Summer safety tip: spend wisely

Sporting News, The, July 15, 2002 by Sean Deveney

I confess, it was not the first time that upon reading some tidbit I found shocking in the morning paper that I responded by spewing a mouthful of Cheerios across the breakfast table. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the '87 stock market crash and the cancellation of Joanie Loves Chachi all evoked pretty much the same reaction. Now, this: Wally Szczerbiak wants a maximum-dollar contract extension.

Szczerbiak is part of the NBA's 1999 draft class, a group that has just completed its third season. According to league rules, members of that draft class are eligible for contract extensions, which would start after next season, at a maximum of six years and around $93 million total. Szczerbiak has decided that six years and $93 million sounds like a fair wage. If you're chewing breakfast food at the moment, you may fire when ready.

Szczerbiak is an above-average NBA player. He is an excellent shooter, hitting 50.7 percent from the field last season, easily the best success rate by any of the league's starting shooting guards. He averaged a career-high 18.7 points and added 4.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He even slipped onto the All-Star team.

Nice stats, but not a basis for the maximum extension. Unfortunately, NBA teams have had difficulty figuring out exactly what qualifies as a basis for maximum extensions, and the fact Szczerbiak considers himself in that realm is good evidence of such trouble. A player with a maximum contract should be an elite player. But if that is the case, why have 25 players signed max deals since the league's new collective bargaining agreement took hold in 19997 And that is in addition to the nine players who are making more than the maximum, thanks to contracts signed before the current bargaining agreement.

Of course, there are not 34 elite players in the NBA, and a look at players who have signed maximum deals reflects that. Some max contracts are given out based on star status--like the one the Kings' Chris Webber got last summer--but most are awarded based on the potential shown during a player's first three years in the league. Dirk Nowitzki, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter and Paul Pierce got these extensions last offseason, and all four are on course to be worthy of maximum signings.

But other names on the maximum-contract list include Keith Van Horn, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Vin Baker, Penny Hardaway, Grant Hill and Dikembe Mutombo. Obviously, mistakes have been made.

This summer, there is plenty of potential for more mistakes. In Szczerbiak's 1999 draft class, there are six ripe candidates for maximum extensions (with apologies to Richard Hamilton, Jason Terry and, uh, Jumaine Jones): Szczerbiak, Steve Francis of the Rockets, Elton Brand of the Clippers, Baron Davis of the Hornets, Andre Miller of the Cavaliers and Shawn Marion of the Suns. Unless the league truly has gone mad, not all six will get them.

Only one, in fact, is a certainty: Francis. This is a mere formality, as the Rockets have committed to rebuilding around Francis, and he has committed to the team. Brand also should sign an extension with Los Angeles this summer, but when Clippers owner Donald Sterling is involved, nothing is a certainty.

Marion will get an offer from the Suns to stay in Phoenix, but it is not likely to be for the maximum. The team has made Marion its top offseason priority, and Marion, an underrated player who defends, hits midrange jumpers and is one of the hardest-working rebounders in the league, will seek the maximum. But Marion is best as a second or third option on most teams--not as a star who can carry a team.

The other situations are much more complicated, and they might be left to resolve themselves in other cities. Start with Szczerbiak. Though his numbers are good, and though he has been an All-Star, he simply does not fit well with the Timberwolves. He is the team's second option, and the squabbles he has had with star forward Kevin Garnett are well-known. Szczerbiak still is a swinging gate defensively and is a favorite whipping boy of Timberwolves coaches.

The Timberwolves have tried to trade Szczerbiak and probably still would like to, which makes the situation trickier. If Minnesota balks at giving him a big contract, that sends a bad message to other teams who might consider dealing for him. It is an admission the Timberwolves don't value Szczerbiak highly. But if they give him a big extension, he becomes almost impossible to send elsewhere.

For Miller, the attempts of the Cavaliers to send him elsewhere have been well-documented--a trade with the Clippers collapsed at the 11th hour.

Miller has been the lone bright spot for the Cavaliers in recent years, and he led the league with 10.9 assists per game last season. But Cleveland has been a bad team during Miller's three seasons, and the Cavaliers clearly believe they can be just as bad without committing $93 million to Miller. They'd prefer to start from scratch. But Cleveland, like Minnesota, is dealing from a position of weakness. Opposing front offices know the team is looking to get rid of Miller, which means the Cavs can be low-balled.