Final Four mystery guests and other tourney musings

Sporting News, The, Feb 16, 1998 by Mike DeCourcy

There is at least one each year lurking in the shadows of the tournament bracket. If you can unearth this team, the one that will join the elite at the Final Four, you can amaze your friends, be among the first on that club's bandwagon and win oodles of money in the office NCAA Tournament pool.

How many people had Florida in 1994, Oklahoma State in 1995, Mississippi State in 1996 or, indeed, Arizona one year ago?

Locating their successor requires foresight, an eye for detail and luck, but most important, you've got to look. This is one of February's pressing questions: Who'll emerge in March?

Three places to start: Maryland, Arkansas and Cincinnati.

The Terps are the only team in the country that has beaten one-half of the nation's ruling quartet nailing North Carolina and Kansas. They have sporadic point guard problems, but three go-to players in Laron Profit, Obinna Ekezie and Sarunas Jasikevicius, solid shooters at nearly every spot and the flexibility to play a stiff zone defense when it'll help.

If Arkansas is to make it, shooters Pat Bradley and Tank Wallace cannot afford an off game--at least not at the same time. But this is a team with depth, decent size and a proven system that has produced three Final Four team this decade. The Razorbacks have lost only once on the mainland, an overtime game at Kentucky. Why aren't these guys in the top 10?

Cincinnati showed what its defense can do when it held South Carolina to 18 first-half points. The Bearcats don't get the direction they need from the point and can't always find their offense, but they are as athletic as any team in the nation and rebound with far bigger teams.

Some other questions to ponder as February progresses:

* What team is on the spot? New Mexico. It was a big deal a couple years ago when the Lobos finally discovered the NCAA Tournament is not a 24-hour affair. Fans now are aching to see their season extend a whole extra week, to the Sweet 16, and New Mexico is beginning to suggest it's learning to play outside the Pit. Seniors Clayton Shields and Royce Olney are gone after this, so this may be the best shot.

But the defense must tighten if the Lobos are to beat two good teams in one weekend. There's too much reliance on pickoffs and deflections.

* What coach? Brian Ellerbe, Michigan. He's coach-ing for his life, in a sense. The Wolverines are good enough to play deep into March, volatile enough to become everyone's favorite first-round victim.

Even if Ellerbe were to get the Wolverines to the Final Four as their interim coach, it's hard to imagine mighty UM wanting to be caught in the same trap as when it hired Steve Fisher, who left the school little choice when he won the title in his sixth game in 1989.

* And what player? Raef LaFrentz, Kansas. He came back to do what? To break his hand? To finish second behind Antawn Jamison for the Naismith, Wooden and USBWA player of the year awards? No, LaFrentz is back as a senior largely to compete in the Final Four and win an NCAA title. He is in much the same position this year as Tim Duncan was last.

* Who's a likely candidate to step up the coaching ladder? Tim Welsh, Iona. It's not often the best team in the Metro Atlantic winds up winning the league's automatic bid, but if you see Welsh on the Gaels' bench in the tournament next month, it might be for the last time.

Welsh has a 42-12 record over the past two years, and guiding Iona to its first NCAA berth since 1985 would make him an even hotter prospect. There are no major Eastern jobs sure to open, but if somebody moves on, Welsh could move up.

* What player could have the greatest impact for his team? Mateen Cleaves, Michigan State. In 1991, the Spartans rode the play of All-American Steve Smith into the field and lasted two rounds. In 1995, All-American Shawn Respert shot them in and Weber State shot them down.

Cleaves has been one of the four dominant players in college basketball over the past month, attacking opponents with his passing, shooting, running of the break, ball-pressure defense and knack for creating turnovers. Could he lead his Michigan State teammates as far as that other Spartans star, Magic Johnson?

* What games bear watching? You know all about the Duke-North Carolina rematch February 28 at Cameron Indoor Stadium, but there should be some worthy diversions to draw your attention.

There's Utah at Colorado State on Saturday, which is nothing less than essential to the Rams' hopes for an NCAA bid. There's Oklahoma State at Kansas State on February 21, which might help relieve the muddle the middle of the Big 12 has become.

And how about Princeton at Penn on March 3, the one game the Tigers have a realistic shot to lose before the tournament begins?

* Question of the moment: Your team is headed for the tournament and shows signs of being able to make a nice run, maybe even become one of those mystery-guest entries in the Final Four. So which of the four likely No. I seeds--North Carolina, Duke, Kansas and Arizona--do you want your guys to share a region with?