Super guesswork: the 'Boys over the Bills

Sporting News, The, Sept 2, 1996 by Bob Glauber

The way I see it, there are two ways to figure out whats going to happen this year in the NFL. The first way is the more traditional approach - studying rosters, poring over statistics until your eyes glaze over and using other assorted. quasi-scientific theories to answer key questions.

After all trying to determine which of the NFC's three powers - the Cowboys, 49ers and Packers - will emerge from the conference surely requires careful consideration. And what about figuring out that wide-open AFC, where as many as nine teams feel they have a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl, led by the resurgent Bills, the Cinderella Colts and just about every team west of the Mississippi? A daunting task, to be sure.

But if you're simply overwhelmed by all the variables, consider a second approach, a far more practical system that will probably be just as accurate as the first, yet in the end Will be like child's play. Call it the Eeney, Meeney, Miney, Mo Theory of Handicapping.

For our purposes here, we offer a hybrid approach. A little science, a little guesswork, and a lot of finger-crossing. Here goes:

AFC East

1. Bills. Jim Kelly's arm feels great. Thurman Thomas says he feels like he's 25. And look at all that talent on a defense led by Messrs. Smith, Paup and Spielman. Eeney, Meeney, Miney, Mo: It's time to go with Buffalo. See you in N'Awlins, Bills.

2. Patriots. That quarterback you saw wearing No. 11 last year was not the Drew Bledsoe you will see this year. Healthy again, Bledsoe will lead a sizzling offense to a 400-point season and a turnaround from last year's 6-10 nightmare. The defense gets by with a no-name line and gets Bill Parcells back into the playoffs.

3. Colts. Tough to follow last year's glorious run to the last second of the AFC championship game, especially with a retooled offensive line. But there's enough for a wild-card berth from Jim Harbaugh and his merry bunch of ragamuffins.

4. Dolphins. I've been trying to tell you this Jimmy Johnson miracle won't occur overnight. After a sweeping exodus of free agents, salary-cap casualties, trades and injuries, do you believe me now?

5. Jets. The team's 81-year-old owner spent nearly his age in millions to acquire such big-time fee agents as Neil O'Donnell, Jeff Graham and Jumbo Elliott. But playing in what could be the league's most competitive division, Leon Hess won't see an immediate return on his investment.

AFC Central

1. Steelers. It,s a tad presumptuous to expect Jim Miller to lead the Steelers back to the Super Bowl, but in what shapes up as the weakest division in football, the Steelers and their monster defense will win it by default

2. Bengals. This is one exciting offense with Jeff Blake at the controls and explosive wideouts Carl Pickens and Darnay Scott going deep. Throw in a healthy Ki-Jana Carter, and you've got yourself an AFC dark horse that gets closer and closer to the playoffs.

3. Oilers. The dozen or so fans remaining in Houston are clamoring for Steve McNair, but coach Jeff Fisher sticks with Chris Chandler to lead a promising offense that's still a year from playoff contention.

4. Jaguars. Promising young offensive line with tackles Tony Boselli and Leon Searcy. Promising young quarterback in Mark Brunell. Potentially dominant running game with Natrone Means and James Stewart. The defense? Not exactly the second coming of the '85 Bears.

5. Ravens. A moment of silence for our brethren in Cleveland who continue to mourn the day a grinch named Modell stole their hearts. And now a memo to all you giddy Baltimoreans: Enjoy those tailgate parties, because there won't be much to cheer about come game time. A weak running game makes it tough on Vinny Testaverde; an erratic defense makes coach Ted Marchibroda's return to his old stomping ground feel like a bad dream.

AFC West

1. Chargers. If you subscribe to the every-other-year's-a-good-one theory for Bobby Ross, Chargers - which I do - then they're ready. Solid defense and the emergence of Aaron Hayden puts them back on top in a wild, wild western race.

2. Chiefs. Marty Schottenheimer will do his usual bang-up job in the regular season, but I just can't see Steve Bono getting deep into the playoffs.

3. Broncos. Something new for John Elway & Co. - a decent defense. The Broncos are still not quite ready for a long-awaited return to the playoffs, but an improved defense featuring rookie linebacker John Mobley offers legitimate hope for the future. Think those knees will hold up another year or two, John?

4. Seahawks. Rick Mirer's best won't be good enough just yet, nor will an undermanned defense. But look at the bright side, Seattle fans. Fourth place still means a .500 record. There just isn't room at the top for this improving team.

5. Raiders. I don't know about you, but when I see a defensive coordinator quit for so-called "personal reasons" two weeks before the opener, I think one thing: more proof of an Al Davis-driven demise. That leaky offensive line doesn't bode well for Jeff Hostetler, either. Can someone please fire the owner? Like, now?