There won't be a frenzy over these free agents

Sporting News, The, June 30, 1997 by Dave D'alessandro

More than 150 players win lose their jobs Tuesday, and the vast majority of them will spend the next few months cursing their wretched timing.

Put simply, this is not the best summer to become a free agent. Most teams over the salary cap have intractable budget problems and have only a $1 million exception slot in which to sign a free agent. The teams under the cap are saving their funds for a better-stocked market such as the one that will open next summer.

"This summer, you won't see anything resembling the kind of frenzy you saw last year, when there were good teams with substantial room, and very good free agents out there that everyone was coveting," Knicks president Ernie Grunfeld says.

This time around, however, there is no Shaquille O'Neal, no Alonzo Mourning, no Juwan Howard or Gary Payton on the market. Reggie Miller, Steve Smith and Latrell Sprewell are no longer available to the highest bidder, as they were a year ago.

Result: an uneventful offseason, aside from the usual flurry of trade activity that results from the annual cap increase (it goes up to $26.9 million August 15). For now, every general manager with any kind of foresight and the cap space to match is thinking about next summer, when a veritable explosion of stars will change the NBA landscape as it did a year ago.

Who will be available next summer? Nobody special -- only every rookie from the class of '95, including Joe Smith, Kevin Garnett, Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace. Oh, and a few decent veterans such as Scottie Pippen, Penny Hardaway, Mookie Blaylock, Christian Laettner, Charles Barkley, Rod Strickland and about a dozen other bona fide luminaries.

By then, more than a dozen teams will have positioned themselves for a big score.

As of now, however, there are only a handful that have created the cap room to pursue a decent player. The expansion teams are in the best position: The Grizzlies and Raptors should have $8 million or $9 million to spend, though it doesn't mean they will do it.

The Pistons could build a bankroll as large as $7 million, if they renounce their free agents (Joe Dumars, Lindsey Hunter, Terry Mills). Ditto for the Trail Blazers, who might decide to renounce Chris Dudley and Cliff Robinson if team officials believe they can use $7 million elsewhere. The Cavaliers have about $4 million to spend, but that can double if they renounce Mark West and Bobby Phills -- and could reach $10 million if they give up on Chris Mills, which they won't.

Let's pause to reiterate the cap rule that confused almost everybody last summer -- particularly Miami, judging by the Juwan Howard snafu. A team gets its maximum cap room only if it first renounces its free agents.

Also, if a team doesn't renounce a free agent, a cap charge is applied. That is an amount equal to 150 percent (or 200 percent, if the player makes than the league average) of that player's last salary. And this figure stays on the cap until his team renounces him.

That last part is the killer. If a team truly wants to keep its players and add someone, the cap charge drastically cuts its bankroll.

The rule is especially applicable to teams such as the Suns, who have four free agents who were part of their rotation. If they renounce them all, the Suns can accumulate about $10 million in cap room. But Phoenix figures to try to sign Kevin Johnson, Hot Rod Williams, Rex Chapman and Mark Bryant for one more year, and then make a big splash next summer after all these contracts expire.

Until then, there are 154 veterans looking for jobs this summer, only a handful of which are likely to cause a ripple in the league's personnel landscape.

Let's go shopping. Here's a list of available free agents:

The A Class. Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing.

You already know how these will turn out. Jordan will re-sign with the Bulls for $36 million, unless Jerry Reinsdorf's brain spasms last all summer. And Ewing will command David Robinson/Hakeem Olajuwon money. Figure the terms to be three seasons at $14 million per. Phoenix, Cleveland and Detroit will recruit Ewing initially -- if only because they have the cap room to do it -- but the Knicks can exceed any offer made to him.

The B-plus Class ($6 million to $9 million annually). Brian Williams, Kevin Johnson.

Williams tried to make his killing last summer -- he even turned down the Clippers' $4 million-per-year offer -- to enroll in Chicago's Get a Cheap Ring Plan. He did well enough to earn a decent payoff, and there won't be a shortage of suitors this time around. Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit are interested and can meet his price. KJ, the Hamlet of the Southwest still is deciding whether to give it a go. Figure on Phoenix giving him a one-year offer he can't refuse.

The B Class ($4 million to $6 million). Brian Grant, Cliff Robinson, Sam Cassell.

Grant opted out of his contract to get here, and although he voiced his delight of Sacramento's decision to bring back coach Eddie Jordan, he will see what kind of offers come his way (Detroit, New Jersey, etc.) before deciding whether he wants the Kings to match it. Robinson, long overdue for a change of scenery, will probably be frustrated by the process. He's a nice player, with great versatility, but he still has a reputation disappearing in the postseason and for mysterious mood swings. He might see the market dry up as soon as Phoenix maps out its plans to look elsewhere. Cassell is included in this group only because he says so. There are still some G.M.s around the league who don't believe he's close to being worth this much money, and some claim he's better off coming off the bench. The Hornets, among others, are willing to pay his price, but the Nets cannot afford to let him walk. Sooner or later, someone will remind Cassell that his search for a coach who trusts him is entering its fifth year, and that he would be nuts to divorce himself from one (John Calipari) who clearly wants him around for a while.