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Decoding the N.L. West: get a clue! Actually, get 14 of 'em to decipher 2006's most misunderstood divisionplus one more to get you started on 2007
Sporting News, The, June 30, 2006 by Bob Hille
Out here, way out here, the mountains are a backdrop, swimming pools sit beyond the right-center field fence and the ocean is just a traffic jam away. Out here, the 1-hole hitters are wheeling, the G.M.s are dealing and a manager is apt to talk as if it were the Old West, not the National League West.
And that old saw, the one about how "the champion finished below .500" last year? Well, that's accurate only if you include the 82-80 Padres' being swept in the '05 playoffs. And though this year's champion will be near .500 again, don't be fooled.
"Every team upgraded," Diamondbacks catcher Johnny Estrada says.
The West will beat up on itself, but it began the week with every team at least .500 and with a 96-86 record against the other N.L. divisions. "I said even before we started that I thought this was going to be the most balanced division in baseball," Padres manager Bruce Bochy says.
Out here, way out here in the N.L. West, things are wide-open. It's a division deeper than Steinbrenner's pockets and tighter than David Glass'. Improved and evenly matched? You bet. Easy to figure, with more than three months to go? Hardly.
We offer a few clues--14--to help you figure out how this whole thing will shake down and one to grow on heading into next year.
1 Diamondbacks sinkerballer Brandon Webb is the most important player in the division. He's Arizona's ace, its innings-eater and its skid-stopper. He led the N.L. with 16 losses in 2004, when "the defense wasn't good," he says. "I was just trying to pitch around contact instead of pitching toward contact, which is what I'm doing now." Result: a major league-best 3.81:1 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio. Webb can carry his team in an evenly matched division.
2 First-year general managers have made an instant impact. The Dodgers' Ned Colletti negotiated multimillion-dollar deals (Nomar Garciaparra, Rafael Furcal, et al.) and signed low-cost free agents (notably, pitchers Aaron Sele, Takashi Saito and Joe Beimel). Those merely complemented his best moves: picking the A's pocket by getting outfielder Andre Ethier for mercurial Milton Bradley and, more important, not blocking the way for youngsters such as Ethier, outfielder Matt Kemp, catcher Russell Martin and righthander Jonathon Broxton. And more kids with talent are on the way.
The Diamondbacks' Josh Byrnes inherited a team that needed to upgrade the outfield and improve the infield defense. So he signed outfielder Eric Byrnes and traded for second baseman Orlando Hudson, who with shortstop Craig Counsell has helped Arizona turn 82 double plays, the second-most in the majors. (Webb has noticed.)
3 Jake Peavy is the Padres' Webb, except Peavy has pitched in pain and with poor luck and on a home field about which one opposing player says, "I've played stickball in parking lots softer than that." Here's the kind of year it has been for Peavy, who at 4-8 already has more losses than he did all last season, when he won 13 games: In one start, he struck out 16 and lost; the next day, the Padres got two hits and won.
4 The Giants won't be healthy enough (translation: have enough juice at the plate) to contend to the end. Try this stat on for size, courtesy of the San Francisco Chronicle: Since San Fran signed Moises Alou before the 2005 season, he and Barry Bonds have been in the lineup together 29 times in 230 games. The Giants are 13-8 with both Bonds and Alou in the lineup this season.
5 Speaking of Bonds, Arizona was winless in its first six games after the reds outed reliever Jason Grimsley. The key? In the six losses, the Diamondbacks were outscored, 14-1, in first innings.
6 Speaking of injuries---quick, read this stat before one of them gets hurt: Injury-prone J.D. Drew and Garciaparra have played in 58 and 49 of the Dodgers' 68 games. One or the other leads the team in batting, RBIs, homers and on-base percentage, and they're two big reasons the team leads the league in runs and batting average.
7 The injury that will haunt the Dodgers most is the one to closer Eric Gagne's elbow. His velocity was down from 99 mph to 93 mph, and an anti-inflammatory regimen was uneffective. He's back on the D.L. and his future availability can't be predicted, so the bullpen is in upheaval. The main fill-in options are Danys Baez, who leads the league with six blown saves, and Saito, a rookie who is 4-for-4 in save chances.
8 The Dodgers and D-backs need pitching, and because they have depth in the minors, they will be involved when the A's Barry Zito and the Marlins' Dontrelle Willis, among others, hit the trade market in July. More important, LA. and Arizona have money to spend.
9 Point of reference, the N.L. West payrolls ...
Dodgers $99.1 million Giants $90.8 million Padres $68.9 million Diamondbacks $58.9 million Rockies $40.8 million
10 The Rockies' evolution toward pitching and speed and away from their Blake Street Bombers roots has made the team better on the road (18-18 entering the week) but has caused trouble at home. From 1995 to 2001, they were shut out at Coors Field nine times. In a recent nine-game homestand, they were shut out twice.