DISTRESS signals

Sporting News, The, August 16, 1999 by Ron Kroichick

The AFC West quarterback picture has been ravaged by retirement, injury and poor decisions. The once-dominant division is awash in experiments at the position--not exactly the formula for a title run.

Not long ago, the AFC West housed its share of established quarterbacks. They were not all Elwayesque, but the division fielded a mix of proven winners and strong right arms. Joe Montana briefly stopped in Kansas City. Jeff Hostetler, Super Bowl ring in tow, joined the Raiders. Start Humphries seldom stirred visions of Johnny Unitas, but he took the Chargers to the Super Bowl. Then came Warren Moon, who pumped fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators.

As Elway departed this offseason, so did any sense of stability at quarterback in this once-dominant division. Consider the starters heading into the 1999 season--Denver's Bubby Brister, Kansas City's Elvis Grbac, Oakland's Rich Gannon, Seattle's Jon Kitna and San Diego's Jim Harbaugh.

All but Grbac are new to their teams or No. 1 status, or both. There is no Super Bowl pedigree in sight, no reason to think one of these quarterbacks can lead his team to the championship. That premise meets little resistance from Seahawks coach/G.M. Mike Holmgren. "I think it's an open question with all the quarterbacks in the division," he says. "Denver has such a good team and such a good running back, they'll always have a chance. But there are questions for the rest of us, sure."

The questions come in various forms. Can Brister ease the burden on Terrell Davis? Can Grbac stay healthy? Can Gannon seize his chance as the no-doubt-about-it starter? Can Kitna blossom quickly? Can Harbaugh make a difference? This is hardly a formula for success, skepticism dogging each quarterback. All five teams must rely on their defenses and running games to guide them to the playoffs.

"To me, it's a mess out there," one NFC executive says. "Nobody knows what the hell they have. I don't see any of those guys taking their team to the Super Bowl. They're five guys who haven't won. There's a lot of guesswork involved."

The roots of the guesswork are age, injury and poor decisions. Montana, Hostetler and Elway just got old and either retired or moved on. Plus, few AFC West teams were in position to draft replacements.

Then, when the Chargers went that route (after injuries ended Humphries' career), they tapped Ryan Leaf, who promptly imploded in his rookie season. The Raiders also made a decision they came to regret when they signed Jeff George, who was unceremoniously dumped two years later.

So now the West is awash in experiments. Now the power in the AFC tilts to the East (Dolphins and Jets) or Central (Jaguars). This is no coincidence, given the migration of quarterbacks to the East--where Dan Marino and Drew Bledsoe suddenly have company, with retro successes Doug Flutie and Vinny Testaverde and the promising Peyton Manning.

The play of these quarterbacks explains the presence of four AFC East teams in last year's playoffs. Those teams enter 1999 brimming with confidence. "I just think our division is loaded with quarterbacks," Bills G.M. John Butler says. "We got 'em all right now."

One way for the West to regain prominence is through the wisdom of its head coaches. Holmgren and Denver coach Mike Shanahan are former quarterbacks, with offensive coaching backgrounds. The same is true of Oakland's Jon Gruden and San Diego's Mike Riley. Kansas City's Gunther Cunningham cut his coaching teeth primarily on defense.

"The coaches will make a significant difference," says Tom Donahoe, Pittsburgh's director of football operations. "The quarterbacks out there have talent--it's just a question of finding out what they can do best and taking advantage of it."

Brister inherits the division's most talented team and the most daunting task--replacing Elway. It did not take long for Brister to recognize the magnitude of his assignment. The morning after Elway retired, Brister and his wife, Bonnie, sat down for brunch at a local hotel. The line of autograph seekers soon formed at their table, eager for the signature of the Broncos' starting quarterback.

Brister, who turns 37 Sunday, is not naive. He has started 75 NFL games, including four last season. He is 37-38 as a starter, wholly uninspiring, but he won all four starts last year, gaining the faith of his teammates.

"You always want a premier quarterback--everybody is looking for that guy," Shanahan says. "But as John will be the flint to tell you, the quarterback doesn't win the Super Bowl. John didn't win a Super Bowl until he had the supporting cast."

That cast begins with Davis. Defenses will stack the line to slow Davis and challenge Brister; that means Shanahan must find innovative ways to use Brister's mobility (rollouts, bootlegs, etc.).

Shanahan also needs to curb Brister's past tendency to make critical mistakes. Donahoe recalls Brister's days as Pittsburgh's starter, when he was distinctly erratic. Brister seems to have settled down in Denver--and Donahoe says he will surprise people with his arm strength.