per game on 30.1 percent shooting.

Though there have been prizes for those who play the international draft market--Peja Stojakovic, Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili, Yao Ming--scant numbers put up by some of the most heralded recent international draftees have given pause to NBA teams entering this draft.

That has created the impression that the approach to foreign players has changed, that NBA teams have undergone a sort of Darko disillusion. But that's not quite the case. The odyssey of Milicic might alter the thinking of some teams, but the Pistons still believe Milicic will prove his worth and vindicate them. Even if Milicic is a career-long disappointment, the NBA is as interested as ever in drafting international players--with the understanding that patience is a must.

"It's just going to be a matter of what teams have the appetite to stay with those players," Pistons president Joe Dumars says. "Teams that can't afford to wait and be patient are not going to draft foreign guys, but teams like us and San Antonio are stable enough to draft foreign guys and wait."

That means unstable teams are more likely to get cold feet on young players such as Martynas Andriuskevicius, Peja Samardziski and Nemanja Aleksandrov. Those players created a big stir in recent years by dominating on the junior circuit, but they haven't gotten much playing time with their adult clubs. That was the case for both Milicic and Tskitishvili. NBA teams, then, are left to evaluate these players based on how they performed as 16-year-olds and in practices.

But as one Western Conference general manager points out, "You can't tell how a player has progressed by watching practice. You can't tell anything about his instincts and toughness."

That helps explain why, this year, the top international player could be Fran Vazquez, a tough, experienced power forward. Vazquez is 22 and has proved his worth in Spain's top league--arguably the best league outside of the NBA.

Tiago Splitter, a 20-year-old, also figures to be a lottery pick. He stars for Spain's Tau Ceramica, one of the teams that reached the Euroleague Final Four. "More and more," says Marc Cornstein, the agent for Vazquez and Milicic, "teams want to know what they're getting. They want a player who has done something at a high level internationally. Drafting on potential is a little scary if you can't afford to wait."

There will be players chosen on potential--Andriuskevicius, for example, just turned 19 and averages a scant 9.2 minutes for his Lithuanian team. But he should be a lottery pick because he is 7-3. Samardziski (7-1) and French center Johan Petro (7-0) are talented projects who will get drafted because of their height.

They might be better off developing in Europe for a year or two, which is what Stojakovic, Ginobili and Jazz forward Andrei Kirilenko did. The problem, though, is that leaves teams with a draft pick that pays no immediate dividends.

"If you take those guys," a Western Conference general manager says, "you are looking at two or three years before you can play them, and who knows what will happen? It only takes a few weeks into the season for everyone to start saying, 'Hey, why isn't this guy playing? Hey, this guy is a bust.'"

That makes drafting international players a tough scene. But it's still a scene that teams are willing to deal with.

Bogut the Buck?

Perhaps no team in the league needed a stroke of luck more than the Bucks. With a bum arena, rumors of a move and star guard Michael Redd's impending free-agent status, things have been glum in Milwaukee. But that changed at last week's draft lottery, when the pingpong balls smiled on the Bucks and brightened the franchise's future with the No. 1 pick. The Bucks, like numerous teams, need help in the middle.

1. Bucks

Needs: PF, C. A 7-footer with skills trumps everything. Pick: C Andrew Bogut. Possibility: PG Chris Paul.

2. Hawks

Needs: C, PG. They're building around wings Josh Childress and Josh Smith. Pick: Paul. Possibility: C Martynas Andriuskevicius.

3. Trail Blazers

Needs: SG. Landing the No. 3 spot changes the plan to trade the pick. Pick: SF Marvin Williams. Possibility: Andriuskevicius.

4. Hornets

Needs: SF, PF, PG. They'd like to find a running partner for J.R. Smith. Pick: SF Gerald Green. Possibility: PF Fran Vazquez.

5. Bobcats

Needs: SF, PG, SG. Emeka Okafor and Primoz Brezec are the bigs. Pick: PG Raymond Felton. Possibility: PG Deron Williams.

6. Jazz

Needs: PG, C. The Keith McLeod days are over. Pick: Deron Williams. Possibility: Andriuskevicius.

7. Raptors

Needs: C, PG. Drafting a center and signing a point guard last offseason didn't do the trick. Pick: Andriuskevicius. Possibility: C Channing Frye.

8. Knicks

Needs: C, PF, SF. They lack size and athleticism. Pick: PF/C Tiago Splitter. Possibility: Frye.