Three regulars and UNC to shape Alliance scene

Sporting News, The, Nov 10, 1997 by Tom Dienhart, Mike Huguenin

Before the season, everyone pointed to September 20 as the key Saturday of the season. And while that day was important--especially to the title hopes of Nebraska (looking good) and Tennessee (looking not so good)--this Saturday has become the be-all, end-all.

There will be two matchups of top five teams--Florida State at North Carolina and Michigan at Penn State--and positions in the Rose and Orange bowls likely will be set. But there's no question that North Carolina has the most to gain--and most to lose.

"Before the season, people were saying,'Is this your year?"' North Carolina coach Mack Brown says. "I really hope this isn't `our year.' I hope that we would be in a position like Florida State in the future where they anticipate an Alliance Bowl every year. And you have to get your first one to get things going."

The other three schools involved in "Titanic Struggle Saturday" are established national powers. But the Tar Heels are a newcomer to the national scene, and coach Mack Brown's program can be legitimized with a win. An upset win over Florida State--and make no mistake, it would be an upset if the Heels win--means, in all likelihood, the Tar Heels face Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. After playing FSU, the Heels have Clemson and Duke. Neither is in Carolina's class. But a loss to the Seminoles means the Heels could spend another holiday in Jacksonville, at the Gator Bowl, playing a team from the Big East. Yawn.

Here's the reasoning: There are six Alliance bids, with the champions of the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big East each claiming one. That leaves two at-large spots. One almost certainly will go to the Big Ten runner-up, because there's a strong possibility the second-place Big Ten team will have a 10-1 record.

That leaves one spot, and the SEC runner-up (possibly Georgia) may be ranked higher than Carolina if the Heels lose to FSU. Actually the Heels should thank Georgia for beating Fiorida. Had Florida won another SEC title there would have been two SEC teams in the Alliance, because a Peyton Manning-led Tennessee team would have been a lock for a bid.

You also can't overlook the possibility of Kansas State as an Alliance team. The rationale? The Fiesta Bowl, which gets the Alliance's No. 4 and No. 6 picks, is played on New Year's Eve, which means the game will be a TV ratings disaster. Since one team in the Fiesta almost assuredly will be the Big East champ (if two-loss Virginia Tech wins out, the Hokies win the league), Fiesta organizers may want to make sure they at least have a sellout crowd. And though K-State really hasn't beaten anybody of note, the Wildcats should finish 10-1 and unquestionably would bring a ton of fans, which would bring a gleam to any bowl organizer's eye.

The best thing North Carolina can do, then, is win. This game should come down to big plays. Neither team has been able to run effectively--and neither has allowed opponents to run. That means the onus is on the quarterbacks and wide receivers to make the big play.

"I don't think this FSU team is any different than their past teams," Brown says. "They have been the most dominant football program for the past 10 years. They really do it on defense; they stop the run. They probably put as much pressure (as anybody) on the opposing team's quarterback.

"Offensively, they are so good at striking with the big play. I think their receivers and running backs are more explosive after the catch than anybody I've seen in college football. They've got so many guys who, when they touch the ball, give them a chance to win. So their team keeps so much pressure on you."

Florida State's Thad Busby has been criticized as inconsistent even though he is 11 as a starter the past two seasons. Busby also is playing superbly this season. Still, there's a school of thought that he will play poorly once matched against a defense with good athletes--a defense dike North Carolina's, for instance.

Busby has excellent wide receivers in E.G. Green and Peter Warrick. As good as UNC's secondary is, Green and Warrick will get open and make plays as long as Busby has time to get it to them. Thus, UNC must get a pass rush.

The Heels need end Greg Ellis, tackle Vonnie Holliday and outside linebacker Brian Simmons to come up huge. Conversely, FSU has been getting exceptional play from its defense. End Andre Wadsworth is a sure-fire top 10 draft pick, outside linebacker Sam Cowart has recovered nicely from a severe knee injury that forced him to miss last season and the interior of the defensive line has been better than expected.

Their mission will be to get to Carolina quarterback Oscar Davenport, a Florida native who has done a great job since taking over the starting job midway through the sea son. Davenport's mobility will serve him well against the 'Noles, who no doubt realize that if they get to Davenport consistently, they'll win this game. Carolina also has big-play receivers in L.C. Stevens, Na Brown and Octavus Barnes. And those guys will find room against FSU's secondary.