National title chase is a numbers game

Sporting News, The, Sept 3, 2001 by Tom Dienhart

Sports fans love numbers. They can't get enough of them. They like to compare them, analyze them and debate them. In this twisted romance, every last digit drips with meaning and significance.

Like baseball's 755 (Hank Aaron's home run record), the NBA's 100 (Wilt Chamberlain's single-game points record) and the NFL's 48 (Dan Marino's record for touchdown passes in a season), college football has its notable numbers.

Expect one of them to fall this fall: Joe Paterno needs only two wins to pass Bear Bryant's 323 and become the winningest college football coach in Division I-A.

Other numbers bear watching this season, among them Florida State's 52-game home unbeaten streak. No doubt that will be tested by Georgia Tech and Miami.

And speaking of coaching victories and the Seminoles, Bobby Bowden enters the season with 315. It's not likely he'll overtake Paterno, but passing Bryant certainly' is within reason given FSU's string of 14 consecutive seasons with at least 10 wins.

There are more numbers to watch. How they expand or contract will go a long way toward shaping the national title picture.

* Nebraska's sacks. The Cornhuskers' 25 last season were the lowest total since the school began tracking the figure in 1981. As a result, the Blackshirts weren't their usual dominant selves. Nebraska ranked 50th in the nation (seventh in the Big 12) against the pass by allowing 208.3 yards per game.

Nebraska has decent cover men in Keyuo Craver, Erwin Swiney and DeJuan Groce, but they can't cover forever. Ends Chris Kelsay, Benard Thomas and Demoine Adams are on the spot.

"During the course of the spring, we saw progress," says defensive coordinator Craig Bohl. "We were really pleased with how we finished up the scrimmage. We really need to see an explosive, aggressive defense and guys who are flying around the football. You cannot characterize that by quoting a number of sacks. We need to see great takeaways. That's the mark that we need."

* Florida State's scoring average. The Seminoles ranked third in the land last season with a 42.2 average. But points might be harder to come by this season, especially early while the offense breaks in new contributors. The passing attack needs time to develop; redshirt freshman Chris Rix is working with a receiving corps that lost Anquan Boldin and Robert Morgan for the season with knee injuries.

That means setting up the pass with the run never has been so vital for Florida State. A strong ground game also would allow the Seminoles to control the clock, which would help protect a defense that still is developing.

"Anquan was probably our biggest playmaker," Bowden says. "That's one reason we moved him back to wide receiver was because he could make some plays. Now we have to wait and see if somebody else will be able to step up in that role.

"We've still got receivers other than Atrews (Bell), Talman (Gardner) and (Javon) Walker. Those guys have played, and it's not like they have never been out there before. Then you have some young ones who are going to have to contribute."

* Florida's rushing yards per game. One of college football's little secrets last season was the Gators' struggles to run. How bad was it? Florida ranked 10th in the SEC with a 110.5-yard average. The Gators posted a lower total just four times (1970, `71, `79 and `92) since 1969. Three starters from last year's line, as well as top runners Earnest Graham and Robert Gillespie, are back, so there's promise.

* Lee Suggs' rushing touchdowns. His 27 last season led the nation, as did his ll.5-point scoring average. If Virginia Tech is to win 11 games for a third consecutive season, Suggs must carry the load like last season, when he rushed for 1,207 yards. Tech ranked fifth in the country in rushing last season--it had the 100th-rated passing attack--and again is equipped to punish opponents on the ground. That's vital with the uncertainty at quarterback.

* Texas' field goals. Behind the leg of Kris Stockton, the Longhorns led the Big 12 in field goals last season with 22. Stockton hit a league-best 84.6 percent (22-of-26) and left as the Longhorns' all-time most accurate kicker, hitting 75.3 percent (58-of-77). Into that ample void steps redshirt freshman Matt McFadden. If the Longhorns are to win the national title, they likely will need a big field goal to win a game at some point.

* Oklahoma's third-down conversion rate. Departed quarterback Josh Heupel and his wondrous intangibles were at their best on third down. Heupel converted 71 of 153 third downs (46.4 percent) to keep drive after drive alive last season. Nate Hybl is the new man under center. Everyone agrees Hybl has better skills than Heupel, but will he have the ability to rescue the defending national champs when they need it most?

* Miami's road record. The Hurricanes look like national title contenders, but a rugged road schedule could be their undoing. Last season, Miami's lone road defeat was at Washington, which finished 11-1. This season, the 'Canes have tough stops at Penn State, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Boston College and Virginia Tech.