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Sporting News, The, Nov 8, 2004 by Troy Aikman

Clancy Pendergast, the Cardinals' defensive coordinator, is a big fan of the Aikman Efficiency Ratings for team offense and defense--and not just because he's a friend of mine. It's because my ratings are a much more accurate barometer of how well his defense is performing.

Through Week 7, the Arizona defense ranked 24th in the official NFL rankings, which are based solely on yards allowed per game. Clancy's unit has given up a lot of yards, but it also has produced a ton of turnovers and surrendered few Points. That's why the Cardinals, whose defense has made them surprisingly competitive in the first half of the season, were No. 2 in my defensive team ratings.

My ratings are based on a complicated formula, one I can't begin to explain here. But I can say it takes into account the most critical factors in any team's success: points, turnovers, red zone efficiency, yards per play and first-down achievement. It also introduces some logic that is not present in existing rankings.

Scoring, for instance, is credited where it belongs. In NFL stat tables, any point a team scores is credited to its offense and any point an opponent scores is charged to the defense--even when the points are scored by defense or special teams. In my ratings, that obvious contradiction is corrected by removing points on returns and safeties. A team's defense isn't faulted when its quarterback's pass is returned for a touchdown, and a team's offense isn't inflated by its scoring-happy defense.

I also think it's important to weigh a team's ability to move the chains. Third-down percentage is part of the equation, but I also factor in total first downs so that a team that gets first downs quickly isn't dragged down by a low number of third-down opportunities.

Check out the Aikman Efficiency Ratings through Week 7. Some of the differences between my ratings and the NFL's are revealing. Consider Detroit. The Lions were 32nd in offense and 30th in defense, according to the NFL, but 16th and 12th, respectively, in my ratings. Which stats are more indicative of a team that was 4-2 after seven weeks?

As you'll recall from a previous column, I've asked the NFL to consider replacing its system of ranking team offense and defense with mine. By the time the NFL competition committee meets after the season, I anticipate having a lot of support from league coaches--Clancy among them.

The Troy Aikman Show airs at 5 p.m. ET every Thursday through the Super Bowl on Sporting News Radio. Listen online at radio.sportingnews.com.

Aikman Efficiency Ratings through Week 7

OFFENSE

Aik.    NFL    Team          AER

  1       3    Colts         97.14
  2       5    Chiefs        94.90
  3       1    Vikings       93.75
  4       4    Eagles        89.94
  5      17    Chargers      88.37
  6       2    Packers       87.55
  7      12    Jets          85.94
  8      20    Steelers      85.89
  9      11    Patriots      85.39
 10       6    Rams          84.71
 11      16    Saints        79.42
 12       8    Texans        78.18
 13       7    Broncos       78.14
 14      13    Seahawks      77.64
 15      10    Cowboys       77.57
 16      32    Lions         77.33
 17      15    Jaguars       76.39
 18      21    Panthers      74.98
 19      22    Browns        74.40
 20       9    Giants        73.46
 21      19    Titans        72.62
 22      14    49ers         71.38
 23      25    Falcons       69.01
 24      28    Cardinals     67.67
 25      31    Ravens        67.16
 26      18    Raiders       66.06
 27      24    Buccaneers    65.62
 28      27    Redskins      65.13
 29      23    Bengals       63.83
 30      29    Bears         63.12
 31      26    Bills         59.92
 32      30    Dolphins      57.73

DEFENSE

  1       1    Redskins      86.77
  2      24    Cardinals     86.62
  3       2    Broncos       86.17
  4       7    Ravens        86.11
  5      12    Patriots      84.53
  6       8    Seahawks      82.12
  7       5    Bills         80.56
  8       6    Steelers      79.94
  9      20    Eagles        79.34
 10       4    Dolphins      78.97
 11      23    Bears         78.14
 12      30    Lions         77.94
 13       3    Buccaneers    76.04
 14      22    Browns        74.85
 15      15    Falcons       73.51
 16      11    Jets          73.38
 17      14    Giants        72.39
 18      31    Colts         71.92
 19       9    Chiefs        71.79
 20      17    Chargers      71.16
 21      26    Bengals       70.39
 22      29    Vikings       69.72
 23      10    Panthers      69.60
 24      18    Jaguars       66.81
 25      19    Titans        65.81
 26      21    Packers       65.57
 27      27    Texans        65.11
 28      28    Rams          63.41
 29      32    Saints        63.41
 30      16    Raiders       60.93
 31      13    49ers         59.75
 32      25    Cowboys       56.85

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Sporting News, The, Nov 8, 2004 by Troy Aikman

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