AFC west

POMPEI'S PICKS

1. Broncos *

The running game will be fine without Portis, and the defense will be significantly improved with the addition of Bailey.

2. Chiefs *

They will score points in bunches, but will they also give them up in bunches? Cunningham will have a positive impact as defensive coordinator.

3. Raiders

They should rebound from last year's 4-12 record, but they probably aren't capable of getting back to their Super Bowl form of 2002.

4. Chargers

After Tomlinson, there's not much to get excited about. Brees could take advantage of Rivers' holdout and become a quality player.

* projected playoff team

Denver Broncos

+PLUS FACTORS: CB Champ Bailey, acquired for RB Clinton Portis in an offseason trade with the Redskins, is the real deal. His man-to-man coverage skills allow the defense to blitz more and play the run more aggressively. Offseason pickups RE Raylee Johnson (Chargers) and RT Luther Elliss (Lions) have improved the front four. The two bring strength and savvy to the unit. Elliss' presence should mean fewer double-teams for LE Trevor Pryce. Pryce is in the best shape of his career and has had his best camp ever. He is headed for a monster season. It appears the Broncos will produce another 1,000-yard rusher. Second-year RB Quentin Griffin has won the starting job and has proved that his quickness and cutback ability fit Denver's system. Griffin also is a good receiver and is surprisingly adept at picking up blitzers in pass protection.

-MINUS SIDE: The passing game looks shaky. QB Jake Plummer has not been sharp in the preseason, often throwing behind receivers and making bad decisions. Third-year WR Ashley Lelie has yet to blossom into a big-time playmaker. As be enters a make-or-break season, he could lose his starting job to rookie WR Darius Watts, who has been much more impressive in the preseason. The offense in general has been sloppy, with a lot of penalties, dropped passes and blown assignments. Coach Mike Shanahon says teams play the way they practice. That means the offense needs to get its act together before the Broncos' key season opener against the Chiefs. Rookie WLB D.J. Williams sometimes is too aggressive and puts himself out of position. SLBs Jashon Sykes and Terry Pierce are nursing knee injuries. Pierce, a converted middle linebacker, was making a push to be a starter before getting injured; losing practice time will make the transition more difficult.

SAUNDERS' BOTTOM LINE: For the first time in the Shanahan era, the defense will carry the team. If it can stay healthy, and if it can create more turnovers than it has the past two seasons, the unit will be one of the league's best. The offense is a question mark. It will miss retired TE Shannon Sharpe, especially in the red zone, but Watts could emerge as a dependable playmaker. The Broncos are not a Super Bowl team, but expect them to beat out the Chiefs for the AFC West title.--Patrick Saunders

THE KEY

Lepsis' move from the right side to the left side seems natural. He is athletic, quick on his feet and ultracompetitive. But he has been tentative pass blocking in the preseason. He's a terrific downfield run blocker, but it will take some time before he's comfortable against speed rushers.

STARTING LINEUP

OFFENSE

WR  Rod Smith           4
LT# Matt Lepsis#        3#
LG  Ben Hamilton        3
C   Tom Nalen           5
RG  Dan Neil            4
RT  George Foster       2
TE  Byron Chamberlain   3
WR  Ashley Lelie        2
QB  Jake Plummer        4
FB  Reuben Droughns     3
RB  Quentin Griffin     3

DEFENSE

LE  Trevor Pryce        5
DT  Luther Elliss       3
DT  Monsanto Pope       3
RE  Raylee Johnson      3
SLB Jashon Sykes        3
MLB Al Wilson           5
WLB D.J. Williams       3
CB  Lenny Walls         3
CB  Champ Bailey        5
SS  John Lynch          4
FS  Kenoy Kennedy       3

SPECIAL TEAMS

K   Jason Elam          5
P   Micah Knorr         3
KR  Reuben Droughns     3
PR  Triandos Luke       3

Note: The Key is indicated with #.

Kansas City Chiefs

+PLUS FACTORS: The offense gave every indication during camp that it will pick up where it left off last season, when it was the league's highest-scoring team. The club has replaced only one offensive starter, with John Welbourn taking over for departed RT John Tail. The addition of rookie TE/FB Kris Wilson gives the offense a new weapon. The return of former head coach Gunther Cunningham as coordinator has energized a defense beaten down by last season's collapse. The personnel appears better suited to Cunningham's attacking style than the read-and-react schemes of former coordinator Greg Robinson. The unit will allow fewer big plays. The Chiefs build their roster with an eye toward special teams as much as any team in the league. Dante Hall remains one of the game's most dangerous return specialists.

-MINUS SIDE: With the first two games against Denver and Carolina, the new defense had better be ready. The unit was disjointed at times during the preseason. Injuries at wide receiver could hinder the offense. Johnnie Morton (Achilles' strain) and Marc Boerigter (knee) won't be available for the opener--and perhaps well beyond. Hall will start, but he's better off as a change-of-pace player. Playing every down could hurt his effectiveness on offense and as a returner. The team now must turn to unproven wideouts to play key backup roles. Other than T/C Chris Bober no veteran has stepped up to claim a backup spot on the offensive line. The Chiefs haven't lost a line starter to injury for more than two years, so the unit is overdue to need one or more backups at some point. The backup situation at left tackle is of particular concern.