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It's a question of talent, not timidity

Sporting News, The, Feb 1, 1999 by Bill Walsh

Like most everyone else, I think the Broncos will defeat the Falcons in Super Bowl 33. But not necessarily for the reasons you might think.

Although some people like to cite the Broncos' decided edge in playoff experience as being a pivotal factor, I just don't think that particular issue will be that important. Sometimes the team with the least amount of playoff experience is the hungrier team, the more desperate team. This year, that's the Falcons. The Atlanta franchise has historically been a losing one, and many of the current Falcons may think this will be the only Super Bowl they'll ever play in. After getting to the Super Bowl the past two years, no Bronco can be thinking that way.

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We also can't assume that the Falcons will "crack" under the pressure of a Super Bowl just because they haven't been there before. Yes, it is the biggest game there is, and first-time teams have cracked in big games before. But veteran teams with lots of playoff experience have lost their poise in big games, too. My 1987 49ers team had the best record (13-2) and scored the most points of any team in the league, yet we lost our first playoff game--at home, no less--to a Minnesota team that won five fewer regular-season games and had to play the week before. But we lost our poise and the game.

So, why don't I just pick the Falcons to win? Because the Broncos have better players at almost every position. Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson are two of the top three or four running backs in football, and the game ultimately may be decided by which team tackles best in the open field. Still, if Davis and Anderson cancel each other out, it will come down to a matchup of passing games. And in John Elway vs. Chris Chandler, I have to take Elway. And that's no slight to Chandler, who has had a terrific season and become one of the top quarterbacks in the league. Yes, Elway has a ton more playoff experience than Chandler, but he also has more talent.

The Falcons' best bet is to keep the game close and kill the clock behind Anderson. He can wear down a defense, especially late when he is strong and defenders aren't. But Atlanta must play well enough early to make the fourth quarter meaningful.

49ers general manager Bill Walsh is an exclusive NFL analyst for THE SPORTING NEWS this season. E-mail him at walsh@sportingnews.com and then look for his weekly e-mailbag and picks at sportingnews.com. Chat with Walsh every other Wednesday on AOL (keyword: LIVE).

It's a question of talent, not timidity

Sporting News, The, Feb 1, 1999 by Bill Walsh

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