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While maybe not on the level of Carnac the Magnificent, Arizona coach Lute Olson is proving to be pretty good at this prognostication business. Before the season started, he called this year's Pac-10 the most competitive he has seen in a long time. Yeah, right, I thought. He's just trying to hype up a conference that generally is dissed by those east of the Rockies. He also said whichever team wound up in first place could have as many as four or five losses in conference play. I felt that to be highly unlikely, seeing how the two top dogs, Arizona and Washington, were playing each other only twice.

But a few funny things happened on the way to the Staples Center, where the conference tournament is played. Washington State ended a 38-game losing streak to Olson's Wildcats--in Tucson. Oregon State knocked off highly ranked Washington. UCLA made up a 21-point deficit against the Huskies and won at home. UCLA got blasted at home by Stanford and Cal.

It seems coach Olson knew what he was talking about. But what does it all mean come Selection Sunday? The big fear in the Pac-10 is that the league will experience the same embarrassment as last season, when only three teams made the NCAA Tournament. Many suggest the number could be two this season. That would seem highly unlikely when you look at the Ratings Percentage Index. Now, I am an old-school type of guy who doesn't put a lot of stock in that sort of numbers-crunching pabulum. Who am I to believe, the RPI or my lying eyes? But it's one of the tools the selection committee relies on, and that bodes well for the conference.

Last week, seven Pac-10 teams ranked in the RPI top 70. As a matter of fact, the Pac-10 is ranked as the second toughest conference, trailing only the ACC. Scoffers are having a field day with this one--even I admit it seems a bit high.

But based on the RPI, I think the Pac-10 will get four teams in. Which two other than Arizona and Washington is pretty much up in the air. But if I had to don a turban and cape and place an envelope to my head, the answer would be ... UCLA and Stanford.

Marques Johnson is a college basketball analyst for FOX Sports Net.

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