Evaluating a good season

Camping Magazine, Sept-Oct, 2003 by Michael Shelton

Several months after the ending of the 2002 camp season, a concerned camp director contacted me. As the director of a small nonprofit camp, he had received a bit of critical feedback from the board of directors on his general performance. The director was angry and thought that this was more of a personal attack rather than having anything to do with his actual performance. Through questioning, it became apparent that this man was intelligent and quite knowledgeable about the camp industry. Yet when I asked him to explain how successful the past few seasons had been, his answers indicated quite a bit of naivety. He stated that the past three seasons had gone "very well." When I asked him to define the criteria he used to formulate this conclusion, he looked at me as if l was actually the one in need of coaching.

"I was there the entire summer," he informed me. "I know more than anybody just how well the season went."

The belief that a camp director is the one with the most knowledge regarding the success or lack of success for a camp season is quite prevalent. Indeed, we would expect this to be the case with every organization. The top person--CEO, president, or director--is expected to be the person with the most knowledge about the overall success for his or her organization. However, this is not necessarily true. Having worked as a camp counselor and specialist, I can easily recall information that was never known by the director and the administration, yet still known by the majority of the other staff. We knew how much food was stolen by the kitchen staff. We knew of the sexual assault on a female staff member that was not reported. We knew of the use of the camp vehicle for "joyriding" after hours.

Thus, when a camp director states that he had a "good" season, I proceed to ask what this evaluation is based upon. In most cases, it comes down to his or her general impression. When pushed further, he or she will provide data--such as higher staff retention rates, fewer complaints from parents, and/or fewer children sent home. When asked for exact statistics--Just how many parental complaints did you receive this year? How about last year? What is the comparison in staff retention rates over the past three years?

Deciding whether a season was good or bad is exceedingly more complicated than a director's general impression. Reliance on one's impression as the determining factor is actually a setup for long-term failure. In an example from psychology, researchers have found a consistent pattern in humans of erroneous evaluations for recent events. In one experiment, individuals were instructed to submerge one hand in a bucket of icy water for a minute (this becomes quite a painful experience after only a few seconds). After a brief break, they were given the same instructions except that the length of time was ninety seconds. On the second trial--unbeknownst to the participants--the temperature of the water was raised slightly, though it was still uncomfortably cold. After a seven-minute break, the subjects were called back into the room and informed that they would have to repeat one of the above procedures. They had the choice of which to undergo for a second time. Surprisingly, the majority of the subjects chose the long procedure over the short even though this actually resulted in more discomfort. In tests with aversive sounds and pictures and even uncomfortable medical procedures, participants chose a longer one with a decrease in discomfort at the end over a shorter one without such a pain decrease.

How does this apply to evaluating a good or bad camp season? The quality of an experience at its conclusion has a great effect on evaluations. Thus, camp directors might have an awful season overall, yet a final few good days will skew his or her perspective to a less negative evaluation. Note that the opposite is also true. A bad event in the final few days can mar the evaluation of a fairly good season. Again, an evaluation of a camp's season based on the director's impression is often meaningless without supportive data.

Obstacles to Face in Evaluation

There are other obslacles that directors face in their evaluations. The human brain is a wonderfully complicated organ. It has allowed us to ascend above all other creatures. In order to achieve this position, the brain has had to make use of "shortcuts." One of the tenets of brain research is the brain prefers speed over accuracy. The brain is constantly making decisions every second. These shortcuts are used to process information rapidly. Unfortunately, this speed comes at the price of accuracy.

Reliance on Memory

Many decisions require us to consider information we have learned in the past. A problem with this tactic is that we use the stored information in our memory that is most easily retrieved. A more vivid memory will be recalled even if it is not the most representative example. One of the most commonly cited examples is airline disasters. Statistic after statistic shows that flying is far safer than driving. However, when a person is making a decision to travel, a recent airline tragedy could well sway the decision because of the perceived increased risk of danger.