Blue Jays are ready to ante up in A.L. East

Ken Rosenthal

A new deep-pockets force is about to emerge in the American League East, one that will bid for high-priced talent at the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline, next offseason and the two seasons beyond.

Would you believe it's the Blue Jays?

It's the baseball equivalent of a working-class stiff hitting the lottery. Even under owner Ted Rogers' plan to spend $210 million in payroll over the next three seasons, the Blue Jays won't match the outrageous credit card limits of the Yankees and Red Sox. But as general manager J.P. Ricciardi puts it, "This allows us to get in the fight."

Rarely, if ever, has a franchise created this kind of opportunity. The Blue Jays recently bought the SkyDome to gain control over their revenues. They've cut their losses from a reported $84 million in 2001 to less than $10 million in '04.

And with their payroll likely to remain about $50 million this season, they could spend an average of $80 million in '06 and '07.

The accompanying rise in expectations would make some general managers nervous. Not Ricciardi, who would rather have the resources, thank you very much. "You try to put a bullpen together with no money," he says, barely hiding his disgust.

A defeatist would suggest that the Blue Jays might fare just as well at $50 million as they would at $80 million competing in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. But Ricciardi's friend and former boss, A's G.M. Billy Beane, says the team is in a strong position--blessed with enough money to make smart decisions but not enough to get totally stupid.

For once, the Blue Jays' historic difficulty in attracting free agents actually might work to their benefit. Better they should focus on trading for expensive players, retaining the youngsters they want and paying market value for their top draft picks. The 2005-06 free-agent class looks bleak, anyway.

Rogers made his surprise payroll announcement February 2, late in the free-agent game. Ricciardi could have made like P. Diddy splurging on bling-bling, but he declined to go multiple years on free-agent outfielder Magglio Ordonez and passed on a trade for Cubs reliever Kyle Farnsworth, a potential free agent.

The Blue Jays are too far away from contention to take high-risk gambles or pursue one-year solutions. Their midseason targets likely will be players eligible for arbitration whom they could control through at least '06--players such as A's lefthander Barry Zito, Brewers righthander Ben Sheets and Reds outfielder Austin Kearns. The Blue Jays' farm system, though not elite, is deeper than the Yankees' and Red Sox's, increasing Toronto's leverage in trades.

Eventually, the Blue Jays also could be a dumping ground for inflated contracts, particularly from this year's free-agent market. Let's say the Mariners flop in '05 and the early part of '06 and want to trade third baseman Adrian Beltre. The Blue Jays could absorb his remaining salary.

It probably is a good thing Ricciardi received his payroll boost too late to participate in what Beane called an "irrational" free-agent market. "Now they have time to plan," Beane says. "They've got a chance to be rational, stretch the money a bit further." The ability to plan is an advantage in itself. Most teams have no idea what their payrolls will be in '06, much less '07.

"We're never going to be the Yankees or Red Sox--that's fine," Ricciardi says. "But this is fun now."

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Braves fans should enjoy Hudson while they can

In the past three offseasons, the Braves have lost one prominent free agent after another, from pitchers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine to outfielders Gary Sheffield and J.D. Drew.

Atlanta's recent track record makes it difficult to believe it will retain its latest potential free agent-righthander Tim Hudson, whom they acquired from the A's for righthander Juan Cruz, lefthander Dan Meyer and outfielder Charles Thomas.

Hudson's agent. Paul Cohen, has given the Braves the same deadline he gave the A's, saying that Hudson, 29. will test the free-agent market if he does not sign a contract extension by March 1. The Braves, operating under familiar payroll restrictions, will keep Hudson only if he is willing to accept a steep discount to play 100 miles from his home in Auburn, Ala.

It could happen, given Hudson's closeness to his family. But it's not likely,

As the top free agent in a thin class of starting pitchers, Hudson almost certainly would command a deal of at least five years and $75 million. The Braves don't figure to pay anywhere near that. The last major contract they awarded was the six-year, $75 million deal they gave center fielder Andruw Jones in November 2001.

