Picking and choosing: staring at a smorgasbord of 28 bowl games can be daunting, so sink your teeth into these storylines and matchups first

Sporting News, The, Dec 22, 2003 by Tom Dienhart

Best clash of offense vs. defense Fiesta Bowl, Kansas State vs. Ohio State

Typically when a great offense (Kansas State) meets a terrific defense (Ohio State), the great defense prevails. But don't write off the Wildcats that quickly.

With its quick-strike attack, K-State dismantled Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. In a flash, running back Darren Sproles can squirt through a seam and dash to the goal line. Senior quarterback Ell Roberson, once known only for his running ability, now is a dual threat. He has an underrated arm, displaying an ability to thread passes through tight holes. Roberson's favorite target is James Terry, who at 6-5 is a matchup problem for defensive backs.

For Kansas State to succeed against Ohio State, it must stick with the run, even if the sledding is tough early. It may be wise to run Sproles right at the Buckeyes to neutralize their speed. Once respect is gained, Roberson can strike with play-action--Ohio State was vulnerable to downfield passes in losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. But K-State's best weapon may be Roberson's legs. The Buckeyes haven't faced a quarterback with his scrambling ability.

Ohio State's defense ranks ninth nationally, yielding just 290 yards per game, and is No. 1 against the run. The Buckeyes have perhaps the best defensive line in the nation; it is led by end Will Smith, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. The unit is effective because of a rotation that goes eight deep. The back seven has standouts in cornerback Chris Gamble and linebacker A.J. Hawk. With talent such as that, coordinator Mark Dantonio doesn't have to gamble much out of the team's 4-3 alignment.

Though Roberson has improved as a passer, Ohio State will make stuffing the run job No. 1, especially on first downs. If the Wildcats are forced into undesirable down-and-distance situations, they will become predictable.

Making that happen is easier said than done.

Best chances for an upset

1 Capital One: Purdue over Georgia. The Boilers, like the Dawgs, can sling some "D" but are far more inventive on offense. First to 14 wins.

2 Insight.com: California over Virginia Tech. The Bears are thrilled to be in this game. The Hokies? Uh, no.

3 Alamo: Michigan State over Nebraska. Sparty can throw but not run; the Huskers can run but not throw. Late in a a close one, it's better to be able to throw.

4 Fort Worth: TCU over Boise State. The Broncos are the better team, but this isn't exactly a neutral site, now is it?

5 Sugar: LSU over Oklahoma. There's no telling whether the Sooners will be able to get themselves off the deck emotionally.--S.G.

Best non-BCS bowl Fort Worth Bowl, TCU vs. Boise State

These teams toil in the shadows of the big boys, with Boise State playing in the Western Athletic Conference and TCU in Conference USA. But each has been among the best non-BCS teams recently; Boise State is 32-6 in the last three years, and TCU is 21-3 in the last two. So, look at this game as a de facto non-BCS title game.

Boise State has the advantage on offense. The Broncos' aerial show has few peers. The triggerman is Ryan Dinwiddie, whose 4,031 passing yards rank third nationally. David Mikell provides oomph on the ground, with 1,041 rushing yards this season.

TCU has had injuries at quarterback, but that hasn't slowed the Horned Frogs, who effectively run the ball with a variety of formations and plays. Running back Robert Merrill has gained 1,081 yards, the third-highest total among freshmen this season.

Though the Broncos are strong against the run, the defensive edge goes to the Horned Frogs, who get things done with a funky 4-2-5 set that emphasizes speed and quickness. The linchpin is end Bo Schobel, who has 26 tackles for loss and 16 sacks. Linebacker Martin Patterson and safety Jeremy Modkins also fly to the ball.

Both teams have an ace on special teams. TCU kicker Nick Browne ranks second in the nation with 27 field goals, and Broncos return man Tim "Little Buddy" Gilligan is a big play waiting to happen.

It's a good thing TCU turned down a bid to the GMAC Bowl, or this matchup wouldn't have happened.

Best chances for a blowout

1 Rose: Southern California over Michigan. The extra time to prepare gives the best-coached team in the land a huge advantage.

2 GMAC: Miami (Ohio) over Louisville. The RedHawks' average margin of victory during their 12-game winning streak is 27.3 points.

3 Tangerine: N.C. State over Kansas. The Jayhawks will move the ball and score in the passing game, but the Wolfpack will pass and run all they want.

4 Hawaii: Hawaii over Houston. The good news for the Cougars' program is the trip to paradise. The bad news is the defense is coming, too.

5 Holiday: Texas over Washington State. These teams went in different directions in November.--S.G.

Best matchup of 2004 breakout teams Outback Bowl, Iowa vs. Florida.

Before the season, few thought these teams would be playing on New Year's Day. Iowa, after all, had many key losses--including Heisman Trophy runner-up quarterback Brad Banks and four starting offensive linemen--from the team that shared the Big Ten title in 2002. The Hawkeyes were a consensus middle-of-the-pack Big Ten pick.