Changes: stunning trades and unprecedented free-agent movement have shifted the landscape and affected the balance of power

Sporting News, The, Feb 16, 2004 by Ken Rosenthal

An offseason of unprecedented player movement has created the most jarring spring training picture in recent memory. It's difficult to say which single change is the most stunning--Curt Schilling joining the Red Sox, Kevin Brown the Yankees, Ivan Rodriguez the Tigers--but suffice to say, fantasy baseball has become reality.

Outlandish trade concoctions, once the exclusive province of fantasy players and talk-show callers, suddenly are the norm for real-life general managers. A record number of free agents has created the equivalent of a fantasy auction. Any player can be moved at any time, unless that player is the king of contracts. Alex Rodriguez ... or the king of incompetents, Roger Cedeno.

The shifting landscape can be traced to such factors as the lingering effects of nearly three years of a sluggish national economy, increased revenue sharing, changing ownerships and more efficient payroll management. Teams trying to cut back on unproductive players, many of whom are eligible for major raises through salary arbitration, cut loose 58 this offseason, flooding an already crowded market that opened with 210 free agents.

The game's latest labor agreement, which took effect in 2002, not only redirects money from high-revenue to low-revenue clubs but also includes a luxury tax that inhibits big spenders and a debt-ratio rule that forces all clubs to exercise restraint. Seven of last season's top 10 payroll teams--the Mets, Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Giants and Diamondbacks--are either in holding patterns or downsizing.

The rich still get richer, as evidenced by the offseason activity of the Red Sox and Yankees, but the climate of change can be felt even at the top. Previously dormant teams such as the Angels and Astros underwent dramatic transformations; other clubs have made significant changes with less fanfare.

Red Sox get a co-ace ... and a closer

Funny how a team that refused to employ a traditional closer last season would enter the market and sign one to a four-year, $25.5 million contract. Keith Foulke, however, fits the definition of a "relief ace" as outlined by Red Sox executive--and noted sabermetrician--Bill James.

New Red Sox manager Terry Francona can pitch Foulke for more innings and in more critical situations than the average closer. Nearly a quarter of his 2003 saves for the A's--10 of 43--were gained by getting four or more outs. Two concerns: Foulke allowed twice as many fly balls as ground balls last season, the worst ratio of his career; and it's difficult to imagine him producing four straight quality seasons in the Boston crucible.

The Sox's trade for Schilling was a steal, with the team giving up little of consequence and getting Schilling under contract through 2006--an important consideration, with Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe eligible to become free agents after this season.

Schilling, 37, posted the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the National League last year, even as he fumed about the QuesTec strike zone and spent eight weeks on the disabled list with an appendectomy and broken hand.

Preparation freak that he is, Schilling should have little difficulty adjusting to a different league and a new home park. Fenway has a reputation for being a difficult pitchers venue, but according to STATS Inc., it was actually 17 percent easier to score runs and hit homers in Bank One Ballpark, Schilling's Arizona home, last season.

Angels owner Moreno arrives

No owner made a bigger offseason splash than Arturo Moreno, who turned the Angels into A.L. West favorites by signing four free agents--pitchers Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar and outfielders Vladimir Guerrero and Jose Guillen--for $145.75 million combined.

In the short term, at least, the Moreno makeover should prove successful; the Angels gain the added benefit of moving Darin Erstad and Tim Salmon to less physically demanding positions. Erstad will shift from center field to first base and Salmon from right field to DH. Guerrero's back and Colon's weight are long-term concerns, but Guerrero stands a better chance of staying healthy on the natural grass of Angel Stadium than he did on the artificial turf in Montreal.

The Angels, who won the 2002 World Series with a $62 million payroll, figure to top $100 million this season. Manager Mike Scioscia, signed through 2007, maintains an even-keel demeanor that will serve the team well as expectations increase. Both Scioscia and first base coach Alfredo Griffin speak Spanish, which should ease the transition for the Latin American newcomers.

Yankees get stronger

It might be hard to believe after the subtraction of Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and David Wells, but the Yankees' staff--from one through 12---could be even better than last year's group, which posted the American League's third-best ERA.

The Yankees again will play below-average defense. Their infield will be especially porous without injured third baseman Aaron Boone, and their outfield won't be much better. But their pitchers ranked second in strikeouts per nine innings last season, minimizing the chances for their fielders to make mistakes, and they ranked first in fewest walks per nine innings and second in fewest homers per nine innings, minimizing the impact of misplays that could have occurred.