Transportation Industry
Long-term, a healthy world railway market - world perspective
Railway Age, Jan, 2004 by David Bringinshaw
The worldwide market for railway equipment is forecast to jump from 56.7 billion Euros this year to at least 70 billion Euros in five years time, with very few sectors where demand is expected to fall. That amounts to sustained growth at an average annual rate of 4%. These figures come from a new study of the worldwide market conducted by SCI Verkehr, Germany, for Vossloh, that includes virtually all aspects of the rail industry--both main line and urban transit--and all types of materials and equipment (except for passenger information, fare collection, shop equipment, and maintenance contracts for new roiling stock orders). Vossloh has done the railway industry a great service by allowing SCI Verkehr to publish a summary of its report. Mark Doing, one of the authors, says there is a growing realization among railway equipment suppliers that it is in everyone's interest to share market information to try to gain a reliable insight into market trends.
The survey was compiled between April and September 2003 using information from a variety of sources: the World Bank, international railway associations such as the UIC, UITP, and the Association of European Railway Industries (Unife), SCI Verkehr's own databases, and investigation of specific markets. It notes the cyclical nature of the railway equipment market. Nevertheless, the overall trend is upward in nearly all sectors. Asia shows the strongest growth, with an overall annual increase of 6%. Virtually all sectors for infrastructure show very strong growth in Asia, ranging from 5% to 11%. The demand for metro trains there also shows good growth potential, with an annual increase of 8%. The survey recognizes some specific developments, such as the introduction of ERTMS/ETCS in Europe, which will supplement an already-buoyant C&S market.
Indeed, railway investment is increasing. The European Union, for example, is trying to fast-track some of the Trans-European Network projects, which would give a huge boost to railways in Eastern Europe. Brazil's private freight railways are reporting excellent growth that will enable them to invest record amounts. In North America, CN, which has gone from strength to strength, is increasing its financial resources.
The report does include some anomalies. For example, the term "standard gauge" is used throughout when it actually means main line railways of all gauges. "LRT" is used to denote investment in both metro and light rail systems.
WORLDWIDE RAIL MARKET (in Euros)
Total market: 56.7 billion
Annual growth rate : 4%
Signaling and
telecommunications
5.9 billion 6%
Motive power and
roling stock 22.2 billion 3%
(Electrification 4.4 billion)
Total infrastructure
28.6 billion 5%
(Track 24.2 billion)
Note: Table made from pie chart.
REGIONAL BREAKDOWN
Annual
2003 2008 growth rate
(IN BILLIONS OF EUROS)
Canada/USA 9.42 10.77 3%
Latin America 1.29 1.51 3%
Western Europe 21.47 25.91 4%
Eastern Europe 4.51 5.61 5%
CIS 4.16 4.86 3%
Asia 13.73 18.66 6%
Australia/NZ 0.82 1.00 4%
Africa/Middle East 1.38 1.60 3%
Total 56.78 69.92
INFRASTRUCTURE
Track
(IN MILLIONS OF EUROS AND ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE)
Main Line Metro/LRT
Canada/USA 4,442 5% 222 4%
Latin America 568 2% 113 2%
Western Europe 7,734 5% 2,320 3%
Eastern Europe 1,503 5% 150 3%
CIS 1,977 3% 40 2%
Asia 4,687 8% 703 5%
Australia/NZ 381 5% 19 2%
Africa/Middle East 400 3% 20 5%
Total 21,692 3,587
Electrification
(IN MILLIONS OF EUROS AND ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE)
Main Line Metro/LRT
Canada/USA 3 8% 57 5%
Latin America 3 5% 33 3%
Western Europe 719 6% 647 2%
Eastern Europe 322 7% 81 3%
CIS 409 3% 10 2%
Asia 683 9% 342 5%
Australia/NZ 5 3% 4 3%
Africa/Middle East 17 3% 6 1%
Total 2,161 1,180
Signalling &
train control
(IN MILLIONS OF EUROS AND ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE)
Main Line Metro/LRT
Canada/USA
Latin America 208 1% 45 5%
Western Europe 15 3% 12 1%
Eastern Europe 1,230 5% 560 3%
CIS 407 4% 61 5%
Asia 334 3% 3 3%
Australia/NZ 959 11% 480 9%
Africa/Middle East 126 5% 9 2%
132 5% 11 2%
Total
3,412 1,181
Telecommunications
(IN MILLIONS OF EUROS AND ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE)
Main Line Metro/LRT
Canada/USA 150 2% 21 4%
Latin America 8 8% 4 2%
Western Europe 241 6% 121 2%
Eastern Europe 101 5% 25 4%
CIS 141 2% 1 2%
Asia 230 8% 92 8%
Australia/NZ 30 2% 2 3%
Africa/Middle East 155 2% 5 5%
Total 1,056 271
MOTIVE POWER & ROLLING STOCK
High-
Speed Electric Diesel
Trains Locos Locos
(IN MILLIONS OF EUROS AND ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROVRN SATE)
Canada/USA 10 7% 6 3% 920 4%
Latin America - 12 4% 185 5%
Western Europe 850 6% 1,018 3% 810 4%
Eastern Europe 10 8% 347 5% 333 4%
CIS - 215 3% 229 3%
Asia 500 5% 535 4% 841 4%
Australia/NZ - 21 2% 104 4%
Africa/Middle East - 149 4% 145 5%
Total 1,370 2,303 3,587
Metro
DMUs EMUS Trains
(IN MILLIONS OF EUROS AND ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROVRN SATE)
Canada/USA 10 5% 195 5% 350 2%
Latin America 30 6% 72 5% 40 4%
Western Europe 552 4% 1,703 4% 730 2%
Eastern Europe 102 6% 166 5% 250 6%
CIS 39 3% 243 4% 30 7%
Asia 289 5% 1,767 5% 450 8%
Australia/NZ 10 5% 44 4% -
Africa/Middle East 10 5% 41 5% -
Total 1,042 4,231
LRVs Coaches
(IN MILLIONS OF EUROS AND ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROVRN SATE)
Canada/USA 190 4% 60 ([dagger])
Latin America 10 4% 40 -1%
Western Europe 660 2% 600 -2%
Eastern Europe 60 6% 240 1%
CIS 20 6% 320 2%
Asia 130 5% 500 ([dagger])
Australia/NZ 20 -5% 10 ([dagger])
Africa/Middle East 10 ([dagger]) 180 ([dagger])
Total 1,090 1,950
1,850
Wagons
(IN MILLIONS OF EUROS AND ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROVRN SATE)
Canada/USA 2,000 15%
Latin America 150 6%
Western Europe 970 1%
Eastern Europe 350 6%
CIS 450 8%
Asia 540 3%
Australia/NZ 40 ([dagger])
Africa/Middle East 100 2%
Total 4,600
([dagger]) no growth envisaged
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