Letter perfect: halfway through, the 2004 season has it all—a packed Heisman race, several new powerhouse teams and a potentially explosive situation at the top of the BCS poll

Matt Hayes

They swore it would be easier this time around, proclaiming that, really, seriously, this was the best way. The computers wouldn't carry as much weight. Opponents' opponents' schedules and "value points"--and God knows what other useless numbers those computer nerds decided were imperative to the game--were no longer part of the equation.

Not surprisingly, the BCS scene--college football's annual bellyache--is as twisted and tumultuous as ever, no matter what the BCS honchos say. Multiple unbeaten teams and multiple one-loss teams and multiple non-BCS teams could wind up kvetching and crying, and would it really be so shocking if any team--even Southern California or Oklahoma--ended up on the wrong side of an upset before the second week in December? If there's one thing we've learned from this annual chaos, it's that a team we'd never have believed could be playing for it all will be playing for it all come January.

We're halfway through another beautifully baffling season, and there's no clear No. 1, no Heisman Trophy candidate who has separated himself from the rest of the field and no idea who will be playing in the Orange Bowl national championship game. In short, we don't know who will be holding that Waterford crystal football at the end of the season--and more important, if it will signify half or all of the national championship.

From A to Z, we're wrapping up the first half of the season and forecasting the second. Hey, at least it's less confusing than the BCS.

Another fine mess for the BCS. Let's say Southern California loses once, California wins out and there is only one unbeaten team from a BCS conference. But the computer polls spit out some strange math, and Cal goes to the Orange Bowl to play for the national championship while USC is left with the Rose--despite its victory over the Bears. Don't think it can't happen. In 2000, Miami beat Florida State, both teams finished with one loss, but the Seminoles went to the Orange Bowl instead of Miami because of some funky BCS numbers. So let's say USC, Oklahoma, Auburn and Wisconsin all finish unbeaten--not that much of a stretch. Like it or not, somebody will get hosed. How crazy could it get? Georgia, TSN's preseason pick to win it all, isn't out of it yet. In fact, as many as a half-dozen one-loss teams have hope.

Everyone breathe and discuss.

Cedric Benson, meet Chris Simms and Roy Williams and just about every other elite skill player Texas coach Mack Brown somehow convinced to come to Austin for all the glitz and glory of ... finishing second in the Big 12 South. OK, so Mack didn't convince every high school star. One certain tailback from Brown's home state of Texas chose to play for that team to the north of the Red River and is merely, oh, threatening to win the Heisman as a freshman. But do we really need to rub it in?

Cadillac and Campbell--the keys to Auburn reaching its potential a year later than expected. No one runs harder or has better shakes than tailback Carnell "Cadillac" Williams. He's more dynamic this season because he's healthy and because quarterback Jason Campbell finally is comfortable, with his fourth offensive coordinator--and fourth offensive scheme--in four years. If Auburn beats Georgia on November 13, no one in the SEC will touch the Tigers the rest of the way.

Defense--its a premium. Of the past four BCS champions. only Ohio State (23rd) didn't finish in the top eight in total defense. But let's not kid ourselves: The Buckeyes had the nation's best defense by the end of the 2002 season. Just ask Ken Dorsey, Andre Johnson, Willis McGahee and all of those NFL players on the Miami offense that Ohio State stopped in the Fiesta Bowl.

Among the top 10 defenses at the midway point: Wisconsin, Miami and--this is not a misprint--California (see: A).

Erik Ainge has Tennessee leading the pack in the SEC East, and the gangly, fiery freshman quarterback's arm strength and moxie make him look a lot like some guy named Manning, who has a wax statue--don't make me explain this; this is what they do in the South--in the school's hall of fame. Ainge has victories against Florida and Georgia in the same season, which is something Manning never accomplished. Ainge could get another shot at Auburn--retribution for his five-turnover performance against the Tigers earlier this month--in the SEC championship game.

Five games that will define the championship race:

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, October 30. Dear Les: Can you please give me some pointers on beating the Sooners? Love, Mack.

