Lowest seed poses greatest threat to Rams

Sporting News, The, Jan 14, 2002 by Gary Horton

It appears that the road to Super Bowl 36 will run through St. Louis. Any concerns about an AFC opponent are three weeks off, so for now, let's focus on the NFC, where the Rams are the top seed.

Can anyone beat the Rams? Yes, but it won't be easy. Let's examine the rest of the NFC field, listed in order of the team's chances of stealing a game from the Rams in their backyard.

Tampa Bay: Interestingly, the team with the sixth seed has the best chance of beating the Rams.

The foremost reason the Bucs match up well against the Rams is that their defensive line--tackles Warren Sapp and Anthony McFarland and ends Simeon Rice and Marcus Jones--can generate a pass rush without the help of a blitz. When a team can consistently get in quarterback Kurt Warner's face while dropping seven into coverage, the Rams' offense can be stalled. We saw it in the Rams' win over the Giants this season, and we saw it in St. Louis' only two losses--to New Orleans and, yes, Tampa Bay.

Second, the Rams haven't had an answer for running back Warrick Dunn in two years. Dunn rushed for 145 yards and added 53 yards receiving when the teams played a year ago, and he produced 106 rushing-receiving yards in their Week 11 matchup.

Finally, the Bucs aren't intimidated. They have won their last two games against St. Louis and held the league's most prolific offense to just 17 points in late November. And they did it on the turf in St. Louis.

Philadelphia: It took overtime to decide the Week 1 meeting between these two eventual division winners. Although Philadelphia had home-field advantage in that game, the Eagles' defense held the Rams to 17 points in regulation.

The Eagles also boast a defense that can apply pressure on Warner, but they do it differently than the Bucs. While end Hugh Douglas and tackle Corey Simon are excellent pass rushers, coordinator Jim Johnson loves to blitz. No defense blitzes as much as the Eagles, and it paid off with 45 sacks this season.

Johnson can afford to blitz the Rams because he has talent and depth at corner-back with Bobby Taylor, Troy Vincent and Al Harris. When the Rams go to their three-receiver sets with Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt and and either Az-Zahir Hakim or Ricky Proehl, Johnson simply can sub in Harris for outside linebacker Carlos Emmons.

If Taylor, Vincent and Harris hold the Rams' four wide receivers to just 185 yards receiving, as they did in Week 1, Philadelphia has an excellent chance of pulling off the upset.

San Francisco: The 49ers already have lost to the Rams twice this season. It's hard to beat a good team three times in the same season, and so San Francisco gets some consideration on that note alone.

In addition, the balance of a sound running game with Garrison Hearst and an explosive passing game with Terrell Owens makes San Francisco's offense, which is ranked second in the NFC in scoring behind the Rams, capable of staying competitive in a shootout.

And finally, right end Andre Carter proved with his two-sack performance in Week 13 that he can apply pressure on Warner without help. If Carter could maintain similar pressure, Ahmed Plummer and Jason Webster, a talented pair of young cornerbacks, would have a shot at staying with the Rams' receivers.

Green Bay: While the Packers' pass rush and balanced offensive attack might make them seem like a candidate to knock off St. Louis, they simply don't match up well against the Rams. Quarterback Brett Favre is most effective when the Packers establish a running game early, but the Rams' run defense has the ability to shut down Ahman Green. Once this offense becomes one-dimensional, the Packers' lack of bigplay receivers becomes obvious. And in Grant Wistrom and Leonard Little, the Rams have the speed coming off the edge to force Favre into costly mistakes.

Defensively, the Packers' linebackers don't have the speed to cover running back Marshall Faulk out of the backfield, especially in a game played on turf.

Chicago: The Bears perhaps are the only team with the personnel and scheme to neutralize Faulk. Speedy Brian Urlacher can chase down the run as well as cover the pass. He matches up better than any linebacker against Faulk the receiver, and Chicago's two-gap scheme up front should help contain Faulk as a runner. Unfortunately for the Bears, stopping Faulk isn't everything.

Bruce and Holt would cause cornerbacks R.W. McQuarters and Walt Harris trouble, but it's the combination of Proehl and Hakim that would make the difference in this matchup because the Bears lack depth at cornerback. If the Bears' line was unable to generate much of a pass rush, Warner would have all day to find his third or fourth options in the passing game. That alone would be enough for the Rams to outscore a team that averaged only 21.1 points per game this season.

The War Room, a team of football scouts headed by Gary Horton, analyzes NFL and college players, coaches and teams exclusively for THE SPORTING NEWS.