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Trap games don't ensnare true contenders

Sporting News, The, Sept 20, 2004 by Matt Hayes

There comes a point in a program's maturation when a team wins games it's supposed to win. Sounds fairly basic, right? Well, it's far from it.

These supposed-to-win matchups test the growth and stability of a program, revealing whether it has the steel rivets in place to hold everything together in the face of trouble. Eventually, there comes a moment when these games no longer are traps, no longer dangerous dances that can stall a program's growth.

That moment is not when a 280-pound offensive lineman picks up a fumble and rumbles not 10, not 20, bat more than 50-50!--yards for a touchdown, running away from the linebackers and secondary of the team that's supposed to win. This is not growth. This is gross.

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After Missouri's meltdown last week, we know that program isn't quite where we thought it would be. It couldn't stay out of a trap that included the once-in-a-lifetime play from Troy's Junior Louissaint--you know, the big dude with Carl Lewis wheels. Why is this so important? Because teams that win games they should win--roughly five or six per season--become teams that put together magical championship runs every few years while consistently churning out strong seasons.

Here's the formula for a successful program: Win the five or six games you're supposed to win, then go .500 or better in your five or six tossups. Once a program gets past losing games it should win, it won't be long before it learns how to win tossup games--and championships.

Missouri tailed in its first such test this season; others have not. A look at four other rising programs and their trap games:

California. Everybody loves the Bears. The hotshot quarterback, the point-a-minute offense and the outspoken offensive wizard of a coach. But don't forget this is a program three years removed from a 1-10 season and college football oblivion under former coach Tom Holmoe.

Cal passed its first trap test, rolling on the road against the triple-option offense of annually tough Air Force. Now comes No. 2 this week at BCS-buster Southern Miss--a Thursday night matchup on national television with a short week to prepare. Oh yeah, and a long plane ride to the backwoods of Mississippi.

A victory gives the Bears confidence and swagger heading into tossup games at Oregon State and at USC; a loss at Southern Miss would be deflating. Some history: The Bears lost at home to Colorado State last season and couldn't recover a week later, losing at Utah in another trap game. Those two defeats prevented a 10-win season, which would have been a remarkable feat considering the mess coach Jeff Tedford inherited three years ago.

Minnesota. Don't be fooled by last year's "breakout" 10-win season. Yeah, it was nice, but I could rattle off double-digit, middle-of-the-road teams that would have won 10 games against that cream-puff schedule.

The Gophers dodged a big trap in this season's opener, manhandling a Toledo team that, going into the season, had enough oomph to scare the BCS honchos. Trap game No. 2 is at Colorado State. The Rams are winless and desperate, and their talent is much better than your typical 0-2 team. With a victory, Minnesota sets up two games it should win (home against Northwestern and Penn State) before a tossup game at Michigan that will affect the conference race.

C-State will play with passion and urgency, but Minnesota is playing nasty defense--check out quick rush ends Darrell Reid and Eric Clark--for the first time under coach Glen Mason. If the Gophers avoid this trap and beat Michigan in Week 6, they might not lose until November.

Oklahoma State, At this point, with untested freshman Donovan Woods at quarterback, every game for the Cowboys comes with some uncertainty. But OSU cleared its trap game--an impressive win at UCLA in the opener--to set up what could be another nine-win season. The Cowboys shouldn't have a tossup game until October 9 at Colorado.

Here's why Okie State could be 7-0 by the time a two-week tussle against Oklahoma and Texas rolls around in late October: OSU will keep it simple and allow Woods to develop in the offense. The best offensive line in the Big L 2 and rugged tailback Vernand Morency will keep the pressure off Woods and let coach Les Miles utilize his conservative style.

So what if it's boring? It will put the Cowboys in position to play for the South Division title and a spot in the Big 12 championship game.

Memphis. The first trap--at/Mississippi in the opener--has been cleared. The next, September 25 at UAB, won't be as easy. Conference trap games are more difficult to navigate for the bigger guy because opponents know their schemes and tendencies from annual games, and because there's a conference title to compete for.

Invariably, conference traps are road games, and though a quarter-full Legion Field in Birmingham doesn't seem too intimidating, it's a big obstacle considering the Blazers have won the last four games between the teams. But Memphis is loaded and better than UAB; it's just that simple. This is a must-win in the growth of the Tigers' program, a win that could set up a 7-0 start entering a game against C-USA favorite Louisville.

Trap games don't ensnare true contenders

Sporting News, The, Sept 20, 2004 by Matt Hayes

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