A chilling forecast

Sporting News, The, Dec 30, 1996 by Paul Attner

So the boss says I need to write a playoff preview piece--and by the way, I'm covering the NFC games after the first round I want to think big picture here, but all I can envision is Green Bay, Ice Bowl 1967. And being extremely, incredibly cold which is what I never want to be. Covering the NFC means two likely games in Green Bay so I call that city's weather bureau office, hoping for encouragement. Perhaps January in Green Bay is visited by an occasional warming trend, say to a balmy 20. Instead, I get laughter.

"It'll probably be snowing like mad,n the weatherman finally blurts out, once he stops giggling. "And we'll be lucky if we get to zero as a high. Wouldn't be surprised if it was 20 below for the (NFC) championship game (January 12)."

But he saves the best for last. "If it's below zero and there is any kind of wind, there's no way you can dress warm enough." Then he starts laughing again.

No place like home

The safest way to go when making NFL predictions is to stick with the home team, particularly in the playoffs. Forget that in two of the last four AFC title games and in one of the last four NFC championship contests, the visitors have won. The NFL of the 1990s, where unfettered free agency has changed everything, doesn't always reflect the cliches of the past But this time around think logically. Do you really believe anyone will beat Denver or Green Bay at home?

We are talking crazy weather here. We are talking altitude. We are talking nutty fans and impressive track records and psychological edges and, oh yeah, the league's two best teams entering the playoffs. Never in the same year have the respective conference champions enjoyed more substantial home-field edges than these two franchises do this season. Here are the most important statistics to keep in mind:

* Since 1974, Denver has been the most difficult place to win in the NFL--and the Broncos have lost only one of nine home playoff games. They have won 18 of their last 21 in Mile High Stadium.

* In their last 16 home games playing when the temperature is 35 degrees or colder, the Packers under Brett Favre have not lost. And they have not fallen in a home game of any kind since the first week of the 1995 season, their only defeat in their last 27 Lambeau Field contests.

This is not just home-field advantage for both teams. This is borderline unfair. Every other aspect of these playoffs is minimized by this one factor.

"What is bigger than huge?" says Redskins general manager Charley Casserly when asked about the impact of the homefield advantage enjoyed by Denver and Green Bay. "The first thing I usually look at in the playoffs is the quarterback, but this year, with these two teams you look at home field first and then after a while go to everything else."

I look at weather first. If I had my way, playoff games would aL be held at warm-weather sites. Love those shots of a sun-drenched crowd, everyone in shorts and T-shirts, just soaking up the rays. But if the NFL insists, as it does, that the teams with the best records, no matter their location, host games, then we might as well have football weather of days gone by. When I was growing up, before domes were built in Detroit and Minnesota, it seemed a lot more games were played in the snow and cold. I can remember seeing Frank Tripucka, the Broncos' quarterback in their AFL days, throwing passes into heavy snows at Mile High, and marveling how he could see his receiver, much less complete a pass. And Bud Grant ignoring the elements in Minnesota And the Packers and Lions playing in the snow on Thanksgiving Day.

Fast forward now to January 12. Conference championship games in Denver and Green Bay. The potential is awesome, football the old-fashioned way, in the cold and wind and blowing snow, with the fields torn up and faces of fans barely visible, peeking through layers of protection. And unlike Buffalo, no artificial turf to remind us of the intrusion of unwelcomed innovation.

So what if Denver--the city, not the team--might not live up to its end of this scenario?

"It could be anywhere from 15 below to 70 above," says Ross Kurcab, who carries the title of the Broncos' turf manager but has become their resident expert on Denver weather. "Denver natives say that if you don't like the weather, wait a minute. But the average high in January is in the low 40s."

But I ten him of Frank Tripucka. And of a Monday night game in October 1984 when a blizzard feE during a contest against--the irony of ironies--Green Bay. He hesitates a bit. "Well, it does snow 61 inches a year here usually over 15 to 25 different days. But we've had only one snow game the last two years."

Which, to my way of thinking, means Denver is due. If it can snow heavily in Denver in September, which is what has happened the last two years, why not January 12? After all, a few days before I talked to Kurcab, it had been 16 below and snowing in Denver. So what if it warmed up to 55 in the next 48 hours? If the timing is right, Denver could be almost as bad as Green Bay.