Don't write off Solich yet

Sporting News, The, Dec 30, 2002 by Tom Dienhart

The holiday season means bowls and more bowls in college football but it also is a time of coaching changes. Among the bigger moves so far: John L. Smith for Bobby Williams at Michigan State; Karl Dorrell for Bob Toledo at UCLA; Dennis Franchione for R.C. Slocum at Texas A&M; Mike Price for Franchione at Alabama.

But perhaps the biggest coaching news is that Nebraska won't replace Frank Solich after the Cornhuskers stumbled through a 7-6 season that will end in the Independence Bowl against Mississippi. It was Nebraska's worst regular season since the program went 3-6-1 in 1961 under some guy named Bill Jennings.

Solich was "urged" to alter his staff. In addition to relinquishing his play-calling duties, Solich dismissed defensive coordinator Craig Bohl, secondary coach George Darlington and rush ends coach Nelson Barnes, But some didn't think Nebraska's brass went far enough and suggested Solich should have been shown the door.

But I think Nebraska is doing the correct thing by giving Solich more time. Look at the numbers: Solich's record in five seasons is 49-15, a winning percentage of .766. Predecessor Tom Osborne, the standard by which Solich is measured, posted a 46-13-2 record in his first five years, a winning percentage of .770. Those figures look pretty similar to me.

That isn't the only tidbit that might surprise all those folks wearing blindfolds and swinging at Solich pinatas in their basements. Let's look deeper at Solich's and Osborne's first five years at the school.

* National titles. Still fuming that Solich inherited a program from Osborne that won national championships in 1994 and '95 and shared the '97 title but has yet to win another? Think about this: When Bob Devaney gave way to Osborne, Nebraska was in just as good of shape. Devaney's Huskers won national titles in 1970 and '71, and his 1972 team finished No. 4 in the nation. How many national titles did Osborne win in his first five years? The same number as Solich: zero.

In fact, Solich has one-upped Osborne by at least playing for a title in his first five years, guiding the Cornhuskers to the brink last season. Osborne didn't advance Nebraska to a "national title game" until 1983, 11 years into his tenure.

Take a look at those title games. Solich's 2001 team was a heavy underdog to Miami in the Rose Bowl. Conversely, Osborne's 1983 team was ranked No. 1 all season and was favored to beat the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl. But Nebraska choked, losing 31-30 when a potential game-winning 2-point conversion was stopped. Osborne didn't get Nebraska back in line to win it all until 1993, when it lost to Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

* Bowls. Folks harp on Solich's 2-2 bowl record, but his losses were to a No. 5-ranked team (Arizona) and a No. 1-ranked team (Miami). What about Osborne? A poor bowl record was the dirty little secret of his tenure. He was 8-13 in his first 21 bowl trips. A career-ending, four-bowl winning streak was a salve, improving his final record to 12-13. Big deal.

Still not ready to put down that Solich voodoo doll? I'll concede that Nebraska has lost steam under Solich. But this is a complex issue that goes beyond the black and white of winning national titles and bowls. Take a look:

* Eras. Osborne took over in a much different time than Solich. In the early 1970s, Osborne wasn't encumbered by scholarship limitations. If he wanted to have more than 100 players on scholarship, he could, and that was routine for mega-programs such as Nebraska. The hoarding of talent made for an unlevel playing field. Solich is limited to 85 scholarships, which makes it difficult for a team to be dominant every year. An injury here, a player defection there, and a coach can find himself lacking depth at several positions. Suddenly; games with Oklahoma State become scary.

* Conference competition. The Big 12 has been one of the nation's strongest leagues since its inception in 1996. Adding games against Texas and Texas A&M to a schedule that already featured the former Big Eight powers Colorado and Oklahoma made winning the Big 12 a cumbersome task, but Osborne competed in the conference just two years.

Then there's the league championship game. Osborne got two cracks at it and finished 1-1, but his defeat was monumental. In fact, No. 3-ranked Nebraska's 37-27 loss to unranked Texas in the 1996 title game was one of the biggest upsets in recent memory, and it cost the Huskers a shot at another national title. FYI: Solich is 1-0 in Big 12 title games.

* Power failure. Osborne caught a break at the end of his career in that many of the Big Eight/Big 12 powers struggled during Nebraska's national title run from 1994-97. Go back and compare Texas (30-18-1) and Oklahoma (18-27-1) then to what they are now. And since then, the Big 12 has seen teams such as Iowa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State rise. Osborne never faced that much competition.

Of course, no amount of proof will quell some detractors of Solich, who will be auditioning for his job before a new athletics director. So, if the Huskers--who return many key veterans and promising youngsters but must settle the quarterback issue--fail to win the Big 12 North next season, it will be time for a change. Until then, back off Solich.