Bonds' numbers add up to another MVP

Ken Rosenthal

The real debate isn't over National League MVP, but over which of Barry Bonds' seasons should be considered his finest. There's 2001, when he hit his record 73 homers. There's 2002, when he hit .370 and won his first batting title. And now there's 2004, when he's preparing to shatter his single-season record for on-base percentage, hitting for nearly as high an average as Ichiro Suzuki and missing fewer pitches than ever.

Giants assistant general manager Ned Colletti declines to pick his favorite Bonds season, saying only, "We're talking about the four greatest offensive years ever." That includes 2003, when Bonds missed 31 games but won his sixth MVP. And Colletti is right--each of Bonds' past four seasons is a wonder in itself, making it difficult to choose one over another.

Bonds' legacy still might be tainted by his connection to the BALCO scandal and suspicions that he used performance-enhancing drugs. But barring fresh revelations that portray him in a negative light, he will be remembered for his astonishing hitting skill above all else.

As Bonds, 40, approaches 700 home runs, he shows few signs of slowing down. Oh, he no longer is much of a left fielder, and those who prefer more rounded MVPs are talking up the Dodgers' Adrian Beltre and the Cardinals' Scott Rolen, both elite defenders at third base. Bonds, however, creates so many more runs than any other player offensively, he remains the obvious choice even if other candidates prevent more runs defensively.

Look at the Giants, for heaven's sake. They began the week ranked second in the N.L. in runs per game, but without Bonds batting cleanup, they'd be the Mets of the West. Their leadoff men ranked seventh in the N.L. in OBP, their No. 2 hitters sixth and their No. 3 hitters 12th. Their No. 5 hitters, meanwhile, ranked next to last in on-base/slugging percentage (OPS), their No. 6 hitters 11th, their No. 7 hitters fourth.

The Giants aren't proficient at getting runners on in front of Bonds. They're also not proficient at advancing him once he's on base. Yet he's second in the league in runs. Bonds' .605 OBP, padded by walk totals that will eclipse his '02 record, gives the team an immense advantage in run production, helping an otherwise mediocre group remain in contention.

Now imagine if the Giants had someone to play Scottie Pippen to Bonds' Michael Jordan. Given Rolen's supporting cast in St. Louis or even Beltre's in Los Angeles, Bonds would be seeing a greater number of strikes and already might be approaching Hank Aaron's all-time record of 755 homers. Thus, it would behoove the Giants to obtain the biggest, baddest slugger they can find this offseason, creating a Rolen-Albert Pujols or Manny Ramirez-David Ortiz dynamic. Remember Bonds and Jeff Kent?

Even as a lone wolf, Bonds remains the most disruptive force in the game's history. Three times this season, according to STATS Inc., Bonds has scored the winning run after receiving an intentional walk in the eighth inning or later with the score tied and no one on base. Beltre can hit 50 homers, Rolen can drive in 140 runs, Pujols can put up his own stupid numbers. No matter; there's Planet Barry, and everyone else is in a satellite orbit.

Choosing a new MVP might be tempting for some voting baseball writers, but Bonds can't be dismissed as if he were a two-term president. He actually is hitting for more power than he did in his previous two seasons--his current home run rate and slugging percentage rank second in his career only to his '01 numbers. His 1.408 OPS is on pace to break his '02 mark of 1.381 for the highest in major league history.

Here's another doozy of a stat: Though Bonds was swinging at only 28.2 percent of the pitches he saw at the start of the week, by far the lowest in the majors, he was missing on only 11.8 percent of his swings, a lower percentage than in any of his three previous seasons. He had struck out only 27 times in 489 plate appearances, the lowest rate of his career.

The perception that Bonds never misses a pitch to hit isn't entirely accurate; other hitters make contact more often but don't achieve the same results. Perhaps Bonds' greatest gift is his ability to pull his hands close to his body and hit inside pitches fair. Eventually he will lose bat speed, but his swing is so short, his decline might not be as rapid as that of other sluggers.

As Marlins manager Jack McKeon told reporters last week, "You can't tell me the Babe was any better than this guy. You can't tell me this guy isn't the best player in the history of the game."

Coming soon: 700, 755 and much more.

(S) Follow the pennant race with the latest news, up-to-the-minute box scores and GameTrax at msn.foxsports.com, keyword: mlb.

SPEED READS

* Some advice for the Diamondbacks: Trade Randy Johnson, forget about re-signing Richie Sexson, and start over. The N.L. West is not a powerhouse division, but if Arizona tries to compete next season, it will only delay its rebuilding process. Better to start from scratch and follow the examples of the Indians, Twins and A's.

* Changing leagues sure didn't bother Carlos Beltran, a potential free agent. Beltran began the week with a .982 on-base-slugging percentage (OPS) since his trade to the Astros on June 24, hitting a home run every 10.6 at-bats. He had a .901 OPS with the Royals before the deal and hit a homer every 17.7 at-bats.

