EPA: 54,000 cars in '08

Railway Age, Sept, 2008

Based on first-half 2008 deliveries and existing backlogs, Economic Planning Associates has raised its 2008 estimate of railcar deliveries to 54,000 units, up from 51,500 units, including intermodal equipment. "In spite of a fragile economy and rising equipment prices, demand for railcars has held up surprisingly well," EPA said. "Demand has strengthened in the covered hopper and coal car segments, while tank cars continue to attract interest. The 12,142 cars ordered in the second quarter represented a 15.8% advance over the units ordered in the opening quarter. More important, all of the second-quarter orders were for conventional cars--no intermodal platforms. Equally impressive was the fact that there was only a minimal evaporation of orders from existing backlogs. Only 990 orders were cancelled, a mere 1.5% of the backlogs at the beginning of the second quarter. With assemblies running at the quarterly pace of 14,800 units, mid-year backlogs of 61,600 units represent almost 4.2 quarters of deliveries." For 2009, EPA is projecting 47,000 deliveries, down from its previous projection of 49,800 units, "with only a minimal amount of intermodal platforms." Following that, "far stronger economic activities" as well as replacements needed for older equipment will gradually boost orders. "Beginning in 2010, we look for a pickup in coal cars, Class F flat cars, intermodal platforms, and boxcars, which will boost overall deliveries to 50,000 units in 2010 and 53,300 cars in 2011," EPA said. "Deliveries will then move up to 56,800 units in 2012 and 60,000 cars and platforms in 2013."

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