Prepare for everything—and still you'll be surprised

Sporting News, The, Dec 18, 2000 by Gary Horton

As a former coach and scout, I'm expected to know my share of football; after all, I've made a living off it my entire life. One of the great lessons I've learned over the years, pertaining to the sport, is to expect the unexpected.

Before the start of each season, I spend countless hours analyzing rosters, schedules and coaching philosophies to formulate my forecasts. Generally, this time is well spent. But there are instances when order gives way to mayhem and logic is undone by luck. There's a fine line between winning and losing at the pro level, and sometimes all it takes to spoil a season--or a prediction--is a freak injury or a freakish owner.

As this unpredictable season winds to a turbulent close, I'll give you my Top 10 list of things that I never would have predicted.

1. The Vikings would lose two Pro Bowl offensive linemen, start untested Daunte Culpepper at quarterback and still have the best record in the NFC.

Physically, I knew Culpepper was the real deal, but I underestimated his ability to grasp the offense and make plays under pressure. I did pick the Vikings to make the playoffs, but, boy, was I wrong about Culpepper.

2. The Redskins, Buccaneers, Colts and Rams would be fighting for playoff berths in mid-December. Common themes in Washington and Tampa have been infighting and inconsistency, and Indianapolis and St. Louis have been soft on defense. Not even Dionne Warwick's pals could have called this one back in August.

3. Keyshawn Johnson would have little impact for Tampa Bay. When evaluating receivers, one always should consider who's throwing them the ball. If Johnson were a vertical threat, I could see why Shaun King wouldn't be a match. But Johnson's lack of production doesn't make sense because his possession-type style is a perfect fit for an accurate, underneath passer such as King. It's back to the old drawing board for offensive coordinator Les Steckel this offseason.

4. Rich Gannon would be the front-runner for league MVP. Not since the days of Phil Simms have we seen a quarterback become an extension of his coach as Gannon has this season. The biggest key to the Raiders' success has been the fiery, yet respectful, chemistry between Gannon and Jon Gruden. No one wants to "just win, baby" like these two competitors.

5. The Eagles would lose running back Duce Staley in Week 5 and still make the playoffs. This is a credit to Andy Reid and his system. As a coach, you have to know the limitations of your talent pool and make adjustments accordingly, and this guy has pulled it off. And, speaking of extensions of a coach, how about quarterback Donovan McNabb, who emerged as the team's leading rusher. The player-coach age disparity in Oakland is only 28 months. Reid has 17 years on his pupil.

6. Ground control would take flight in Kansas City. The team's personnel dictated that Gunther Cunningham make some adjustments, but it has gotten out of control. Let me guess, Mouse Davis will be brought in next season to implement the run-and-shoot. By having his team throw more to be less predictable, Cunningham may have tossed away his chance at remaining as the Chiefs' coach.

7. The Broncos would get 1,000 yards rushing from someone other than Terrell Davis or Olandis Gary. If offensive line coach Alex Gibbs follows through on his speculated retirement at season's end, owner Pat Bowlen should do something to honor him. Rookie Mike Anderson is a tough runner, but Gibbs' unit has made him look like the second coming of Earl Campbell.

8. Quarterback Jay Fiedler and running back Lamar Smith would lead the Dolphins to first place in the AFC East. Forget last week's soggy loss to the Buccaneers. Fiedler, the former Ivy Leaguer, and Smith, a Saints reject, have given this franchise something it lacked even in the Marino years: offensive balance. These are perhaps the two most underrated free-agent acquisitions of the year.

9. Tiki Barber, not Ron Dayne, would carry the Giants' running game. Forget the meteorological references; the bottom line is that Barber is more effective. His ability to create something out of nothing behind an aging offensive line is making a difference down the stretch.

10. Jeff Garcia would become the 49ers' third Pro Bowl quarterback in less than a decade. Garcia is hands down the league's most improved player. Brett Favre once told me that he wasn't truly comfortable in the West Coast offense until his fourth season. It took the homegrown talent half that time. San Francisco's coaching staff raved about Garcia's development after offseason passing camps. I should have listened.

Green Bay MLB Bernardo Harris is one of the league's underrated tough guys. He has been a mainstay in the middle for the Packers the past four years because he enjoys hitting people. He's the type of player who brings his lunch pail to work and gives an honest day's effort.

This week, he would be smart to pack extra sandwiches because he'll be working overtime.

Without defensive tackles Santana Dotson and Steve Warren, who are out for the remainder of the year with quadriceps injuries, the Packers will be extremely thin--not to mention small--along the defensive line.