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You snooze past these guys, you lose: these sleepers won't get many zzzs in the next 10 months

Sporting News, The, Feb 18, 2005 by Lee Spencer

What distinguishes the top 10 finishers in the points standings from the next five or 10? Money? Personnel? The formula for success actually is a combination of the two.

But there's another, elusive element. You can't buy it, no matter how big your bank account, and you can't get it by working harder or longer.

Racing luck is the ultimate decision-maker.

No top 40 driver was fortunate enough to finish every race last season. Champion Kurt Busch, who beat runner-up Jimmie Johnson by eight points, didn't finish three races. Johnson failed to finish seven. If he had been able to dodge one more accident, finish just one more race ...

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There's no way to predict racing luck, but take a look at last season's second 10. An analysis of those drivers reveals three sleepers who need only a break or two along the way to be in the thick of it when the Chase for the NASCAR Nextel Cup begins in September.

Jeff Burton. Remember his glory years at Roush Racing, 1997 to 2000, when J.B. didn't finish out of the top five in points? He was smooth. He was consistent. And he was a contender. Burton won 15 races during that four-year stretch and two more in 2001.

He is a thinking-man's racer and one of a dying breed who still understands the mechanics of his car. It wasn't fate that brought Burton to Richard Childress Racing and crew chief Kevin Hamlin. This was the late Dale Earnhardt's hope for filling his seat when he retired.

Burton could be instrumental in resurrecting RCR.

Greg Biffle. He's one of the most talented racers in Cup, but he didn't start in the series on equal footing with some Roush teammates. If Biffle's No. 16 had been a clone of, say, the Nos. 6 (Mark Martin), 17 (Matt Kenseth) or 97 (Busch), Biffle would have been running up front sooner rather than struggling with a team that was trying to make the jump from the Busch Series to major league racing.

He disrupted the Dale Earnhardt Inc. dominance at Daytona by winning the July race there as a rookie in 2003, then posted 2004 victories at Michigan and Homestead. Now that Roush Racing is integrating its programs, the No. 16 is bound to be stronger in 2005.

Couple that with Biffle concentrating more on Cup, and he will be a more consistent contender.

Joe Nemechek. His dominant victory from the pole at Kansas Speedway last fall showed that Nemechek's No. 01 team had hit on something. One week earlier, Nemechek won the pole at Talladega, and the team posted six top 10s in the Chase.

Much of the credit must go to crew chief Ryan Pemberton. Certainly, Nemechek always has had the talent.

Given the chemistry he has developed with Pemberton and a beefed-up engineering staff, Front Row Joe not only will start up front, he will stay there.

speed reads

Can we go through one week without every driver over 30 being asked about retirement? Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace are retiring at the end of the season, and Terry Labonte is cutting back, so there are plenty of memories to recall. That makes it even sillier to badger Jeff Gordon about when he's going to retire.

The battle of the breweries is intensifying. Bill Elliott is reviving his championship Coors paint scheme in Saturdays Budweiser Shootout, increasing Coors' ante by putting two of its brands in Anheuser-Busch's event. Elliott is certain to get some face time because of his popularity, but how much will be determined by his performance.

The niche components are becoming more important for teams. For instance, Evernham Motorsports has hired a former Goodyear engineer to bring the organization up to speed on new tires. As NASCAR makes the transition to the car of the future, teams will hire more specialists to get an edge.

Four of the first eight Cup races are west of the Mississippi, and four are in the Southeast. Has anyone considered how teams are supposed to keep up on fabrication ... and sleep?

INSIDE DISH

Rumblings in the garage have Toyota testing the Busch Series waters next season before jumping to Cup in 2007, the first year all teams could be running NASCAR's new engines. Those engines will be constructed on common platforms but still will maintain manufacturer identities. Toyota's possible entry into the Busch Series also might accelerate the learning curve for Honda, which could be racing in the truck series as early as 2006. The Big Three U.S. automakers have expressed concern that if Toyota and Honda are given the specifications of this new engine now, the Nextel Cup Series soon could resemble the IndyCar series, meaning Detroit would be severely outspent and unable to compete. * Thirty-nine teams, 73 cars--and that was just at Las Vegas. When the testing continued at California, 44 Nextel Cup and 18 Busch teams battled winds that gusted to more than 40 mph "The wind's so strong it's just pushing the cars," said Kasey Kahne, who drove two of the 79 cars that tested at California. "You enter the corner, and the left front will be turning. The next thing you know, you feel a gust of wind, and it won't turn. It's been a tough test battling the wind and the racetrack." Several teams left the test early, including Bale Earnhardt Jr.'s No. 8 after blowing an engine. Mark Martin, who called conditions the windiest he has encountered, scraped the wall during the two-day test, as did Jeff Burton and Bobby Labonte. * How are the teams compensating for the loss of downforce caused by the shorter spoilers? "On a normal weekend, we'll make a change (increase) of 50 pounds in the springs," defending Cup champion Kurt Busch says. "Now we're changing 100, 150 pounds just to get out of the box to try something different." Although teams have a baseline for the California race, which is February 27, the elimination of Happy Hour will make it difficult for some to adapt. The cars could change dramatically under race conditions. * Location, location, location. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has sold out its 125,000 seats and will add about 16,000 more for the March 13 race. Sales at California Speedway have not been nearly as good. Blame California's new February race date and the track's proximity to Las Vegas. Given the choice of amenities in Vegas and Fontana, choosing which race to attend is not a tough decision for fans. Last year, when California had two races for the first time, the first race was May 2. * Cup teams had to roll through template inspection at Las Vegas to receive a voucher to continue testing at California. In the offseason, NASCAR takes its templates to race shops for early comparisons, but in the past teams would go early to Rockingham, previously the second race of the season, to check for accuracy. "We want the crews to know how we're applying the templates and what the procedures are," NASCAR inspector John Drager says. "This gives teams the opportunity to see the entire template package." Changes include Dodge's 14 identity templates, all spoiler templates because spoiler heights have been decreased an inch to 4.5 inches and the Chevrolet taillight template. * NASCAR has selected tour directors for its Canada and Mexico series. Richard Buck, a former team manager in Winston Cup and CART, will oversee the Canadian operation. Former driver and TV commentator Chad Little will manage the Mexico series.

You snooze past these guys, you lose: these sleepers won't get many zzzs in the next 10 months

Sporting News, The, Feb 18, 2005 by Lee Spencer

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