Statscape

Sporting News, The, June 16, 2003 by Steve Walters

Rocco Baldelli's first two months in the majors have been exceptional. Few rookies adjust to big-league pitching so swiftly, and Baldelli was hitting .331 entering the week. Even Willie Mays went 1-for-26 at the start of his major league career in 1951.

There's a learning curve at each level, and to gauge its steepness I looked at the stats of 16 current everyday players during their first six months in the majors. I chose one player per position from each league, based on how closely his 2002 OPS (on-bass plus slugging percentage) matched the 2002 average OPS at his respective position.

The collective career OPS of the 16 players, weighted according to career plate appearances, was .833. But even among these successful major leaguers, their first couple of months in the bigs were a struggle, with average performances more than 20 percent below their eventual career norms.

Clearly, it often takes half a season or more for a player to get up to speed. Leo Durocher knew that: When Mays, his confidence shaken, asked to be sent back to the minors, the Lip refused, saying, "You're my center fielder as long as I'm the manager of this team." Patience rarely has been so well rewarded.

           Average   Percent of
Month in   monthly   career
majors     OPS       OPS

First      .658      79%
Second     .654      78%
Third      .714      86%
Fourth     .765      92%
Fifth      .812      97%
Sixth      .809      97%

By Steve Walters, who teaches sports economics at Loyola College in Maryland. E-mail him at swalters@loyola.edu.