The North American passenger rail market

Railway Age, March, 2006 by Greg Gormick

Analyzing the state of the rail passenger and rail transit industries on both sides of the 49th parallel at the dawn of 2006, you'd have to fall back on a line used by many a stand-up comic: There's good news and bad news.

The good news is on the performance side. Thanks to volatile gasoline prices, highway congestion, and the sheer misery of air travel in the post-9/11 world, North Americans are voting with their feet. For the third quarter of 2005, the American Public Transportation Association reported that nationwide light rail ridership was up 8.8%, commuter rail by 4.6%, and heavy rail by 4.3%--the highest growth rates of all the transit modes. Some systems posted double-digit increases, and demand is outstripping capacity. Even the dip in gasoline prices in the latter part of 2005 did nothing to cool the ardor of an increasing number of commuters.

More good news came on the transit funding fronts. Passage of last year's Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act--A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) guarantees $52.6 billion in Federal Transit Administration funds through 2009, including $22.7 billion for capital investment, $9.3 billion for New Starts, and $8.5 billion for fixed-guideway modernization. The Government of Canada also made good on its pledge to begin sustained funding for its cities by allocating an escalating portion of the federal gas tax for transit and other municipal projects. Fears this would be jeopardized by the Jan. 23 election of a minority Conservative government in Canada have been allayed by the appointment of a transport minister who is a former city councilor and transit system chairman.

The bad news is courtesy of a Bush Administration that can only be described as schizophrenic, frustrating, and just plain wrong in its transportation choices. Take FTA funding, for example. Despite President Bush's State of the Union call for an end to America's oil addiction, the administration seems to be having what real estate agents would call buyer's remorse. The FTA's FY2007 budget pulled back $100 million approved just last summer, reducing by half the amount earmarked to assist the development and construction of smaller streetcar, LRT, and commuter rail projects. FTA's call for a closer look at "non-fixed-guideway transportation corridors"--read, non-rail--haven't filled pro-rail advocates' hearts with joy either. And on the Amtrak front, you'd have to think the Administration is set on a derailment, not the reform it preaches.

So, a good news year or a bad news year? Maybe it was just another typically wacky year in the typically wacky life of North American transportation. But what can't be denied is the stunning public support as the passengers keep on coming, the practitioners continue the good fight, and the trains, trolleys, and subways move record numbers of North Americans safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively.

Intercity Passenger Rail Systems

Asked in 2004 about his future, Amtrak President David Gunn replied, "I serve at the pleasure of the board and, as you know, I tend to be pretty outspoken, so they can always determine they need a quieter president." On Nov. 9, 2005, they did. Gunn was fired for, among other things, opposing a Northeast Corridor spin-off, long-haul discontinuances, and other "reform" initiatives he labeled destructive.

And so, the politically appointed Amtrak board shunted aside the president who led the corporation to its healthiest state ever, when measured in terms of traffic and state of good repair. FY2005 was the third straight year of ridership growth, hitting 25.4 million. This was accomplished in the face of major service disruptions such as the sidelining of the high-speed Acela Express fleet in April with brake disc problems, long annulments from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, mudslides and washouts in the Northwest, and on-going Class I capacity constraints that are bedeviling ontime performance.

The past year's successes have given advocates in Congress plenty of grist for their mills as they fight to prevent the starvation and dismemberment of today's nationwide Amtrak. Refurbishment of the equipment and service on the Empire Builder provide good examples of the reform supporters want to see, inasmuch as they boosted traffic and revenue, while containing costs. The project--a template for upgrading the entire long-haul fleet--drew 15% more riders and 22.4% more revenue in September than the year before.

Record loads were handled on virtually all state-funded 403(b) corridors. Strong growth was registered by the Keystone (18.6%), Hiawatha (14.1%), and Downeaster (10.0%) corridors, with the most impressive gain on Oklahoma's Heartland Flyer (23.1%). Ongoing state-funded capital improvements in these corridors are expected to drive ridership even higher this year. Key among these will be completion of the multi-year rebuilding of the Philadelphia Harrisburg Keystone Corridor, scheduled for this fall. The addition of more connecting Thruway bus services and the slashing of many rural Greyhound routes are both expected to help keep growth on a roll.