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Finding their own places in the sun

Sporting News, The, Feb 15, 1999 by Peter Schmuck

Intrigue will be heavy in the land of palm trees and cactus as clubs strive to find ways to dethrone the Yankees and individuals attempt to steal attention from Mark McGwire--and that's just for starters

All right, baseball fans, here's a little advice on the eve of spring training: You might want to guard against a letdown.

Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs last year. How do you top that? The Yankees won 125 games, which will go down in your personal history book as one of the happiest seasons of all time or keep you in a perpetual state of nausea until they finally fall off their high horse.

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The 1998 season was the most exciting year of the decade--some say it was the best season ever--which means there's the likelihood the encore isn't exactly going to be Born to Run in baseball cleats.

Here's what you can look forward to: The Yankees will knock everyone into the cheap seats again, but the home run race won't be half as engaging as it was when McGwire and Sammy Sosa carried us through a euphoric summer.

Although that warm, fuzzy feeling barely has had lime to wear off, the equipment vans are rumbling toward sunny. Florida and Arizona. Soon to follow will be truckloads of questions that need answering and personnel decisions that need to be made.

If lowered expectations for '99 can be viewed as unsettling news, there's plenty of good news, too. Davey Johnson is back, which means there will be no shortage of controversy in the normally docile Dodgers camp. Johnson figures to give that team a heart transplant in a hurry.

McGwire is back, of course, and he'll be the focus of a lot of attention this spring, but he hit enough home runs last year to hold everyone over into the new millennium. Look for someone else to steal the home run spotlight this season.

History will happen again in the majors, but not in the same dynamic fashion. There will be a series of notable milestones, but they will be largely cumulative, which means they won't provide the adrenaline rush that came with every record-threatening at-bat by McGwire and Sosa.

Padres outfielder Tony Gwynn should be the first of three future Hall of Famers to reach the 3,000-hit plateau, probably in mid-June. Devil Rays third baseman Wade Boggs could be right behind him, followed a couple of months later by Orioles third baseman Cal Ripken, who also is dosing in on his 400th career home run.

A lot has happened since the Yankees completed their amazing season with a World Series sweep of San Diego--from the explosion at the top of baseball's salary structure to the dismantling of the defending National League champion Padres. There will be more intrigue in the spring camps, with perhaps the most riveting plot involving Cy Young Award winner Roger Clemens.

Will the Rocket take off?

Clemens wants to leave Toronto. No, he's willing to stay. He won't play for the Astros under any circumstances. Well, on second thought, maybe he will. It was the soap opera of the offseason.

My advice to Blue Jays general manager Gord Ash: Keep Clemens and see where you are in July. The division title may be out of the question, but the Jays--with Clemens on hand--could be a wild-card contender. If not, Toronto can deal him to a contender by the Wading deadline.

There's no reason to believe Ash will take my suggestion, though.

Houston still wants Clemens. That winter meetings spat (involving Houston G.M. Gerry Hunsicker and Clemens' representatives) aside, an Astros-Clemens deal is one that can--and probably will--be made in March.

McGwire won't be No. 1

McGwire raised the home run bar so high it would be ridiculous to expect him to challenge his record in 1999, but that won't be enough to protect him from unrealistic expectations. Even McGwire's manager, Tony La Russa, has said he is good enough to hit 75 homers in '99. Well, Big Mac is good enough, but it isn't going to happen--and it isn't fair to frame his season in such outlandish terms.

Becoming the first player to hit 50 or more home runs in four consecutive seasons would be an amazing accomplishment for McGwire this year, but don't expect anyone to look at it that way.

The big question of the spring for McGwire: How many times will he hear, "Can you hit 71?" before he snaps?

McGwire can handle the pressure just fine, but he won't be leading the way in the home run race this season. It will be Albert Belle, playing his first year in cozy Camden Yards.

Davey's back--and here's why

He has worn out his welcome everywhere he has been, so why does Davey Johnson keep landing in clover?

It's the wins, stupid.

Johnson has never finished worse than second in any full season as a major league manager. He has reached the playoffs in short order with each of the three clubs he has managed. He has a way of getting the most out of every player. So, this should be a cakewalk with the Dodgers. He's going to have the biggest payroll, the game's highest-paid player (pitcher Kevin Brown) and a relatively easy ride through the N.L. West--especially now that the Padres have downsized their way out of contention.

Finding their own places in the sun

Sporting News, The, Feb 15, 1999 by Peter Schmuck

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