Projecting hits and misses in the '99 free-agent class

Sporting News, The, July 19, 1999 by Dennis Dillon

Becoming a free agent is one way to strike it rich in the NFL. More than 860 players have changed teams--and tax brackets--since liberalized migration began in 1993.

But for the teams, free agency has been much less a seventh heaven than a seven-year itch. And they just can't keep from scratching.

From the start, free agency has been a seller's market in which teams often overpay for talent because of the win-now, win-at-all-costs philosophy that permeates the league. For every Reggie White, Bill Romanowski or Ray Buchanan--free-agent pickups who helped their teams reach the Super Bowl--there are dozens of busts (remember Alvin Harper in Tampa Bay?).

Free agency has become almost as big a crapshoot as the draft. Sure, there is a history of NFL performance with every free agent, but there are many questions that can't be answered until later. How will he fit in with a new system? Will his contract create dissension among his new teammates? How much of a character risk is he? What about his production ... age ... durability ... leadership?

Those are the factors we have weighed in judging the best and worst free-agent signings of this offseason. Here are our conclusions.

The best

1. Dale Carter, CB, Broncos ($38 million/six years). The Chiefs would have loved to re-sign the four-time Pro Bowl selection, but they couldn't afford the $8 million signing bonus. So Carter jumped to AFC West archrival Denver, where he and Ray Crockett should form one of the best corner tandems in the league. Though banged up a little the last two years, Carter, 29, remains one of the NFL's premier cornerbacks. He's an athletic, in-your-face defender who thrives in press coverage and uses his size (6-1) to smother receivers. And if his man gets past him, he can recover because of his great catch-up speed. Carter sometimes lacks discipline and displays an ugly attitude, but Mike Shanahan will keep him on track.

2. Orlando Brown, OT, Browns ($27 million/six years) and Lomas Brown, OT, Browns ($10.75 million/three years). In building the expansion Browns, coach Chris Palmer borrowed from the successful blueprint in Jacksonville, where he was offensive coordinator in 1997 and '98. You get two tackles and make them the foundation of your offensive line. OK, so the two Browns aren't exactly Tony Boselli and Leon Searcy. But they'll give Cleveland quarterbacks Ty Detmer and Tim Couch a chance to survive and, maybe, even thrive.

Orlando Brown, 28, is one of the top five right tackles in the league despite his subpar '98 season. He's a huge (6-7, 350), aggressive mauler who run-blocks with a nasty attitude. His pass blocking is competent, but he sometimes has trouble with quick pass rushers.

Despite his age (36), Lomas Brown remains a quality left tackle. The seven-time Pro Bowl pick is durable, savvy and quick enough to pass block. He should have a couple of solid seasons left in him.

3. Carnell Lake, S, Jaguars ($18 million/four years). Jacksonville is a championship-caliber team with a young secondary that has struggled. Lake, 32, is the missing piece management has been looking for. He's a quiet leader who commands respect. Lake went to the Pro Bowl as both a strong safety and a cornerback when he was with the Steelers. Now, the Jaguars will ask him to play free safety, which will allow second-year strong safety Donovin Darius to move up closer to the line of scrimmage, where he is more effective. Lake may have lost a step after 10 seasons, but he's always around the ball.

4. Mark Stepnoski, C, Cowboys ($14 million/five years). During its run of Super Bowl championships in the first half of this decade, Dallas featured the best offensive line in the NFL. You could trace the beginning of the line's decline to when Stepnoski left in free agency after the 1994 season. Now he's back to upgrade what has been the weak link on the chain. A bit undersized at 6-2, 265, he's not known for knocking defensive tackles off the ball. But he's a quick technician who plays with good leverage and knows how to use his hands. He just needs to stay healthy.

5. Marvcus Patton, LB, Chiefs ($6 million/three years, with $1 million guaranteed each year). Production and durability are Patton's two main assets. He led the Redskins in tackles in three of his four seasons in Washington, including 198 in '98. And he hasn't missed a game in nine NFL seasons. A sideline-to-sideline tackler, Patton is quick enough to cover most backs and tight ends man-to-man.

Patton makes Kansas City's defense bigger in the middle. And he allows the Chiefs to move Donnie Edwards, who was a bit undersized in the middle, to weakside linebacker, where he can be more free to run and make plays.

... and the worst

1. Kerry Collins, QB, Giants ($16.9 million/four years). Collins brings a load of baggage to the Big Apple. A former teammate accused him of making racist remarks, he has faced charges of driving while impaired and he basically quit on the Panthers last season, when he told coach Dom Capers that his heart no longer was in being the starting quarterback.