Georgia at Auburn, November 13. Recent history shows the visiting team in this series is more likely to win the game. Yeah, well, to hell with history.

Miami at Virginia, November 13. The Canes are back, baby! They're unbeaten, they've got the swagger, and they've got Brock Ber ... pssst, think Miami at Virginia Tech, circa 2003. It'll be identical.

Wisconsin at Iowa, November 20. It's the last game of the season for the Badgers and the last chance for anyone in the Big Ten to stop UW's unbeaten season.

Notre Dame at USC, November 27. The Irish will have three or four losses by late November. What better way to salvage the season?

Matt Gutierrez, meet Wally Pipp. Here we have Gutierrez, a sophomore quarterback set to begin his career as the Next Big Thing at Michigan. Suddenly, he comes down with some mysterious shoulder injury a few days before the season opener. Then freshman phenom Chad Henne steps in. Now the Michigan offense is rolling. Gutierrez might as well transfer.

Coach Pat Hill's quote: "If we run the table, I think the nation will demand a (BCS) game."

Hill's Fresno State team began the season with back-to-back wins over rebuilding BCS powers Washington and Kansas State and since has lost back-to-back games to two other rebuilding teams: WAC rivals Louisiana Tech and UTEP.

Hey, Pat? That "anyone, anytime, anywhere" shtick is a little tired. How about worrying about your own league first--and about how Mike Price and UTEP have leapfrogged your t show in less than one season.

Instant replay: The Big Ten hasn't used/ needed it to overturn a significant play yet.

Revel in the Joy of overtime. You know you've got a good thing going when NFL analysts complain the college game does it better.

Kickers, take heart. I've said it once, and I'll say it again: If your game rides on the leg of a kicker in the dosing seconds (see: Purdue, Oregon State, Northwestern, etc.), you didn't do enough in the previous 59 minutes to win.

Where's the Love for Matt Leinart? The true measure of a Heisman winner: saving his best for big games and key situations. Who in the country fits that mold better than USC's quarterback?

Ryan Moats is the best tailback you've never heard of. The Louisiana Tech junior will lead the nation in rushing by the time we check out in January. More important, he could help make another potential BCS headache, Boise State, go away on November 20 with a victory at Boise.

Nails. As in the Wisconsin defense. As in Wisconsin's road moxie. As if anyone can convince me tough-guy coach Barry Alvarez doesn't chew nails.

How do you spell Ohio? H-I.

The H-I State Buckeyes--they have no O.

Bada bing!

It's Painful to watch the unraveling of Joe Paterno's program at Penn State. The Nits are 2-4 and have lost 10 of their past 11 Big Ten games. There likely is one win left on this year's schedule (at Indiana)--and that's pushing it. It's enough to break out some vintage Paper Lace lyrics:

      I heard my mamma cry,
      I heard her pray the night
   Joe Pa's legacy died.
      Brother, he should've walked
   away,
      Brother, he shouldn't have
   made them pray.
      Glory be.

The ever-present Q rating is, in layman's terms, the measure of a player's name recognition. These five guys aren't exactly Q just yet--maybe, say, rounding the corner of L-M-N-O-P--but they will be there by the end of the season.

Player                       Q him up

RB Michael Hart, Michigan    Chad Henne gets the attention, but Hart,
                             another freshman, gives the offense
                             balance and a game-breaking threat.

QB Alex Smith, Utah          Forget about Brad Smith or Vince Young:
                             no one runs the read option offense
                             better than this Smith.

RB Maurice Drew, UCLA        He has the speed, deceptive strength and
                             wow-ability of Reggie Bush--but, at 5-8,
                             he's about 4 inches short.

WR Todd Watkins, BYU         With his speed and fantastic balance,
                             if he 'played at USC, he'd be an
                             All-American.

DE Anthony Spencer, Purdue   Once he learns more rush moves, he'll be
                             unblockable without help.

Reggie Bush--when he touches the ball for USC, you hold your breath.

