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Sporting News, The, Feb 22, 1999 by Mike DeCourcy

California coach Ben Braun is not lobbying for his Bears, at least not overtly. When discussing what qualifies any team for inclusion in the NCAA Tournament, he slips in a justifiably self-serving reference to "playing well against the North Carolinas" as a factor in being selected, but mostly admits these matters will be decided on the court.

"That's as it should be," says Braun, whose team not only beat the Tar Heels, but last week added UCLA to its victims list. "The teams that play well, play consistently are going to have the opportunity."

The process followed by the NCAA selection committee is not as secret as it once was; it is demystified as the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) standings become more easily accessed in print or on the Internet.

Projections of the NCAA Tournament field begin for some publications before the college season reaches its midpoint. The problem with so many of these is placing too much weight on the RPI standings. The folks who religiously cite the RPI can tell you no team lower than 54th made the tournament last season but can't tell you who will end up in that spot this time, only who is there now.

What the February RPI disguises, the March RPI reveals. A team with a credible rating on Valentine's Day may be something of a computer fraud. A quality team may be buried in the standings because of a soft early schedule The longer a team plays, though, the more likely its true nature will become obvious.

To know whether a team is making itself NCAA-worthy, it's important to examine what sort of teams it has beaten--and to whom that team has lost.

NCAA teams have a feel to them that the RPI wonks understate. Wake Forest at 15-13 last year was not an NCAA team despite its No. 37 RPI because the Demon Deacons had only 15 wins at the close of the regular season and lost by 19 to Clemson in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

An NCAA team does not win only 15 games. No at-large team has ever made it with fewer than 16. An NCAA team does not get humiliated when everyone knows a bid is at stake.

This is something to remember as you read predictions and maybe start feeling your team is safe because it has an RPI in the 30s. Some of these teams have a quality win or two, some do not, but each is less secure in its NCAA candidacy than its RPI number suggests:

Mississippi, RPI 28. The Rebels lost three times to teams outside the top 100 and are hanging a lot of their reputation on a season sweep of Arkansas that seems to get less impressive each time the Razorbacks play.

The SEC West is underwhelming, and its one extraordinary team destroyed the Rebels both times they played. Nor have they played their best in the past month, losing four of 10 in one stretch.

Ole Miss has gone 8-5 against the top 100, but the Rebels close with games against Alabama and LSU that cannot be bungled.

Florida State, RPI 35. Only a couple of weeks back, the Seminoles were on the fringe of the RPI top 20, but that was a statistical anomaly. Not for one moment has FSU looked like a team that belonged in the tournament, not with a 6-11 record against the top 100 and losses to such teams as Princeton and Butler.

Because the Seminoles played a quality schedule, their RPI ranking was inflated beyond the true measure of the team. As the losses began to accumulate in ACC play, Florida State dropped into the 30s and seemed certain to continue falling.

The final week includes a trip to NC State and a home game against Maryland. A sweep and maybe a first-round win at the ACC Tournament would be worth a look, but don't count on either.

TCU, RPI 37. Fading from the AP poll to the middle of the pack in the nation's 10th-rated league is no way to assure a busy mid-March. The Horned Frogs were 7-6 against top 100 teams, which kept them from being entirely dismissed, but were only .500 over the most recent 10 games.

They have a star player in forward Lee Nailon, which can be a tiebreaker. Given the weakness of the WAC, and especially the Mountain Division, they'll need to storm through a road game at UNLV and then home games against Rice and Tulsa to be taken seriously in early March.

Northwestern, RPI 38. The possibility of the Big Ten becoming the first league to place eight teams in the field was damaged when the Wildcats fell to Wisconsin and Indiana in four days.

As charming as it would be for them to become the last major-conference school to earn an NCAA invitation so soon after winning just 19 games in a three-year stretch, the Wildcats still have only their wins against Purdue and Minnesota to counter losses to Maine and Seton Hall.

With a game Saturday at Ohio State to be followed by a trip to Iowa, it will be tough for center Evan Eschmeyer to avoid joining Nailon as the marquee players of the NIT

UAB, RPI 41. When all else fails--and a home loss last week to Memphis suggested just that-a team hoping to make the field can rely on the strength of its league. Conference USA is rated sixth by the RPI, therefore it deserves at least four entrants. UAB's league record would suggest it be one of the four.