Money can buy happiness: we won't see another $252 million contract. But with revenue high and plenty of quality free agents available, teams have no excuse not to improve this offseason

Sporting News, The, Oct 11, 2004 by Ken Rosenthal

No longer can Major League Baseball claim it's going broke. Attendance is up. Revenues are up. The sad-sack Milwaukee Brewers were just sold, reportedly for $220 million--about $35 million more than the Anaheim Angels, playing in a larger market, commanded less than 18 months ago. The Expos will go for an even higher price as MLB leaves sagging Montreal for booming Washington, D.C.

The excuses are dwindling for owners who want to suppress the free-agent market for a fourth straight offseason. Oh, clubs still will adhere to the debt-ratio rule, a handy little MLB device that forces teams to exercise financial restraint. Insurance policies that limit disability coverage to three years will serve as another inhibitor, discouraging teams from making long-term commitments except in rare cases.

But if the offseason concludes without your preferred branch of the MLB monopoly spending on improvements, you should ask--in a voice loud enough to resonate from the MLB offices in New York to commissioner Bud Selig's office in Milwaukee--"Excuse me, what the heck is going On?"

This isn't to say that the market should return to the outrageous level of the 2000 winter meetings, when shortstop Alex Rodriguez commanded $252 million, outfielder Manny Ramirez $160 million and pitcher Mike Hampton $121 million. But in recent years, teams have escaped bad contracts, turned loose unproductive arbitration-eligible players and taken a year-to-year approach with replaceable parts. Many of those clubs are in better position to spend.

A flooded market will drive down prices. Clubs are swimming in revenues that could top $4 billion. And MLB's revenue-sharing plan will be fully implemented for the first time in 2005, with reallocations from the high-revenue teams to the low revenue clubs possibly exceeding $250 million.

"With revenues and profit margins having gone up dramatically, this market can be as healthy as it was in 2000," says agent Scott Boras, whose free-agent clients include Astros center fielder Carlos Beltran, Dodgers third baseman Adrian Beltre and Red Sex righthander Derek Lowe. "A lot of owners and general managers understand there are smart moves to be made."

Boras' self interest aside, the market is indeed brimming with talent.

Need a five-tool center fielder who is 27? Beltran is available. How about a 25-year-old third baseman who tied the single-season home run record at his position? Beltre can be had. Granted, those players might be affordable to only a select few clubs. But the market offers numerous alternatives--the Braves' J.D. Drew, White Sox's Magglio Ordonez and Dodgers' Steve Finley in the outfield; the Angels' Troy Glaus, Rockies' Vinny Castilla and Twins' Corey Koskie at third. It's the same at virtually every position.

The injury-marred seasons of the Yankees, Cubs and Astros demonstrated anew that teams never can have enough starting pitching. Not to worry: The available starters include not just future Hall of Famers Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez, but also a number of other capable veterans, ranging from the Marlins' Carl Pavano to the Twins' Brad Radke, the Braves' Russ Ortiz to the Cardinals' Matt Morris.

"Generally speaking, the market provides a team with a chance to have more options than it has in the past," says Braves general manager John Schuerholz, who scored last offseason by signing 14-game winner John Thomson to a two-year, $7 million contract. "People have to make tough choices about structuring their rosters as it relates not only to ability, but also to cost. When cost prevails--as it sometimes has to--then there are guys with ability out there."

Those players aren't all snapped up by high-revenue clubs. Several midlevel teams struck it big in the free-agent market last offseason. Catcher Ivan Rodriguez helped return the Tigers to respectability. Shortstop Miguel Tejada gave the Orioles an MVP-caliber performance. Pitcher Kenny Rogers won 18 games for the Rangers, helping them contend.

A number of low-revenue clubs, meanwhile, uncovered surprising bargains. Castilla and outfielder Jeromy Burnitz hit 72 homers combined for the Rockies at a total cost of less than $3.5 million. Third baseman Tony Batista hit 32 home runs for the Expos for $1.5 million. Jose Mesa saved 43 games for the Pirates for $800,000.

Such signings are exceptions, and financially strapped teams such as the Pirates, Devil Rays and Royals remain at a competitive disadvantage. But the Expos could be more aggressive in D.C. than they were in Montreal. Other teams, most notably the Mariners and Mets, will have money to burn as burdensome contracts expire. Still others, including the Orioles and Tigers, will want to continue building momentum.

The excesses of the 2000 winter meetings disgusted many inside and outside of baseball. The owners have since clamped down, evoking frustrated whispers of "legalized collusion" from player agents. No one expects the pent-up energy to spark an unrestrained spending spree. But the players are out there. The money is flowing in.