AFC east

POMPEI'S PICKS

1. Patriots *

The reigning champs are solid in every aspect. No team will be better coached. The only threats are injuries or a breakdown in chemistry.

2. Jets *

Look for significant improvement. If Pennington plays like he did two years ago, the Jets will have a very good offense.

3. Dolphins

The offense has some real issues, but the defense could be decent (worst-case scenario) or dominant (best-case scenario).

4. Bills

They have some talent, but with a young quarterback and a young running back waiting to play, this could turn into a rebuilding year.

* projected playoff team

Buffalo Bills

+PULPS FACTORS: Few teams have as many established names on defense. OLB Takeo Spikes, CB Troy Vincent and T Sam Adams have been Pro Bowl selections, and MLB London Fletcher, CB Nate Clements, T Pat Williams and RE Aaron Schobel rank among the best at their positions. With all that talent, this unit should be as stout as last year's, which ranked second in the NFL in fewest yards allowed. The Bills have the makings of a solid rushing attack with RB Travis Henry and a healthy RB Willis McGahee. Henry is a rugged back with great vision, balance and toughness. McGahee is making steady progress from the knee injury that sidelined him throughout his rookie year. If the two can co-exist, the Bills will be able to control the clock and wear down defenses. WR Eric Moulds looks ready to return to elite status now that a groin injury he suffered last season has healed. Rookie WR Lee Evans, the No. 13 overall draft pick, has the speed to take double-teams off Moulds. WRs Josh Reed, Bobby Shaw and Sam Aiken are solid possession receivers.

-MINUS SIDE: Keeping QB Drew Bledsoe healthy is vital because the Bills have lost their top two backups to injuries. J.R Losman, who is being groomed as Bledsoe's eventual successor, is out at least eight weeks with a broken fibula, and Travis Brown suffered a knee injury in the third preseason game. The Bills were expected to sign a veteran quarterback because their only healthy reserve, Greg Zolman, has never suited up for a regular-season game. The offensive fine remains unsettled. Injuries and personal issues have prevented the same five blockers from working together much in camp. Unless something changes quickly, the unit won't be cohesive at the start of the season. The defense won't be truly dominant unless it forces turnovers. The Bills were last in the NFL in takeaways each of the past two seasons. Improvement in that area would help the offense, which didn't operate with a short field very often last season. The team lost SS lawyer Milloy indefinitely with a broken forearm. He will be replaced by Coy Wire, a physical player who needs to improve his range.

WILSON'S BOTTOM LINE: If new coach Mike Mularkey's vision of a ball-control offense comes to fruition and the defense remains strong, the Bills could be one of the NFL's surprise teams and make a run at a playoff berth. But given the unstable nature of the offensive line, a .500 season appears to be a more realistic goal.--Allen Wilson

THE KEY

Williams has the size (6-6, 370) and strength to be overpowering in the running game, but he struggles against quick pass rushers. Williams didn't come to camp in top condition and has been slow to round into shape. He is being paid like a star; he needs to play like one.

STARTING LINEUP

OFFENSE

WR  Eric Moulds       5
LT  Jonas Jennings    3
LG  Lawrence Smith    2
C   Trey Teague       3
RG  Chris Villarrial  3
RT# Mike Williams#    3#
TE  Mark Campbell     2
WR  Lee Evans         2
QB  Drew Bledsoe      3
FB  Daimon Shelton    2
RB  Travis Henry      4

DEFENSE

LE  Chris Kelsay      2
DT  Sam Adams         3
DT  Pat Williams      3
RE  Aaron Schobel     3
OLB Jeff Posey        3
MLB London Fletcher   3
OLB Takeo Spikes      4
CB  Troy Vincent      3
CB  Nate Clements     3
SS  Coy Wire          2
FS  Izell Reese       2

SPECIAL TEAMS

K   Rian Lindell      2
P   Brian Moorman     4
KR  Josh Reed         3
PR  Nate Clements     3

Note: The Key is indicated with #.

Miami Dolphins

+PLUS FACTORS: The defense ranked 10th in the league last season and should be one of the best again. It has game-changing players such as RE Jason Taylor, MLB Zach Thomas and CB Patrick Surtain. The depth is good, too, thanks to veterans such as CB Reggie Howard and a pair of rookies, CB Will Poole and MLB Derrick Pope. The defense should be able to handle a few injuries and keep the team in most games. Though the offensive line struggled early in camp, it is young and talented. Once it learns to play together, it should mature into a strong unit. WR Chris Chambers is a budding star, a big-play threat who caught 11 touchdown passes last season. Look for Chambers to be the focal point of the offense; he could rack up 1,200 receiving yards and surpass his 2003 touchdown total.

-MINUS SIDE: The retirement of RB Ricky Williams and the season-ending knee injury to WR David Boston have cast a pall over the hopes for this season. Dave Wannstedt and his staff are uunder enormous pressure an likely won't get a break from owner Wayne Huizenga, despite the personnel hits. Even though Wannstedt received a contract extension through 2006, he was stripped of his personnel power. Plus, the fans have cooled on him. The pressure on Wannstedt is so great that he has looked haggard at times. The running game is borderline pathetic. RB Travis Minor hasn't found much room behind the inexperienced line, which features four new starters. And when Minor has gotten holes, he has been tentative. The team went into the final week of the exhibition season still debating what to do at quarterback. Incumbent Jay Fiedler is the safe option, considering there will be at least six new starters on offense. But A.J. Feeley has a good arm and a quick release. Plus, the team traded a second-round pick to get him.