THE ART OF THE hunch

Sporting News, The, June 25, 2001 by Bob McCullough

For hitters, in `guess' right on pitches has little to do with luck and a lot to do with homework and discipline

It's the ultimate high-stakes game: hitter vs. pitcher. Wins, losses and millions of dollars rest on their exchange, with house odds dictating failure at least 70 percent of the time for the batter. For the best of the best, there are ways to improve the odds, however. Hidden clues are everywhere: a shortstop playing deep in the hole for a sinkerball pitcher, a center fielder cheating to the right for a pitch on the corner. A combination of speed on the bases and a weak-armed catcher may indicate a series of fastballs, or that same catcher may be inclined to call a pitch he himself has trouble hitting.

Some batters take a see-ball-hit-ball approach to their job, but many others try to outguess pitchers and anticipate what's coming. To some, that's like marking the cards, but a guess hitter knows that if he can't pick up the motion on a pitch as it leaves the pitcher's hand, it's often too late. Game over.

"To me," says Mariners manager Lou Piniella, "a great guess hitter is a student of the game who, No. 1, studies how a catcher is calling a ballgame and, No. 2, knows what type of pitches a pitcher is getting over that particular day. It really is an art."

Or a thinking man's game. Every team has a couple of Kreskins, decent hitters who seem to be on every pitch for a week or two when their personal Ouija boards line up with their biorhythms. To Piniella, though, true guess hitters are ones who look for a specific pitch, or "sit" on it, and know how to get what they're looking for: by refusing to swing until the pitcher, perhaps guessing wrong himself, comes in with the pitch the batter is expecting. That's payoff time.

After 14 years of managing, in both leagues, Piniella is like a catalog of the best guess hitters. "In Boston, I would like (Nomar) Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez," he says. "I think they both have a damn good idea. Our team, I would talk about Edgar (Martinez). He's a very intelligent hitter. In Cleveland, (Jim) Thome looks (for a particular pitch), and so does Frank Thomas at Chicago. I'm talking about the good ones. (Garret) Anderson over in Anaheim. Troy Glaus is another one.

"I'll tell you another one--over in Texas, our young shortstop, Alex Rodriguez. Alex has a pretty good idea going up there. (The Dodgers' Eric) Karros would be classified there, I think, and (Larry) Walker at Colorado certainly has to be. I think (Ken Griffey Jr.) looks, too. Just about every power hitter (does), but some of them are better than others.

"I'm going to tell you another guy that might be the best in the league," Piniella adds. "Jason Giambi. I think he adjusts really, really well and has a really good thinking process, and he'll take a base on ball."

For whatever sophistication guess hitting may require, it's also a touchy subject. Batters hate being called guess hitters, mostly because they think the term implies that they don't know what they're doing.

"Pitchers eat up guys who guess on every pitch," the Red Sox's Carl Everett says.

Almost all batters claim they never do it, but most then go on to describe a personal approach that requires some degree of "anticipation." Other popular euphemisms include "having an idea," "getting my pitch" and "thinking along with the pitcher."

Giambi takes a particularly analytical approach, using a technique he learned from ex-teammate Mark McGwire to break down each at-bat. The goal is to hit only strikes and to work your way into a hitter's count. To do it, the hitter must assess the type of pitches a pitcher favors, the part of the plate he likes to work, whether he throws up or down, the score and the count.

"I usually do zones, and most of the time I'll sit fastball," says Giambi, reflecting the compound factors he takes into account. "But if there's a guy I think will throw me a 2-1 changeup, I'll sit for that. Or maybe (with) a lefthander who throws sliders, I'll sit slider. I'll sit those pitches and kind of let everything go after that."

After watching Giambi hit .333 with 43 home runs and 137 walks last year, Mariners pitching coach Bryan Price knows how precise Giambi is in his approach and thinks he may be "sitting" as much as 60 percent of the time.

"I think he understands that he's the huge threat in the offense and that particular pitchers have their way of trying to get him out and don't stray terribly far from (what they've done in the past)," says Price.

Giambi, who was hitting .348 with 17 homers entering the week, asserts that half of all starting pitchers, especially young ones, work in predictable patterns.

"Veterans go with their best stuff, and they don't give in," he says. "When I face the Rocket, he's going to throw me a forkball on 3-1 or 2-1. And that's why he wins: because he's not going to let certain guys in the lineup beat him. Where maybe a younger kid might make a mistake and say, `Well, let's throw him a fastball here and if I make a mistake I'll get away with it,' that's when you've got to sit and study and know your game plan."