Marlins caught in a Miami vise

Sporting News, The, July 21, 2003 by Ken Rosenthal

IDIOTIC.

That's the word one general manager uses to describe the Marlins' trade of two top position prospects and a promising lefthanded pitcher to Texas for reliever Ugueth Urbina, a potential free agent. The G.M. says no reliever is worth such a price, and compares the deal to the Red Sox's infamous trade of Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen.

As always with the Marlins, the question is, "What the heck is going on?" And as always, the answer is far from clear.

Another G.M. who discussed trades with the Marlins last week says he sensed urgency in Florida, even "a little bit of desperation." Each time the Marlins make a move--from signing Ivan Rodriguez to hiring manager Jack McKeon to acquiring Urbina--they reiterate their desire to be a contender. They're fulfilling that pledge.

But they can't make it last.

Not this season, when it's difficult to imagine them surpassing the Phillies, Diamondbacks and other clubs for the wild card. And not the winter, when six of their players will be free agents mid 15 others will be eligible for salary arbitration.

"They're in the most difficult predicament of any team in baseball," one executive says. "South Florida can't stand another dismantling. But the Marlins can't afford to keep their team together. They're a scary team when they're right. But they have no fans, no money. They're trying to do the right thing. But at some point the finances are not going to let them."

The Urbina trade developed in less than a day, and at first glance it indeed looks terribly shortsighted. The Marlins parted with Class AA first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2000 draft, plus Class AA outfielder will Smith and Class AA pitcher Ryan Snare. They also agreed to pay $550,000 of the remaining $2.3 million on Urbina's contract. All that for a pitcher they will use as a setup man for 2 1/2 months.

The trade, however, can't be judged adequately until the prospects develop--or until the Marlins decide Urbina's ultimate fate. If file Marlins fall out of contention, they easily could flip Urbina to a contender.

They probably wouldn't recoup the full value of the prospects, but perhaps they could acquire cash.

Of course, the Marlins wouldn't stop with Urbina. They also could trade All-Star second baseman Luis Castillo, a potential free agent, and first baseman Derrek Lee, who has been offered to the Orioles fur Jeff Conine.

And once they began their deconstruction, they would be foolish to keep their promise to retain third baseman Mike Lowell for the rest of the season. If they gutted the team, their chances of signing Lowell long-term would be zero.

In fact, their chances probably are zero anyway, but club president David Samson speaks as if it's morning in Miami. "Our attendance is up over 30 percent (actually 22 percent)," says Samson, the stepson of owner Jeffrey Loria. "We've more than tripled our corporate sponsors from last year, from 25 to 77. Season tickets are up. The team is playing well. There's a definite buzz around our offices."

The arrival of rookie phenom Dontrelle Willis has changed the franchise's identity, and a crowd of 30,634 attended the lefthander's most recent home start on July 2, a 2-1 loss to the Braves in 13 innings. The Marlins had another memorable day last Friday, when they learned Willis would be an All-Star and made the Urbina trade--plus, Todd Hollandsworth hit a pinch-hit home run in the ninth inning and triggered a 5-4 comeback victory over the Expos.

If only it were the start of something big.

More likely, it was the beginning of the end.

The Marlins' payroll will rise from approximately $50 million to a projected $80 million next season if the team keeps its roster intact. Samson says the club's revenues can't support such an increase, adding that Loria has lost $20 million in each of the past two years.

A new stadium is a must, but it's doubtful the Marlins could obtain public financing in an uncertain economy. Miami city manager Joe Arriola told the Miami Herald last week that the team is willing to contribute $100 million to a proposed downtown domed stadium, and that the city would be willing to assist in the project under those conditions. Samson neither confirmed nor denied the $100 million offer.

So, much like the MLB-owned Expos, the Marlins live a day-to-day existence, unsure of what the future will bring.

The team entered the All-Star break 33-24 under McKeon after going 16-22 under Jeff Torborg. It plays 14 of its first 16 games after the break at Pro Player Stadium. Yet, as one agent asks, "What's the end game?"

The Marlins keep acquiring and developing talent, only to purge and begin anew. Lowell, Lee and four other significant players will attain five-plus years of service time this season, enabling them to compare their careers not just to their peers in arbitration, but also to free agents. A series of offseason trades and releases is inevitable. And without a new ballpark, the elimination of the franchise is possible after 2006, when the labor agreement permits MLB to revisit folding franchises.