Slim pickings: hard-throwing, trouble-stirring A.J. Burnett will be the most coveted player in a shallow free-agent pool

This is a good time to be A.J. Burnett. That wasn't the case last week, of course, when Burnett, in quick succession, lost his sixth consecutive decision, lost his sense when he ripped manager Jack McKeon and the Marlins' coaching staff and then lost his job. The Marlins sent him home six days before the season ended, one inning short of a $50,000 performance bonus.

But all that soon will be rendered irrelevant because Burnett is going to become a free agent. By Christmas, he figures to be a very rich man, the proud owner of a new contract worth at least $30 million. Burnett may be a moody malcontent, but he is 28 and has a right arm blessed by the baseball gods, one capable of throwing 100-mph fastballs and knee-buckling curveballs.

With the free-agent talent pool no deeper than the Everglades at low tide, Burnett will be the most sought-after player on the market. "There's always an attraction for the marquee player. That's not going to change," Phillies general manager Ed Wade says. "A guy with the quality of Burnett--there probably isn't a bad year to be A.J. Burnett."

Other than Burnett, only a handful of potential impact players are expected to make it to the market. Braves shortstop Rafael Furcal, who arguably isn't even one of the five best players on his own team, figures to be the position player in highest demand. With such a lack of difference-makers available, one G.M. predicts there will be "a wild, expensive" bidding war for the top few free agents, though a repeat of last winter's spending frenzy is not expected.

That doesn't mean clubs are short on financial resources. There is no talk of fire sales these days, not after half the teams remained in contention until September and attendance records were broken from Anaheim to New York. Even the lowly Royals plan to increase their payroll by at least 30 percent. The problem is the shortage of elite players to spend on. Only one position, closer, will have a better than average crop of available players on the market.

In the absence of free-agent options, expect teams to turn to trading as a means of quick improvement. Names such as Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Alfonso Soriano and Ken Griffey will be mentioned in trade rumors. A lot of trade talk, in turn, could slow the pace of free-agent signings because clubs aren't likely to spend heavily until they've run through their trade options. That could take time, says Astros general manager Tim Purpura, who believes the modest amount of activity at the July trading deadline could lead to a flurry of deals this winter. "People were holding on to their position players in anticipation of making trades during the offseason," he says.

So you can see how this could take a while to sort out. "It figures to be a slower-developing market just from the standpoint that if a player and his representatives feel that he's the key in the market, they're going to want to make sure the last dollar's on the table and that teams have exhausted other avenues to try to improve," Wade says.

With suitors lining up, don't expect Burnett to rush his decision. The Blue Jays, who have the freedom to spend big, dispatched a scout to three of Burnett's September starts. The Tigers, Rangers and Orioles also got closer looks. The Red Sox are so interested they sent one of G.M. Theo Epstein's top lieutenants, Bill Lajoie, to monitor Burnett's situation.

Though his meltdown raised eyebrows, Burnett's upside--Curt Schilling, among others, says he has the best pure stuff in baseball--as well as his age and the thin market could push the bidding for him to $48 million over four years.

Expect clubs that woo Burnett to point to his 35 wins in his past three full seasons, his major league-leading five shutouts in 2002 and a 3.73 career ERA while saying they're confident he will thrive in the right environment. Those who fold early will point to his 49-50 lifetime record, six trips to the disabled list and the elbow surgery that sidelined him for much of 2003.

The only thing for certain, then, is that someone will be wrong and someone will be right--maybe at the same time. All you have to do is look at last year's free agents for examples of that. Troy Glans, coming off a shoulder injury, was thought to be a risky signing for the Diamondbacks at $45 million over four years. But with 37 homers and 97 RBis, he turned out to be one of the most productive members of the class of 2004. Teammate Russ Ortiz, meanwhile, got $33 million for four years-not outrageous, considering the high cost of pitching--but he posted a career-worst 6.89 ERA and a 5-11 record.

"You're still talking about speculation in the free-agent market," says Burnett's agent, Darek Braunecker. "That's what free agency is about-speculating on what guys are going to do."

This year, that speculation starts with Burnett.

2005 All-free-agent team Age in parenthesis

Starting pitchers

1. A.J. Burnett (28)