Hudson's March 1 deadline puts the Braves in a difficult spot, considering he has not thrown a pitch for the team. Hudson has a 92-39 career record with a 3.30 ERA, but he missed more than a month with a left oblique strain last season and posted a 5.67 ERA after September 1. Lefthanded hitters batted .298 against him last season, a career high.

The best guess: one year and out.

speed reads

OK, so the Tigers can void the final four seasons of Magglio Ordonez's five-year, $75 million contract if he spends more than 25 days on the D.L. with a reoccurrence of his left knee injury. It's still not enough protection. What if Ordonez injures his hip, ankle or back while favoring the knee? Ordonez, 31, is likely to decline even if healthy. This is too much of a risk.

It's laughable to hear the Yankees deny they had knowledge of Jason Giambi's steroid use when they signed him in December 2001. Virtually everyone in the sport suspected that Biambi was on the juice. The Yankees never would have entertained voiding the rest of Giambi's contract if he still were productive.

Say what you want about agent Scott Boras, but he landed the top four free-agent contracts this offseason and six of the top 12. If Ordonez receives his full contract, those six deals will add up to $389 million. Using an agent's standard 5 percent commission as a guideline, Boras' cut would be--cha-ching!--$19.45 million.

INSIDE DISH

The Tigers believe they have solid inside information on the condition of RF Magglio Ordonez's surgically repaired left knee. Team physician Kyle Anderson, a knee specialist who also works with the NFL's Detroit Lions, advised club officials that the majority of the risk would be this season, giving the Tigers confidence that they needed an out only after the first season of Ordonez's five-year, $75 million contract. G.M. David Dombrowski also received positive reports from Ordonez's Miami-based physical therapist, Lisa Kearns, with whom he worked previously as G.M. of the Marlins. > Ordonez has hit only one home run in 135 career at-bats at Detroit's Comerica Park, but his nine doubles indicate that a 50-double season is within reach, provided he stays healthy. Ordonez boasts an impressive .941 career on-base/slugging percentage with runners in scoring position and hits almost as well against righthanders as lefthanders. Then again, the Tigers could end up paying him $11 million more than the Mariners will pay 3B Adrian Beltre over the same five-year term. Beltre, 25, is six years younger than Ordonez and a better defender at a more difficult position to fill. > The Mets, in need of a better setup man than RHP Mike DeJean, could use their back-of-the-rotation depth to swing a trade for a reliever. RHPs Jae Seo, Aaron Heliman and Matt Ginter, rotation fillers at best, have drawn varying degrees of interest from other clubs. The Mets also continue to dangle LF Cliff Floyd, seeking a younger outfielder in return. > The Rangers remain in the hunt for a bat, and believe it or not, they have young pitching to trade. Their past two first-round picks, Class A RHP Thomas Diamond and Class A LHP John Danks, probably are untouchable, but the team boasts several other pitching prospects who are likely to start the season at Class AA. > The Rockies are another perennially pitching-thin team suddenly brimming with young arms. One to watch is RHP Ubaldo Jimenez, who had a 2.23 ERA, 61 strikeouts and only 12 walks in 44% innings at Class A Visalia before missing most of the final three months of last season with a stress fracture in his fight shoulder. If healthy, Jimenez could be at Class AAA by the All-Star break. > The Astros continue to look for a center fielder but might need to settle on Jason Lane at the position. Another option: Promote Willy Taveras to play center until RF Lance Berkman returns from knee surgery, most likely in May, then slide Lane over from right. > The perception that Mets RF Mike Cameron regressed defensively last season appears overblown. The Mets, using a defensive metric called "hits per balls in play," note that Cameron was neck and neck with highly regarded Cardinals CF Jim Edmonds all season. Cameron ranked fifth among National League center fielders in zone rating, which measures the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive zone, according to STATS Inc. > RHP Elmer Dessens, who pitched five solid innings to lift Mexico to a 7-5 victory over Puerto Rico in the Caribbean Series, should be a leading contender for the fifth spot in the Dodgers' rotation. Dessens worked almost exclusively in relief after the Dodgers acquired him from the Diamondbacks on August 19, posting a 3.20 ERA in 12 appearances. "Toward the end of the year, he gained some things back, stuff-wise," a scout says.

KEN ROSENTHAL

kenrosenthal@sportingnews.com

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