Sure, FSU's Wyatt Sexton looks like you, lanky, Joe Average quarterback, but understand this: At least he's not Chris Rix. And for the Seminoles, that could mean a 10-game winning streak and finding a way to the Orange Bowl.

Who wants a piece of Texas A&M? Oklahoma travels to College Station on November 6 to take on the surging Aggies, a game that could end the Sooners' Big 12 and national championship hopes. The Aggies are a lock for a bowl--continuing coach Dennis Franchlone's turnaround pattern of his teams reaching a bowl game in his second season.

U better believe Urban Meyer's Utah team will be unbeaten come December, and U better believe the Utes would win the Big East or the Big 12 North Division or maybe, just maybe, the SEC West. Meyer is a young Nick Saban: a masterful motivator and game planner who gets the most out of his players.

OK, so Virginia tanked against Florida State. But the Cavaliers won't stumble against Miami in Charlottesville and will eliminate the Cardiac Canes from the Orange Bowl race.

Washington coach Keith Gilbertson will be the first to lose his job this season. Look, it's not Gilby's fault. He was put in an untenable situation when former Washington athletic director Barbara Hedges tried to save her tail with a quick-fix hire after panicking and firing Rick Neuheisel. Look for new athletic director Todd Turner to go hard after Missouri coach Gary Pinkel, a longtime UW assistant with ties to Seattle. Others on the hot seat and their potential replacements: Ron Zook, Florida / Urban Meyer, Utah John Bunting, North Carolina / Neuheisel Ben Turner, Illinois / Randy Edsall, Connecticut Gary Crowton, BYU / Bronco Mendenhall, BYU

Xavier Adibi, Virginia Tech's athletic, dynamic freshman linebacker, is a reason to watch the HoMes once he returns from a torn biceps in late October or early November. He played just one half against USC in the season opener but clearly was the best defensive player on the field that night.

Y? Because we haven't given up on Georgia, our preseason pick to win it all. USC will be the only unbeaten team at the end of the regular season, and the BCS will choose between numerous one-loss teams to fill the other Orange Bowl slot. If Georgia wins out and then wins the SEC--that means Tennessee will lose one more league game--the Bulldogs likely will have two wins against Auburn and a shiny trophy from the SEC, the nation's best conference. That should be enough, even for the computer geeks.

Ron Zook in the Joe Don Baker classic, Walking Tall--coming to a theater near you. Cut to Scene 1, outside of the Pi Kappa Phi fraternity in Gainesville, where Zook is huddled with a group of 18-, 19- and 20-year-olds yelling at, well, 18-, 19- and 20-year-olds.

Zook, screaming at those mean frat boys: "I'm not going to let you bring this (expletive) program down!"

Frat boy: "You beat us to it."

And there's nothing confusing about that.

Well, what do you know? Turns out the Sooners do have a guy who can throw the pill a little.

It's 15 straight and counting--wins, and games when Matt Leinart's

been the cuter quarterback.

No truth to the rumor Bama RVs will be pouring out of the state this time next month.

A win is a win ... but if it comes by three points at home against a non-BCS team, is it really?

The best one-loss team in the country, no ifs, ands or buts about it ... we think.

Seven down, four to go--bruised, battered, belittled and, yes, badgered offenses, that is.

It's a must-win for the Dawgs, but then, don't they all seem like must-wins in the SEC?

Wow. Did you see what that defense did to Virginia? Once more, with feeling: Wow.

How would the Utes fare in a real league like, say, the ACC? Why don't you ask North Carolina?

The remaining schedule is rough and tough. Can the same be said of the Longhorns?

What's left to play for? A Rose Bowl. Maybe even a Heisman Trophy" But that's it.

Yes, Erik Ainge looks unflappable. But how will he react after Tree Rollins bites him?

He's taken a lot of heat and deservedly so. But some things don't change--the man can coach.

