Offseason will determine first-round losers' fates

Sporting News, The, Oct 25, 1999 by Jon Heyman

The four teams that went out the fastest in the playoffs averaged 97 victories. However, financial problems have caused the Rangers, Astros and Diamondbacks to hint they may scale back. This should be a big winter for blockbuster trades, and the first-round losers should be in the thick of things. The free-agent crop is the thinnest in years. But with several megastars due to become free agents after the 2000 season (Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado, Craig Biggio, Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, etc.), the trade market will be hot.

It's going to take more than cash' (i.e. ingenuity, creativity and luck) to get better this winter. With that in mind, we analyze all four teams:

* Texas. Trading Gonzalez is no longer unthinkable. The Rangers want to reduce their payroll from $75 million, which Mil be hard if they keep Gonzalez, whose contract calls for $7.5 million this year but probably twice that in a new contract.

Minor leaguer Mike Lamb might be ready at third, so free agent Todd Zeile probably won't be re-signed. Talented but injury-plagued Ruben Mateo should take over in center for Tom Goodwin. However, if Mark McLemore leaves as a free agent, the team will need a leadoff hitter and second baseman. A deal for Milwaukee's Fernando Vina would make sense.

Knowing the Tigers are desperate for a slugger, the Rangers, who need lefthanded pitching, could dangle Gonzalez for young lefthander Justin Thompson and second baseman Damion Easley. The Mets, with Gonzalez's old manager Bobby Valentine, and the Dodgers, assuming they deal Raul Mondesi, also could use Gonzalez.

If they can't re-sign 18-game winner Aaron Sele, the Rangers should try to lure two of the following free-agent lefthanders: Chuck Finley, Kenny Rogers and Darren Oliver. Finley, a proven Yankees and Indians killer, tops the list.

* Houston. The Astros need more lefthanders in the lineup, so trading Moises Alou, who missed the season with a knee injury, makes sense. The hard part will be getting equal value. As with Gonzalez, the Tigers, Mets and Dodgers could be interested. Derek Bell's time in Houston also should be up after his horrendous season.

The team must balance its lineup, which hits poorly against righthanders and is too dependent on Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Perhaps some seasoning for Richard Hidalgo and Daryle Ward, a lefthanded power hitter, will help an offense that ranked eighth (823 runs) in the league.

If the team is tempted to deal Biggio, it should squelch it. It needs feisty fellows like Biggio to overcome Braves phobia. Houston also needs to beef up its middle relief.

* Cleveland. Mike Hargrove is out, which leaves the team searching for a new manager, with Charlie Manuel and Buddy Bell the top two candidates. Hargrove brought stability and integrity to his job, but G.M. John Hart was itching to fire him for years. Hargrove wasn't great strategically, but he wasn't the problem, either. The real problem, as everyone knows, is pitching. After trading Brian Giles and Sean Casey for mound help, Russell Branyan, an all-or-nothing power man, is the latest young star who may be dangled.

They should consider trading Ramirez, who won't fit into their previous unofficial, one-player cap of $10 million. This strategy of having several good players instead of one or two who bust the budget has served them extremely well. The trade market will include a few superstar outfielders, but Ramirez, with his 165 RBIs, could bring the No. 1 pitcher they need.

* Arizona. The Diamondbacks got to the top of the division so quickly by spending wisely. But after using $66 million for player salaries, they probably are due for some belt tightening. If they get lucky and Andy Benes opts out of his contract, they can save $6 million and use Brian Anderson to replace him. The greater worry should be age. The D-backs have a nice team, with few weaknesses. The question is: For how long? Their top players are almost all 30-something, including Todd Stottlemyre, Matt Williams, Randy Johnson, Steve Finley, Luis Gonzalez and Jay Bell.

There has been speculation about dealing Hanley Frias and Travis Lee. If the team believes these youngsters won't blossom into stars (and that Erubiel Durazo was no mirage at first base), that's fine. But it had better be sure.

Jon Heyman is a national baseball columnist for Newsday in New York. E-mail him at jheyman@sportingnews.com.

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