* The Orioles are their usual late-season mess, reviving questions about the job security of first-year manager Lee Mazzilli. The team's 4-32 collapse in 2002 and 14-32 finish in '03 cost former manager Mike Hargrove his job. Mazzilli lags in preparation, shows little feel for handling pitchers and fails to communicate with his coaches. In short, he's overmatched.

INSIDE DISH

By KEN ROSENTHAL

White Sox G.M. Ken Williams likely will consider all options this offseason, including trading LF Carlos Lee or 1B Paul Konerko. Lee, headed toward his second straight 30-homer, 100-RBI season, is relatively affordable at $8 million in 2005 with an $8.5 million option for '06. The White Sox might move him if they can get multiple parts in return, including a quality young pitcher. They then could reinvest Lee's salary in other players.... In addition to reviving offensively, Chipper Jones is playing surprisingly well in the field in his return to third base. It looks increasingly likely Jones will remain at third next season, giving top prospect 3B Andy Marte another year to develop. The Braves then would re-sign RF J.D. Drew or sign another outfielder and attempt to re-sign Eli Marrero to continue alternating him in left with Charles Thomas. Class AAA OF Ryan Langerhans is another possibility, with Class AA OF Jeff Francoeur not tar behind.... The Angels' aggressive baserunning makes them a dangerous opponent, but it also leads to premature outs. At the start of the week, the Indians were the only team in the majors that had made more outs on the bases, according to STATS Inc. The measure includes players caught stealing, picked off, thrown out on the bases and doubled off.... Red Sox RHP Bronson Arroyo began the week ranked 14th in the A.L. with a 4.07 ERA, ahead of Kelvim Escobar, C.C. Sabathia, Javier Vazquez, Barry Zito and Bartolo Colon, among others. He also was eighth in the league in strikeouts-to-walk ratio.... How tough is Albert Pujols? The Cardinals' slugging first baseman continues to play with plantar fasciitis in his left foot, hut one scout clocked him at 4 seconds flat to first base on a bunt single that preceded a game-tying home run by Jim Edmonds in Cincinnati. That's nearly as fast as Pujols runs from home to first when he's healthy.... A's 3B Eric Chavez, who had 27 home runs after 358 at-bats, might be leading the A.L. in homers if he hadn't missed six weeks with a broken hand. Chavez, a lefthanded hitter, has a curious split--.331 against lefthanded pitchers, .251 against righthanders. He began the season with a .221 career average against lefthanders.... One scout says Giants LHP Noah Lowry might struggle his second time through the league, saying the separation is too great between Lowry's 88 mph fastball and 70-ish changeup. Mets OF Gerald Williams set up Lowry in a recent game, swinging through a changeup to tempt Lowry into throwing another one. Lowry did just that, and Williams hit a home run. The solution for Lowry is to throw his change-up harder.... The Rangers' rotation began the week 11th in the league in innings pitched, yet only one of the team's relievers, RHP Carlos Almanzar, ranked in the top 25 in relief innings--and he was 16th. It helps that that so many different relievers have been effective, but Buck Showalter has excelled at keeping his bullpen flesh, one of a manager's most difficult tasks.... Don't overlook the Braves' and Twins' bullpens. The arrival of RHP Roman Colon gives the Braves five relievers who throw at least 95 mph, and a September call-up of RHP Jose Capellan would make six. Nearly everyone in the Twins' bullpen throws 93 to 97 mph, and RHPs Juan Rincon, Grant Balfour and Joe Nathan all are tough on lefthanded batters.

RELATED ARTICLE: Playoff hopefuls might want to get Cards or Yanks in a Division Series.

The Cardinals own the best record in the National League by a wide margin, and the Yankees are reasonably comfortable in the A.L.--seemingly adding drama to the race for second place in each league's standings. By avoiding the No. 1 seeds in the Division Series, the No. 2 seeds would have an easier path to the League Championship Series, right?

Not necessarily.

Several N.L. clubs fear the Cubs, a potential wild-card team, as much as they do the Cardinals, a team with a less imposing rotation. The Yankees, meanwhile, are full of pitching questions and no longer have postseason warhorses Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and David Wells to provide answers.

Five A.L. contenders--the A's, Twins, Red Sox, Angels and Rangers--topped the league's team ERA rankings at the start of the week. The Yankees were seventh, and their rotation isn't their only concern. Relievers Paul Quantrill, Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera ranked among the league leaders in appearances, raising the possibility of fatigue.

Back in the N.L., the Cardinals have lefthanded reliever Steve Kline on the disabled list, the Dodgers lack a proven setup man, and the Braves keep building momentum. Parity in the regular season, parity in the postseason. What is this, the NFL?--K.R.

KEN ROSENTHAL

kenrosenthal@sportingnews.com

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