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Early upsets are to be expected

Sporting News, The, Sept 20, 2004 by Brian Baldinger

So, the Browns beat the Ravens last week. And the Lions actually won on the road. Were you surprised? Not me. September "upsets" are as inevitable as a J-Lo divorce.

Why? Teams aren't ready to start the season. They never are. The preseason has become so removed from reality that when teams line up for their openers, coaches have no idea what to expect.

The problem is both self-inflicted and understandable. Coaches are scared about losing key players to preseason injuries, so they keep them off the field. I'm sure Dan Reeves wishes he had played Michael Vick in one less preseason series against the Ravens a year ago. Coaches also want to observe their fringe players to help make tough roster decisions. Can't argue with that.

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I can, however, dispute the notion coaches should keep their schemes vanilla in the preseason. The idea is if you show little of your playbook in August, your Week 1 opponent will have no useful film to study. Then you can catch the team off-guard with the schemes you've been hiding. Nonsense. You might enjoy a bit of a surprise element, but it's more likely that you'll surprise yourself even more.

For teams to click, they must work at real-time speed, which means game situations. But if teams don't run anything out of the ordinary in exhibition games--and if it's practice squad wannabes getting most of that work--how can the starting units establish an identity? There's no way a team can start a season hitting on all cylinders when it has been stuck in idle all summer. This is particularly true of teams that have undergone substantial turnover, which these days means most everybody.

I understand coaches looking for rely edge they can gain, but they might well go ahead and run their true schemes during tuneup time. That way their players won't be tripping over each other the first couple of games, by which time the film will be out there for the world to see anyway.

A year ago, the Patriots lost their opener, 31-0, and were 2-2 at the quarter pole. It took Tom Brady and Co. that king to find their rhythm. That should help keep these September upsets in perspective.

Brian Baldinger, an offensive lineman for 12 NFL seasons, can be heard on Sporting News Radio and seen on Fox Sports. Listen online at radio.sportingnews.com

DRAFT DISH

By WAR ROOM SCOUTS

Miami (Fla.) CB Antrel Rolle showed he's a big-game playmaker by putting up six tackles and a sack against Florida State. With excellent speed, strength, size (6-1, 202) and athleticism, he's a prospect in the mold of the Ravens' Chris McAlister. Rolle smothers receivers in press coverage and is a tremendous tackler who loves to hit. Past legal issues could affect his draft stock, so Rolle will need to prove himself off the field this year. If he does, he's a sure-fire top 10 pick in April.... Florida State WR Craphonso Thorpe is considered a high first-round prospect, but he has work to do after grabbing five passes for only 45 yards against Miami. He broke his lower tibia and fibula late last season and must prove his speed and strength are back.... Florida State's Chris Rix is as physically gifted as any quarterback in the nation, but if he doesn't show more consistency, teams might not want to risk even a late-round pick on him. For now, he is considered a Day 2 prospect.... Florida State OT Alex Barron has tremendous size (6-6, 308), strength and quick feet, but he needs to improve his technique and show he can protect the quarterback. Injuries have slowed his progress, but Barren has showed flashes of brilliance--especially as a run blocker. He has the potential to be the first offensive tackle drafted in April and an NFL standout.

Early upsets are to be expected

Sporting News, The, Sept 20, 2004 by Brian Baldinger

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