"When senioritis sets in, the prognosis is not good

Sporting News, The, Dec 28, 1998 by Mike DeCourcy

If you are among the many trying to determine how teams so rich in seniors, such as Xavier and Massachusetts, struggle to meet expectations, you might want to consider this theory: It's partly because they're so rich in seniors.

Seniors almost invariably know the system, how to prepare and how hard they must play to succeed, but senioritis is a more common malady in basketball than many recognize.

A lot of guys who've been playing for no pay for four years begin wondering where they might fit into the NBA and what they must do to get there. And if they're not thinking about it, somebody close to them is likely to bring up the subject.

"I think that's something that at our level, the major college programs, that's one of the real commonalities that all the coaches share," UCLA coach Steve Lavin says. "You have to work on convincing your players, getting your players to buy into the fact that the more success teams have collectively, the more success the players will have."

Xavier coach Skip Prosser does not believe this is the problem for his veteran team, specifically guard Gary Lumpkin, whose 3-point shooting has dropped well below the Mendoza line.

"I don't think he's necessarily thinking too much about that," Prosser says. "It's a natural tendency for seniors to be somewhat apprehensive about the future, because every college senior in America is.

"Gary's continued to work hard. It's not like he's quit working. It's going to have to manifest itself in the game."

The Atlantic 10 is a senior league but has struggled to a sub.-500 non-conference record, with UMass its most obvious underachiever. The Minutemen have seniors Lari Ketner and Charlton Clarke but dropped five of their first seven. Xavier lost games to San Francisco and Toledo, not what many expected from a preseason top 20 team.

"Our whole thing has been interdependence," Prosser says. "They want to play well because their buddies are counting on them."

One of the game's freshest myths is that it's better to recruit players who aren't so good that they'll be leaving early for the NBA, disrupting a team's planning.

In fact, the answer for most elite programs is to overrecruit on an annual basis. Those that once tried not to overstock positions now collect as many gifted players as possible, which is why next season's Cincinnati, Duke and Kentucky teams are scheduled to have 10 elite centers among them. Only two will be seniors.

In the past three years, only nine of 30 starters in the NCAA championship game were seniors. That's 1.5 per team. The numbers are the same if you stretch that to include the entire Final Four.

It is not quite to the point where "senior leadership" falls into the same oxymoron category as "military intelligence" and "jumbo shrimp," but there are instances.

Two teams I covered, Pittsburgh of 1990-91 and Memphis of 1995-96, had enough talent to make serious dents in the NCAA Tournament but won one game between them. Players on both teams were consumed with how, or if, they were being viewed by scouts.

In fact, the scouts saw what was happening and none of the six seniors on those squads ended up being selected. When NBA scouting director Marry Blake checked out Memphis' Michael Wilson and Mingo Johnson in February 1996, he said both were likely to earn invitations to the league's predraft camp in Chicago. After the Tigers became first-round upset victims against Drexel, neither heard from Blake.

"Every kid who's pretty good thinks he can play in The League," says South Florida coach Seth Greenberg, whose brother Brad is a former NBA general manager. "That can kill a team, because they think The League is looking for stats. And the truth is, they're looking for guys who win, know how to play and are low maintenance."

Seniors who are fringe pros or unlikely pros are most vulnerable to suggestions from friends and family members about what they might need to accomplish to catch the NBA's attention.

Thus, one of the hardest messages to deliver to players--but perhaps the most valuable a coach can teach--is that NBA teams draft players who succeed in the NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky's Jeff Sheppard, last year's Final Four MVP, is a notable exception, but Sheppard damaged his stock by choosing not to attend the Chicago camp so he could take a honeymoon trip.

Utah center Michael Doleac climbed into the top half of the first round by shooting and powering his team into last season's title game. UCLA center George Zidek (1995), Mississippi State forward Dontae' Jones (1996) and North Carolina center Serge Zwikker (1997) also helped themselves in the NCAA Tournament.

Big Jonn Thomas surely played himself into the first round by leading Minnesota to the 1997 Final Four. "Without a doubt," Gophers coach Clem Haskins says. "John was not a big-time recruit, but he turned it around because he worked so hard as a player. He played well against the so-called elite players in the country."

Haskins maintains he has never had a problem with senior players on a salary drive but figures "it probably happens for everybody from time to time. They start thinking about the cellular phones, the cars, the material things instead of playing for the university."