Stat scape

Pitch count might be the most controversial statistic in baseball. To most coaches and scouts, it's overrated. In their view, numbers never can be as good as a trained eye in judging whether a pitcher is losing effectiveness or is at risk of injuring himself. They argue that passing the 100-pitch mark in a game can be noteworthy for some pitchers (such as the Mets' Pedro Martinez) and irrelevant for others (such as the Nationals' Livan Hernandez).

Only a fool would completely ignore pitch counts, however. There's strong evidence that high counts lead to reduced effectiveness in subsequent starts and increase the risk of severe injury.

The best research in this area has been done by Keith Woolner and Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus. They found that hangover effects are moderate when pitch counts are between 100 and 120 but rise rapidly thereafter. For example, even high-endurance pitchers such as Hernandez give up over 3 percent more runs per inning in the three weeks after a 130-pitch outing and over 7 percent more in the same span after a 140-pitch outing. Hernandez threw 150 pitches last Friday and has gone over 120 in seven of his 13 starts this season.

To measure a pitcher's excess workload, Woolner and Jazayerli keep track of Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP). They use a simple formula: Cube the number of pitches over 100 thrown in an outing. According to their research, top-level starters with above-average career PAP totals have been three times more likely to suffer a major injury than those with below-average PAP totals.

Such findings explain why most managers rarely push their starters past 120 pitches these days. Based on 2003 and '04 data that is available on BaseballProspectus.com the most "abusive" active managers are:

Robinson, Alou and Baker again are in the top five this season; they're joined by the Yankees' Joe Torre and his protege, Orioles skipper Lee Mazzilli. Trainers and surgeons, stay tuned.

                                                           % of starts
                                    Pitches       PAP         over
Manager, team                      per start   per start   120 pitches

Frank Robinson, Nationals             93.9      3,150.8       10.5
Dusty Baker, Cubs                    101.4      3,012.4        9.9
Mike Hargrove, Mariners               98.1      1,963.0        6.1
  ('03 only, with Orioles)
Felipe Alou, Giants                   96.6      1,870.6        5.3
Bob Melvin, Diamondbacks             102.0      1,721.4        0.0
  (with Mariners in '03 and '04)

Average manager                       94.7      1,086.6        2.8

E-mail him at swalters@loyola.edu.

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