Computer modeling's role expands: a Railway Age/SYSTRA conference illustrated how computer modeling has progressed from an experimental speciality to an important tool for rail operations and capital planning

Railway Age, April, 2004 by William C. Vantuono

Railway Age and SYSTRA Consulting sponsored the International Conference on Computer Modeling for Operations. Held in Delray Beach, Fla., in late February, it was the first conference in the railway industry to focus specifically on the complex technology of computer modeling and its many applications. "Computer modeling has increased the awareness of technology and its impact on today's railroad and mass transit networks," said SYSTRA President and CEO Al Engel in his opening remarks. "We are trying to make progress in the areas of creating a greater awareness of the applications for modeling tools that already exist and at the same time identity needs for new tools or enhancements of the state-of-the-art."

Topics discussed by a host of international presenters included "The Roles of Computer Modeling in Capital Program Optimization," "Simulation Applications for Training," "Operationally Integrating Freight and Commuter Railroads," "Optimizing Capacity and Safety Through Signal Design," "Small-Scale Applications in Operations," "Transportation Demand Modeling," and "Modeling for Complex Engineering."

Keynote speaker Mysore Nagaraja, president of New York MTA Capital Construction Corp., described how computer modeling has become an indispensable tool in defining, evaluating, and supporting multi-billion-dollar capital projects. "There are four major factors we consider: constructability, operability, design, and transportation need," he said. "A careful analysis of each depends upon computer models." These include travel demand forecasting, rail operations simulation, passenger flow analysis, and construction sequencing. For Long Island Rail Road's East Side Access project (which employs SYSTRA's Rail-Sim technology), "without modeling, we could not have come up with a design that would justify the investment," said Nagaraja. The same is true for the $10 billion that will be invested in Lower Manhattan transit projects.

From a freight railroad perspective, "computer modeling helps us prepare for growth," said Burlington Northern and Santa Fe Railway Vice President-Service Design and Performance Rollin Bredenberg. "The solutions must stay ahead of the volume." Modeling, he said, is used to determine schedule adequacy, choice of routes (for example, paired track operations), capacity and design to allow maintenance, and yield management, among other things. For interline arrangements, "credible modeling can be the impartial mediator in cost/benefit discussions among railroads," he said. For shared freight/passenger arrangements, modeling can be used "to design for growth in both areas."

"Going forward," Bredenberg said, "BNSF will be using computer modeling to test the impact of a changing traffic mix and how it affects dispatching priorities. We urge software vendors to incorporate PTC features into modeling capability, and to assume that we will eliminate fixed signals as a means of conveying authority or protection."

Transport for London Managing Director-Rail Services Ian Brown described the immense challenge facing him in planning the massive Cross Rail project, identifying areas where alternatives and ideas are in competition. This is where computer modeling and simulation can facilitate a more efficient resolution of conflict and cost optimization. Such conflicts of competing ideas and approaches can occur at varying levels, including ridership forecasting, design choices, and operating strategies.