Looking like a Billion

Sporting News, The, Nov 13, 2000 by Jared Hoffman

The price of this year's free-agent class may be staggering, but a breakdown of the talent reveals a few bargains

Where is A-Rod going? That's not the million dollar question this offseason. More like the $200 million question. Baseball s offseason always features plenty of spending, but the outlay for this year's free-agent class could reach $1 billion, making the dickering of the past look like a flea market. The real question, then, may be, "How do you pronounce Sotheby's?"

General managers, who are meeting in Florida this week, are beginning to lay the groundwork for what gives every indication of being a busy offseason.

THE TOP FIVE

1 Alex Rodriguez, SS

Rodriguez should become the first 25-year-old to make $200 million without owning a dot-com. For a shortstop, his offense is unprecedented. In the past three seasons, he has hit .305 and averaged 42 homers and 122 RBIs. Rodriguez made an appearance at Shea Stadium to watch Game 4 of the World Series--an appearance that was mistaken by many for a recruiting visit with the Mets. Rodriguez has played it cool as to where he'll end up but recently said, "If I had to say something, I'd haw, to say I'm leaning toward Seattle because that's the known."

Teams interested in signing him should block out some reading time--his agent, Scott Boras, has prepared a 60-page book detailing why Rodriguez projects to be one of the greatest players in baseball history and deserves to be paid accordingly. Boras has indicated it might take a long-term contract worth $20 million a year to sign Rodriguez--or it might take more.

Best bet: Mets. They can provide the national stage some believe A-Rod is seeking, and he can provide the Mets a marketing star to rival the superstar shortstop on the other side of the city.

Contenders: Rockies, Braves, Dodgers.

Dark horses: White Sox, Yankees.

2 Manny Ramirez, RF

If you look at Ramirez's final stats from last season--.351, 38 homers, 122 RBIs--it's easy to forget he missed 42 games. The past three seasons, Ramirez has driven in 432 runs in 415 games. He has led the American League in slugging percentage the past two seasons, and he emerged as the top-ranked position player in the Elias rankings that are used to divide tree agents according to likely market value. Now he is seeking a long-term deal that eclipses the $17 million a season Carlos Delgado got from the Blue Jays.

Best bet: Yankees. If you're sick of them winning, you could be ill a bit longer. Ramirez grew tip in Manhattan, and one Yankees official has privately said money won't be an issue.

Contenders: Indians, Red Sox, Rockies.

Dark horse: Mets.

3 Mike Hampton, LHP

The Mets could have a tough time keeping their ace, who was 37-14 with a 3.02 ERA the past two seasons and wants to play on a winning team in a warm-weather National League city. Unless global warming accelerates at a rapid rate, the Mets can meet only two of his preferences. Hampton has said little about his plans, but he won't file until his agent, Jeff Moorad, talks with Mets management. It is believed Hampton is seeking Kevin Brown money--a five-year deal worth $15 million per season.

Best bet: Braves. Atlanta led the N.L. in ERA this season (4.05), but the figure was the team's highest since 1990. No one is sure how John Smoltz will do after a year off due to elbow surgery, but if the Braves sign Hampton, they'll be committing about $43 million to three players (Greg Maddux, Chipper Jones).

Contenders: Astros, Cardinals, Mets.

Dark horse: Cubs.

4 Mike Mussina, RHP

He turned down a six-year, $72 million offer from the Orioles daring the season, Although he finished with a losing record (11-15) for the first time in a full season and his 3.79 ERA was his second-highest since 1994, he is expected to get a multiyear deal paying $15 million per season. Scouts say Mussina still has his stuff and changes speeds well. His 10.8 baserunners allowed per nine innings was second only to Pedro Martinez's in the A.L. The losing record can be attributed in part to the worst run support in the league: 3.79 rims per game.

Best bet: Indians. Pitching was the Indians' biggest problem in 2000. They used 13 starters last season, and that group had a 5.13 ERA. If Mussina is added, Cleveland could have a front three of Mussina, Chuck Finley and Bartolo Colon.

Contenders: Orioles, Yankees, Braves, Mets.

Dark horses: Tigers, Cardinals, White Sox, Phillies.

5 Juan Gonzalez, RF

He was supposed to be the top attraction in the first season at Comerica Park. He has turned down an eight-year, $140 million contract, and the Tigers are probably glad he did. Gonzalez hit .326 but had only 22 homers and 67 RBIs. He played in only 115 games because of various ailments, including a herniated disk, and was a no-show for a back exam last week. All these things might have lowered his value a little, but teams still will have to pay a lot for a guy who from 1997 to '99 hit .314 and averaged 43 homers and 140 RBIs.

Best bet: Red Sox. Boston may trade Carl Everett and already has cleared $20 million by not picking up the options on pitchers Ramon Martinez, Pete Schourek, Tim Wakefield and Tom Gordon. The Red Sox are more interested in Mike Mussina, but if they don't get him, they'll try to find another bat.