TSN 12.5 Half the size, twice the sizzle

                                                     TV (all times
Rk. Team (last week)   W-L   Next up                 Eastern)

1. Oklahoma (1)        6-0   Kansas, 10/23           1 p.m., FSN

Well, what do you know? Turns out the Sooners do have a guy who can
throw the pill a little.

2. USC (2)             6-0   Washington, 10/23       6 p.m., FSN

It's 15 straight and counting--wins, and games when Matt Leinart's
been the cuter quarterback.

3. Auburn (3)          7-0   Kentucky, 10/23         None

No truth to the rumor Bama RVs will be pouring out of the state this
time next month.

4. Miami (4)           5-0   at N.C. State, 10/23    TBD

A win is a win ... but if it comes by three points at home against a
non-BCS team, is it really?

5. California (6)      4-1   at Arizona, 10/23       None

The best one-loss team in the country, no its, ands or buts about
it ... we think.

6. Wisconsin (10)      7-0   Northwestern, 10/23     Noon, ESPN

Seven down, four to go--bruised, battered, belittled and, yes,
badgered offenses, that is.

7. Georgia (8)         5-1   at Arkansas, 10/23      7 p.m., ESPN

It's a must-win for the Dawgs, but then, don't they all seem like
must-wins in the SEC?

8. Florida State (9)   5-1   at Wake Forest, 10/23   3:30 p.m., ABC
                                                     (regional)
Wow. Did you see what that defense did to Virginia? Once more, with
feeling: Wow.

9. Utah (12)           6-0   UNLV, 10/23             7 p.m., local only

How would the Utes fare in a real league like, say, the ACC? Why don't
you ask North Carolina?

10. Texas (11)         5-1   at Texas Tech, 10/23    7 p.m., TBS

The remaining schedule is rough and tough. Can the same be said of the
Longhorns?

11. Purdue (5)         5-1   Michigan, 10/23         3:30 p.m., ABC
                                                     (regional)

What's left to play for? A Rose Bowl. Maybe even a Heisman Trophy.
But that's it.

12. Tennessee (-)      5-1   Alabama, 10/23          3:30 p.m., CBS

Yes, Erik Ainge looks unflappable. But how will he react after Tree
Rollins bites him?

12.5 Dennis
Franchione

He's taken a lot of heat and deservedly so. But some things don't
change--the man can coach.

RELATED ARTICLE: I'll believe it when I see it.

* Minnesota, Arizona State, Oklahoma State: Let me know when you guys plan on playing some defense, and then I'll begin to believe you're more than just fodder for your leagues' elite.

* Louisville shouldn't lose another game this season. But who really believes the Cardinals can sustain the emotion and intensity they had before a crushing loss to Miami throughout the remainder of the Conference USA schedule?

* In four previous years under coach Mike Leach, Texas Tech's defense has been nothing more than a way to keep the offense fresh. This season, the Red Raiders are a respectable No. 39 in the nation in total defense. One problem: Big games remain against Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State--teams more than capable of hanging 30-plus points on Tech.

* Miami and quarterback Brock Berlin looked good in those second half comebacks in the Orange Bowl. Florida, West Virginia, Florida State and Louisville have felt the sting at one point or another. Let's see Berlin and the Canes do it when they fall behind in road ACC games against N.C. State and Virginia.--M.H.

RELATED ARTICLE: Secrets and lies.

Half-season scoop

Dwayne Jarrett nearly left use last month, Now the prized freshman wide receiver is looking more like former Trojans star Mike Williams every week. If the Trojans win it all again this season, Williams deserves an assist. He, more than anyone, convinced Jarrett to stay at USC--through daily phone calls--instead of returning home to New Jersey. And, really, what's in New Jersey for Jarrett? Rutgers?

The Wisconsin staff was concerned sophomore quarterback John Stocco would struggle early, So there were a few anxious moments for the Badgers last offseason after senior quarterback Matt Schabert quit the team. Although Stocco had won the starting job, the team thought a veteran presence would be necessary to steer the offense until things settled into place. But Stocco has eased any jitters about a shaky transition with two huge performances in road wins over Ohio State and Purdue.

