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Insights from the editors of Fantasy Source Baseball, your online fantasy authority. fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball

ROTO RAP

by BRENDAN ROBERTS

That late-night TV sports ticker can be so friendly to a fantasy baseball owner. You get a warm feeling when you see that the Yankees scored 12 runs, knowing that you're loaded with Yankees hitters. What a delight it will be to check the box score ... until you find your own Bernie Williams was taking the day off, Derek Jeter went 1-for-5 with a meaningless single and Hideki Matsui went 0-for-4. All the damage was done by Ruben Sierra, Gary Sheffield and Enrique Wilson.

Been there, done that. But high run outputs usually do result from a burst of power or from production up and down the lineup.

Of course, there's a flip side: What if those same Yanks turn into the Expos or Mariners for a day and are blanked?

As the playoffs draw near in head-to-head leagues and the stretch run continues in Roto leagues, a few concerned owners have e-mailed us about "putting all their eggs in one basket" by having too many players from the same team.

That's a legitimate concern, but one this fantasy owner usually doesn't bother with. You are investing in players, not teams. Sure, a player's value might increase or decrease based on his team, but owners need not worry about Player A doing poorly just because Player B does. Even if a team is shut out, it doesn't mean every player will he shut out. A team could get just three hits, but one player might have all those hits. Baseball is a team game, but it's composed of individual encounters.

In studying baseball statistics, I've noticed it's rare that a player's per-year production rises or falls more than 20 percent because of his line-up. Sure, position battles affect statistics, as do ballparks. But in terms of per-game production, players will produce roughly the same regardless of the situation. Put lira Thome in Seattle or Montreal, and he still would put up huge numbers.

A fantasy owner must he aware of many variables when trying to get into the money, but team overload isn't one of them.

M@IL BONDING

CHRIS BAHR ANSWERS YOUR QUESTIONS

Who has better long-term potential: the Pirates' Oliver Perez or the Padres' Jake Peavy?

Brent Haynes, Toronto

Brent: Both are 23 and are strong keeper candidates. For the long haul, however, I like Perez more because of his strikeouts. He is averaging 11.0 per nine innings this season. Peavy is a more polished pitcher and is on a stronger team, giving him an advantage in the win column. Perez, though, could be dominant if he improves his control. He can strike out 10 and walk five in a game. That will improve with experience.

To submit a question to our fantasy experts, click on Daily Mail at fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball

TOP FIVE Bargain closers who are potential keepers:

1 Joe Nathan, Twins. Nobody expected Nathan, 29, to be this good; he has just three blown saves all season. As long as he's healthy, he'll be Minnesota's guy.

2 Shingo Takatsu, White Sox. If the White Sox aren't gutted in the off-season, Takatsu will be a top 10 closer next year. His ability to change speeds, in particular with his 60-mph breaking ball, stifles hitters.

3 Brad Lidge, Astros. Recent shoulder pain shouldn't be too much of a concern, but Lidge's value will take a hit if the Astros are in rebuilding mode next season.

4 Chad Cordero, Expos. He has been shaky since becoming Montreal's closer in June, but he's young and will improve in 2005.

5 Jason Fraser, Blue Jays. Despite his recent struggles, Frasor has proved himself worthy of keeping the role in 2005. He has one blown save in 18 chances this season.--Roger Kuznia

WIRE WATCH

September came early for some teams. Recent minor league call-ups who could make a difference in your fantasy team's offensive numbers:

J.D. Closser, C, Rockies. The team has made it clear that it wants to see what Closser can do, so keep an eye on the situation. Charles Johnson is Colorado's No. 1 catcher, but with the team eager to get more playing time for Closser, Johnson is more open to accepting a trade in the offseason and might play less down the stretch.

Freddy Guzman, OF, Padres. Jay Payton and Terrence Long haven't gotten the job done in San Diego, prompting the team to promote the speedy Guzman from Class AM Portland. He had been considered the team's leadoff man of the future. Well, the future is now.

Calvin Pickering, 1B, Royals. Pickering had a huge year at Class AAA Omaha (.314 average and 35 homers in 299 at-bats) and hit three homers in his first two games with the Royals. The team might trade Mike Sweeney in the offseason, so if Pickering plays well the rest of the way (Sweeney and Ken Harvey are on the disabled list, which means Picketing will play a lot), he could be a regular in Kansas City next season.--Kevin Wheeler

To submit a question to our fantasy experts, click on Daily Mail at fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball.