Fantasy source

Sporting News, The, Jan 14, 2005 by George Winkler

PLAY ACTION

Twelve NFL teams are preparing for the playoffs, but for the rest of us, it's time to think about next season. For those in fantasy football keeper leagues, this means whittling down a roster to the essential players.

In keeper leagues, owners carry players from one season to the next. There is a variety of rules for picking keepers--from allowing just one player to be kept to permitting multiple players with each assigned a dollar value against a cap. No matter the format, some of the same strategies apply.

Prime-time players. Talent and youth are an awesome combination, but don't overload on this year's rookies. A star player who has proved his worth over a slightly longer period of time is a safer choice. Remember, opposing NFL teams now have had a full season to build knowledge on first-year players and will spend the offseason looking for ways to stop them. Only the very best young players will be able to overcome the added attention.

It was a very good year. Superior performance can be fleeting. If a player's 2004 numbers don't jibe with his career stats, it might be an indication circumstances besides the player's talent were at work. For example, the Panthers' Muhsin Muhammad dramatically increased his touchdown receptions after Steve Smith was hurt early in the season.

Older is not wiser. Think owners of Marshall Faulk or Stephen Davis would like a mulligan? It's tough to part with players who have brought so much joy over the years, but once they get old, they're more likely to break down because of injuries. Trying to squeeze one more productive year out of an aging vet might cost you several good seasons from a rising star.

Contractual matters. Being in the right place at the right time is important, so it pays to keep track of your players' contract situations. Just ask owners of Marvin Harrison, who know their star will be working with Peyton Manning for the foreseeable future, thanks to a new multiyear deal.

M@IL BONDING

ROB HURT ANSWERS YOUR QUESTIONS

Will Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster or Nick Goings have the starting job in Carolina next year?

Phil Williams, Springfield, Mo.

Phil: Foster is the choice as long as he's fully recovered from his collarbone injury. Goings has played well, but he doesn't have Foster's raw talent or breakaway ability. I think Davis, 30, is finished, or close to it. He will face a steep uphill battle simply to return to the field after having microfracture knee surgery.

To submit a question to our fantasy experts, click on Daily Mail at fantasygmes.sportingnews.com/football. TSN Games TIP OF THE WEEK

The Eagles are the only NFC playoff team allowing fewer than 20 points per game. The Colts are the only AFC playoff team allowing more than 20 per game, and Indianapolis still ranks ahead of the Nos. 3-6 seeds in the NFC (Packers, Seahawks, Rams and Vikings). Playoff Fantasy Football owners should do what NFL offenses have done all season: Target the NFC's weak defenses. Pick Packers quarterback Brett Favre or Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander, who are both at home the opening week, and watch them pile up points as their opponents rack up missed tackles.--Rob Hurtt

To compete for $5,000 in prizes in our free Playoff Fantasy Football game, go to fantasygames.sportingnews.com.

KEEPER CORNER

The 2005 fantasy potential of 2004's young breakout players:

RB Kevin Jones, Lions. Limited early by an ankle injury, Jones made it to 1,000 rushing yards with a second half surge. '05 spin: His best is still to come in a young offense.

RB Julius Jones, Cowboys. Keeping him off I.R. allowed Dallas a glimpse of his future. '05 spin: Will rack up big numbers in his first full season.

WR Michael Clayton, Buccaneers. Plays like a veteran. '05 spin: Will be the Bucs' only sure thing.

WR Lee Evans, Bills. More explosive than Eric Moulds. '05 spin: Will benefit from playing in the Bills' improving offense.

RB Larry Johnson, Chiefs. Filling in for Priest Holmes, he has produced Holmes-like numbers. '05 spin: Unless Holmes retires, it will be risky to keep Johnson.--Vinnie Iyer

GRIDIRON GURUS

Chris Bahr, Rob Hurtt and George Winkler give their picks for the
2004-05 season.

                    Bahr               Hurtt               Winkler

    MVP        Peyton Manning   LaDainian Tomlinson,   Peyton Manning,
                  QB Colts          RB Chargers            QB Colts
 Rookie of     Lee Evans, WR       Lee Evans, WR       Kevin Jones, RB
  the year         Bills               Bills                Lions

  Breakout     Javon Walker,      Chrid Brown, RB       Antonio Gates,
   player        WR Packers                              TE Chargers
  Biggest      Kevan Barlow,    Matt Hasselbeck, QB     Kevan Barlow,
disappoint-       RB 49ers            Seahawks             RB 49ers
    ment
Will rebound   Thomas Jones,     Clinton Portis, RB     Anquan Boldin,
   in '05         RB Bears            Redskins           WR Cardinals
   Don't       Drew Bennett,      Nick Goings, RB      Reuben Droughns,
believe the      WR Titans            Panthers            RB Broncos
    hype