California tailback J.J. Arrington nearly didn't start this season. Cal coach Jeff Tedford was so impressed with freshman tailbacks Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett in fall camp that he actually had packages to use all three until Arrington separated himself from the group late in camp and in the first two games of the season, If California had found a way to finish off Southern California, the underrated Arrington, who is seventh in the nation in rushing, would be on everyone's Heisman list.

Watch my nose grow

Utah will stumble somewhere in the last month of the season-specifically in a league road game against San Diego State or Wyoming, Even an all-star team of the Utes' remaining five opponents--UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming and BYL--couldn't beat Utah. Just deal with it: The Utes are going to a BCS bowl.

Despite its lack of marquee teams, the MAC is more balanced this season. Who in this league really scares you? The biggest nonconference victory among league members is Ohio's win against Kentucky. And, frankly, the SEC doesn't claim Kentucky off the hardwood.

Coordinator Jeff Bowden Is the reason for Florida State's struggles on offense. There's no one happier with quarterback Wyatt Sexton's performance than Bowden, who has been unfairly criticized because Chris Rix, a fifth-year senior quarterback, hasn't developed. What's the old saying? You can't make chicken salad out of chicken ... you get the gist.

Boise State's success is the byproduct of a horrible conference. The Broncos have tried to beef up their schedule; they'll play anyone. The problem: No one (read: no BCS teams) wants to come play on the blue turf, where BSU is nearly unbeatable. Oregon State agreed to a home-and-home series and beat the Broncs by two points last year in Corvallis-and then lost by 19 this year in Boise.--M.H.

HALFTIME DISH

By MATT HAYES

Despite Pittsburgh's impressive win against Boston College, it appears coach Walt Harris is closer than ever to being fired at the end of the season. Harris' agent, Bob LaMonte, blasted the Pitt administration the week before the B.C. game, saying Pitt hadn't publicly supported Harris and should let him go to pursue other opportunities if it wasn't committed to keeping him. Two things are clear: 1) LaMonte wouldn't have ripped the Pitt administration without Harris' approval--saying school officials are "delusionary" if they think Pitt is a major program that can get a major coach; 2) unless Pitt wins the Big East and plays in a BCS bowl, Harris' eight-year run will be over at the end of the season.... A week after setting school freshman records for carries and yards against Minnesota, Michigan RB Michael Hart did it again against Illinois, this time gaining 234 yards on 40 carries. Here's the twist: Without injuries to senior David Underwood (concussion) and the ineffectiveness of sophomore Jerome Jackson, Hart probably wouldn't have made a significant contribution this season. Michigan coach Lloyd Carr values experience and usually distributes playing time with that in mind. Now another heralded freshman, Max Martin, is the backup tailback. He had 67 yards in 12 carries against the Illini.... Arizona might finally have found a quarterback to direct its multiple offense. Redshirt freshman Richard Kovalcheck threw a late touchdown pass in last week's loss to Oregon and could start this week against California. Starter Kris Heavner has struggled during much of the season. The Wildcats' line hasn't helped with its spotty, protection, but Heartier continues to miss reads and make poor throws. Kovalcheck's emergence will help the Wildcats in a tough second half stretch.... Another bad sign for Florida coach Ron Zook (as if his record and a recent spat with a university fraternity aren't enough): There were more than 10,000 no-shows for last week's blowout of Middle Tennessee, originally a season-opening "practice" game that was rescheduled because of Hurricane Frances. Florida has 95 consecutive sellouts of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium--the fourth-longest streak in the nation--and continued the streak last week because, technically, all of the tickets were sold.... Utah coach Urban Meyer continues to push his team's place in a BCS world. Last week, he ripped into national television talking heads for swing the Utes couldn't compete in a major conference on a weekly basis. After dusting off North Carolina--and rolling up more yards of total offense (669) than any opponent in the Tar Heels' history--the Utes entered the week hoping to climb as high as sixth in the first BCS ratings. Such a standing would be the most significant statement made by a non-BCS team since the system began in 1998.

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