The N.L. champion will be …

Sporting News, The, Oct 2, 2000 by Stan McNeal

Based on a study of head-to-head statistics--or actually, head-to-head-to-head-to-head--TSN has figured out who will win the hotly contested race for the National League pennant: the Braves.

They were the only team with a winning record against the other three. The Braves also had the highest batting average and the best performance by a starting pitcher--Tom Glavine went 6-1 against San Francisco, St. Louis and the Mets.

But the stats say it'll be close. Every team had an edge:

The Mets had the best go-to hitter.

The Giants scored the most runs.

The Cardinals had the best balance with the second-best ERA and the second-most runs.

There were only two lopsided series: The Braves won six of nine against the Giants, but that was before the Giants went on their second-half roll. The Mets took six of nine from the Cardinals, although the Cardinals won the final three games in such exciting fashion that the Mets still haven't recovered.

These stats do not include this week's series between the Braves and Mets.

Breakdown by records

Team            Overall   Home   Road   Extra   One-run   Run diff.

Atlanta          15-11    10-6   5-5     0-0      3-0        -6
San Francisco    13-13     8-2   5-11    1-0      2-5         20
N.Y. Mets        13-14     8-3   5-11    0-2      3-4        -20
St. Louis        11-14     7-8   4-6     1-0      4-4         6

Batting comparison

Team             AB    H    Avg.   Avg.runs   HR

Atlanta         869   247   .284     4.9      23
N.Y. Mets       871   206   .236     4.1      32
San Francisco   871   224   .257     5.5      31
St. Louis       847   225   .266     5.1      35

Pitching comparison

Team             IP      ER    ERA    H    CG   HR

Atlanta         229     118   4.64   219    1   34
San Francisco   225.1   105   4.20   241    2   34
N.Y. Mets       237     120   4.56   226    1   22
St. Louis       220     108   4.42   216    3   31

Comparing the go-to hitters

Player, team            AB    H   Avg.   HR   RBI

Chipper Jones, Braves   92   29   .315    5    15
Barry Bonds, Giants     71   20   .282    5    10
Mike Piazza, Mets       74   26   .351    8    17
Jim Edmonds, Cardinal   98   26   .265    8    19

Comparing the projected No. 1 starters

Pitcher, team             W-L   IP      ERA    H   HR   BB   SO

Greg Maddux, Braves       3-3   38     4.50   36    6    6   23
Livan Hernandez, Giants   3-3   43     3.14   42    4   14   36
Al Leiter, Mets           4-1   34.2   1.82   21    1    9   41
Darryl Kile, Cardinals    2-2   28.1   4.80   34    4    6   23

Comparing the projected No. 2 starters

Pitcher, team         W-L    IP     ERA    H   HR   BB   SO

Tom Glavine, Braves   6-1   45.1   4.17   44    6   13   26
Shawn Estes, Giants   2-1   27.2   5.20   32    3   21   16
Mike Hampton, Mets    2-2   41.2   3.89   43    1   25   19
Garrett Stephenson,   3-3   42     4.71   46    8   17   30
  Cardinals

Comparing the projected No. 3 starters

Pitcher, team            W-L   IP      ERA    H   HR   BB   SO

Kevin Millwood, Braves   1-1   25     4.68   25    5    6   19
Russ Ortiz, Giants       2-4   36     6.00   45    9   25   21
Glendon Rusch, Mets      2-3   31.2   5.40   43    2    6   28
Rick Ankiel, Cardinals   1-0   13     2.08    5    1    8   16

Comparing the closers

Pitcher, team           Sa   S Opp.    IP.    ERA

John Rocker, Braves      2     2       6.2   4.35
Robb Nen, Giants         5     5       8.0   0.00
Armando Benitez, Mets    6     6      11.2   1.54
Dave Veres, Cardinals    1     4       9.1   4.84

Pitcher, team            H   HR   BB   SO

John Rocker, Braves      5    1    4    7
Robb Nen, Giants         4    0    2    8
Armando Benitez, Mets    5    1    7   13
Dave Veres, Cardinals   11    2    4    9