It ain't broke, but M's should try to fix it

Sporting News, The, July 23, 2001 by Ken Rosenthal

The Mariners' top three starting pitchers are not as dominant as the Yankees'. Not as dominant as the Red Sox's if Pedro Martinez is healthy. Not as dominant as the Athletics' and maybe not as dominant as the Twins'.

Freddy Garcia, Aaron Sele and Jamie Moyer were a combined 29-6 at the All-Star break, but Mariners general manager Pat Gillick makes no secret of his desire to fortify the team's postseason rotation by adding a front-line starter.

The Mariners have defied conventional wisdom all season, winning at a relentless pace despite the departures of Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez in a span of nearly 29 months. The postseason, however, isn't the same beast.

Maybe Garcia will assume the same aura as Boston's Martinez. Maybe the Mariners' bullpen can mask any weakness in their rotation. Maybe the team is good enough offensively and defensively to withstand any test.

But in a five- or seven-game series, I'd be reluctant to pick the Mariners over the Yankees, assuming that Garcia, Sele and Moyer would be matched against Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina--or even Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez, who is expected to return sometime in August from toe surgery.

"If you based it on that, why even play?" asks Mark McLemore, who has been eliminated by the Yankees in four of the last five postseasons as a member of the Rangers and Mariners.

"The Yankees didn't have the best record last year, did they? But they won the World Series. They fully understand, more than anybody, that it's how you're playing at that particular time"

And the Mariners have yet to play poorly.

It would be foolish to dismiss the postseason chances of a club that was 65-25 after 90 games. But it would be equally foolish to ignore the importance of starting pitching when a team must win three consecutive playoff series to become world champions.

A Mariners-Yankees matchup would concern even Gillick.

"We would have to play our `A' game," the G.M. says. "Anytime you match up with the Yankees in a short series against Clemens, Pettitte and Mussina they could maybe play an `A-minus' game. We'd have to play our best."

Is Gillick trying to portray a team that might win 120 games as an underdog? No, he's simply mindful of recent history. The Yankees won the past three World Series in large part because their starting pitchers went a combined 26-7 in the postseason with a 2.92 ERA.

The Mariners' starters aren't slouches. Garcia owns the most career wins among active pitchers under the age of 25. Sele is one of five pitchers to win 17 games in each of the past three seasons. Moyer is third in winning percentage behind Martinez and Greg Maddux since the start of the 1996 season.

Paul Abbott is the fourth starter, and the Mariners are 11-3 when he pitches. But of the four, only Garcia possesses overpowering stuff. And only Garcia has achieved a postseason breakthrough, twice beating the Yankees in last year's playoffs.

The trade market is thin, offering no certain upgrade. Lefthander Al Leiter would be a perfect fit for the Mariners--Gillick acquired him for the Blue Jays in 1989. But there are no indications that the Mets will make Leiter available.

Gillick is more likely to acquire a righthanded hitter before the July 31 non-waiver deadline. The Mariners lead the A.L. in runs scored, but they're a relatively mortal 17-11 in games started by left-handers.

"If you can't go one direction, you're going to have to try and go in the other," says Gillick, who has explored deals for Jose Cruz Jr., Jermaine Dye and Chuck Knoblauch, among others. "I would think that might be the way to go."

Whatever they do, the Mariners will remain a joy to watch, a whole greater than the sum of their parts, a reminder of all that baseball can be. They lead the A.L. in fielding percentage. They take every possible base. They excel at situational hitting.

"It's not all about your top three starting pitchers" says Giants manager Dusty Baker, whose team lost two of three to the Mariners at Safeco Field in the first series after the All-Star Game.

"It's about speed, defense, how they play together, how many interchangeable parts they have, how many dutch hits they've gotten, how many people they've gotten those dutch hits from.

"I watch them on TV. They'll beat you 3-2 or they'll beat you 9-8. You talk about their starting pitching. I haven't seen many bullpens better than theirs."

That's one advantage the Mariners will take into October. Garcia could be another. His fastball, curveball and changeup are all quality pitches. Through last Saturday, he had won 18 of his past 20 decisions, including the postseason.

Mariners officials say Garcia took a major step forward when he beat the Yankees in Game 1 of last year's American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium. He has made additional progress this season, sustaining his intensity into the late innings. It's no accident that the word "Chief" is on the nameplate over his locker.

Garcia, though, remains somewhat unproven. Sele and Moyer, meanwhile, have allowed a combined total of 33 homers in 220 2/3 innings before the All-Star break. Neither appeared among the league leaders in baserunners-per-nine-innings or strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Yankees and A's had more than one starting pitcher ranked in the top 10 of each category.